Member Info for mark-expat

In general , increase your investment tool box to hand , understand how they work and apply them in areas of investment that you have not yet experienced in a measured and controlled way. Try to avoid equities , but if you do , target and hedge against another related stock. Also only go for equites that will recover quickly , for example , when the ftse hit its recent lows the likes of Aviva was bombed out as it invests in many ftse stocks for its managed pensions , etc. There were also other concerns , but in general , when the ftse started to recover, Aviva recovered more than in line. The problem with Aviva though is that it is a financial so you cannot short it or a related stock directly , so you have to sell at the top of the rally and wait for it to come back down as holding and averaging down , imo , does not work as the market is not what it was and imo will unlikely return to its traditional ways again. The likes of AAL in the miners have been bombed for various reasons but recover well when the ftse is in rally mode, I hedge AAL with BLT so when the market goes in a spin , my BLT gains and my AAL closes. When stable I run both in different directions and when it rallies I close BLT and switch it to long alongside AAL. LSE and ICAP will fall quickly in a spin and rise quicly in a rally. The common factor with these stocks is the fact that they all have value, quickly fall in a storm and likewise quickly rise when the sun comes out.

Equities are in general imo being re rated downwards , so any expected return to what the SP is rated at should be dismissed. Equities should be given the cold shoulder unless you can find those that have been bombed out in the wake and are ripe for a rebound on short term market strength. At best , buy in very gently in equities that have can maintain market position , retain good balance sheets and demonstrate good cash flows that can preserve a high yielding dividend , otherwise avoid completely. What must be remembered is that institutional investors need returns and funds are becoming increasingly difficulty to both attract and hold. They account for 9 out of every 10 shares that are being traded and their attitude towards investments have also changed. The days of holding stock long and tying up cash , imo, are generally over. Margin calls are comming in tighter and imposed quicker and this is clearly being demonstrated in the marketplace. These funds will take profit when they can leaving private shareholders trading traditional methods carrying the can. They in effect will rally a stock and dump. Trading currency is down to economic performance and is a good investment on both good and bad news , example, a big interest rate cut and increased government borrowings will shun investment , hence sterlings weakened position.

IG Markets... you can open up various accounts that will enable you to trade the world ,pretty much. My advice would be to strongly get into CFD trading and ditch traditional trading methods. I do not use CFD trading as a leveragetool as I would not put myself in that position,however,it enables you to open short positions to either gain on general market weakness or as a hedge against long positions that you wish to hold on short term weakness. Such an account will also enable you to effectively trade the indices , etc. , which , imo,is where the monies are to be made. The Asian markets are down 5-8% and the time to have opened up shorts on these was yesterday when it was evident that the ftse would not hold onto its gains and the DOW was showing overall weakness. Its like a cycle and as long as you are relaxed and not over exposed you will generally find that you can gain substantial monies at little risk in these markets.

I also consider that at these levels , short terms dips are purely that and that longer term the share is a good recovery play with litlle risk if you happy to hold but always better to buy in slowly on dips,gl

... miners are overall out of favour but some are well positioned to ride any prolongued downturn. GEMD are tarnished by the same brush by association in the sector , but are also held back by the old saying , who is going to buy diamonds in a downturn. Gem has both long term investors and short term traders who both long and short and this pulls the stock into two different directions for no other reason other than it is a traded stock , ie. the swings are created deliberately. I consider that GEMD could fall off upto say 40% from its current position if the markets were in a downward spin and the shorters held position or go up 40% if in stabilised mode and the shorters bought back their positions and bought into any rally at the same time. GEMD has recovered strongly of late and I would suggest that if you are unable to short as a hedge that you wait on the sidelines as economic data and sentiment is not , imo , going to create any overiding reason to buy and weakness is likely to prevail for some time yet but if there is a big dip , take advantage and take on board a few at a time.

now falling back , nice little trading stock , trading update attached. http://www.digitallook.com/news/rns/2451163-10239/MGCR-Interim_Management_Statement.html

... for those looking and able to short term trade swings in both directions , this is my most actively traded and profitable stock over last 6 weeks.

http://www.dividendinvestor.co.uk/?symbol=mgcr&submit=GO ...usually goes ex-div October and May , so ex-div end of May'09... I have posted a link , worth playing around with when you have a few spare minutes. Something that will also add to MGCR's earnings is the recent recovery of the dollar.

MGCR are a very sepcialist engineering firm that has growth in all aspects of its operation. It makes healthy profits and remains progressive. Its dividend yield is c.7% at these levels and it retains a strong balance sheet so the dividend is safe. MGCR has been a target for aquisition in the past and whilst mergers and aquisitions are unlikely whilst Banks continue to do a bad job at patching up their worsening balance sheets , MGCR will remain a target as it is has no flaws. As such there is little downside risk to be attracted to this stock and , imo, a worthy one to hold in your portfolio when weakness presents itself.

... just picked some up at 251.75 , happy to keep these on the back burner and collect what I would consider a safe c.8% pa dividend if they do not show short term recovery. If they show further weakness will hedge with a short and average down as there is no point just watching it and you've got to be in to loose or gain. As I say , happy to hold and will hedge if need be.

Dairy Crest's ability to generate strong volume growth from such brands even as prices are rising is commendable. It also means that the troubles of the liquid milk business, which affect the whole sector, are cushioned. Even so, the outlook for the second half is slightly less positive than previously and while analysts are not cutting forecasts yet there is more chance that they will later. With pre-tax profits currently expected about £101m, and earnings per share of about 56.5p, the price/earnings ratio is a modest 6.9 while the yield is not much lower. With the debt refinanced in good time, the dividend looks more than safe making for a defensive investment in these turbulent markets says the FT.

... is this a knee jerk reaction or will DCG continue to fall, to be or not to be as they say.

... expected profit for year 10% down , could be worth a small recovery play whilst the stock is down c.15% on the day.

... not a bad uplift from the lows , but the price of oil has come down despite the turning off the tap as demand is dropping off. I have a simple solution , whilst black gold is needed , volume of need will decrease. It is not a growth area , those that have spin offs in petro-chemicals will survive , but those reliant on the black stuff of variant grades will not.

IMO , LSE rise and fall when the ftse chooses its direction. There has been a recent rally and as profit taking comes in or any other signs of weakness on the FTSE , I would expect LSE to fall. I have focused in on a few such stocks since the ban on shorting financials and closed my long position in LSE and others of similar ilk and opened up shorts. As soon as there appears to be signs that the ftse will stabilise and strengthen again , then I will be closing my shorts and going long , but , imo , I consider that there could well be a period of decline on the main indices, just my opinion, and that as such , the likes of LSE and others that track the ftse will show signs of weakness during such period , however long or short that may be.

... it sounds from recent releases in south africa and european press that OML may consider a break up being that most of its cash generation is in its weakening currency (rand) with most of its debt in global operations. There are fears that its credit rating may drop if something does not give as its overall cash reserves may fall below permitted levels and either disposal of some of its global assets or a rights issue would be the obvious choices. There has been a series of recent management changes and short timelines put into place. I bought in from the lows and extreme lows and as one of either 2 things will happen , with OML's recent strong recovery, I would keep on your toes if already in and be aware of what you are getting into at these levels as there has been a recent c.50%+ rally and it will only take a jitter of the DOW southwards to send these back down , just imo !

I think that a fair percentage took profit just after you posted. There is absolutely nothing wrong in taking profit. For me , I have been buying into many stocks over the last 10 days , all fitting the well capitalised , will pay a good dividend without question and increase growth and profits brigade. The other common factor being that they all got slaughtered to their lowests of lows within the last few weeks. For me , I'm holding and adding on weakness as I do not need the monies and see these times as a unique opportunity to build a good portfolio. There will be profit taking so you make your choice. Standard Life are due to report in 12hrs , if good , the sector should retain and build on recent gains , if the dow or asian markets dive during the night and Standard Life produce weak results , take profit as the sector will not hesitate and dive. There is not anything you can do until pre-auction at 0750am UK time , but if you are on level2 , you should see which direction the sector is going at this time and sell directly into the market if it is looking weak.

Shares in Friends Provident fall as much as 17 percent as traders say the stock is readjusting back towards more normal levels after closing 28 percent higher on Tuesday, driven by two trades late in the session. 'On the close, Friends went from 52 to 65 pence,' says one trader. 'Quite simply it has readjusted.' 'We don't know why, it could be a squeeze, there is all sorts of volatility and it is undervalued as a sector,' the trader says. Traders and analysts are unable to pinpoint the exact reason for the sudden pre-close rise, with one describing it as a 'freaky movement'. One of the two trades was for 782,005 shares, Reuters data shows. The shares are 11.1 percent lower at 57.8 pence by 1237 GMT but still comfortably above Monday's closing price of 50.7 pence.

SL. are posting Q3 results Thursday 0700am. There is pressure on SL. to prove that teir capital ratios are robust as the government is concerned that with expected company bond writedowns and their equity exposure in financials , SL.'s capital base is subject to fall below what the FSA consider as appropriate and that the government may have to step in , like with the banks , and as such SL.'s shares and others in the sector are dragging , but SL. more than most. All will be revealed in the morning!

I thought that the big swings yesterday were not normal at all , the same with FP. I have given up trying to work it out. Funds are having a bit of a sticky wicket , rumoured that the total losses on VW over the last few days by funds was c.£24b+ when they got caught out on their shorts after porche decleared that they had bought 74% of VW and going for control. IMO , there are funds switching holdings to cover margin calls and how this has effected sectors in general is anyones guess , but would account for many of the odd transactions that have been thrown accross the market. Anyway , looks like OML has found support over the last few trading sessions with some hedge funds shorting having to buy in and other hedge funds on the long from the lows taking profit.