Member Info for mark-expat

.... book value is one thing , reality another ... what was the book value of HBOS and is the book value of RBS...yes BA managed to make a profit for the first time in their last year of trading but when will they make a profit again , how will continued losses effect book values going forward , will they be in business in a few years time? Many stocks show compelling value , but going forward earnings are going to be hit and business models have to change , trying to change BA's business model is not as easy as merging one problem into another , it will be like moving a mountain over a mountain , imo , best wait before you buy in as you might see no dividends and many years for the SP to recover and remember that there is usually a reason why the SP is cheap... http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/transport/article4916436.ece

what a laugh , oil dives and BA dives ....maybe people are finally recognising that BA having finally made a profit and a dividend are infact a duck ready to be shot. These guys are huge , any sought of downturn is like instant death. I hear that they want to charge for meals , bags , what next , body weight? Want to buy in , just imagine all those executives no longer flying around the world to sell SIV's to RBS and HBOS , etc,... ie. what do BA have to offer? I run a short on BA so take my comments at will .. convince me to buy , please. Yes they have slots and asset value , today . but what will generate their growth and further returns to shareholders. Are they dynamic and have a hold on their stuff or are they subject to profound weakness?

..interims also due out on 22/10. I have a short on BLT which was a necessary hedge against AAL , RIO and the like. If they want to push ahead with the RIO deal they need to demonstrate very impressive interims. I think that shorts will be closed and that miners will see a recovery whilst financials drop off.

http://www.digitallook.com http://www.digitallook.com/financialtrading/marketlive_terminal http://www.dividendinvestor.co.uk/ http://online.wsj.com/public/us

totally correct in approach , ie. only go with what you are prepared and able to loose. IG Markets and E-Trade are the only worthy platforms. Get your head around L2 and V2 which enables you to place orders directly into the market. It is a nightmare to start with but IG have great telephone support to talk through any problems , they really are the best. Get yourself a decent 3G phone or notebook on a dongle and away you go.

...diversify and change stratergy. I picked up AAL , RIO , Ferrexpo when I thought they were cheap and ended up shorting these on another account and waded into BHP as a further hedge. I was tempted to pick up some more AAL but instead picked up Gem and Petra Diamonds and IFL to increase my spread across the sector and not keep all my eggs in one basket. AAl is a good solid company that is more than able to weather any storms but it is , like others , out of favour as a slowing economy is likely to effect their earnings. However , this will change when the worldwide economy picks up and they will still produce and literally build up their stock levels in the meantime. If the economy halts all together , they will put the dust sheets over the stock , mothball operations and simply return to production after the stock inventories have been bought up. They have the cash position to do this and I do see a strong recovery as and when demand re asserts itself. In the meantime , if AAL and miners coninue to fall , get yourself a CFD account and short another miner , or indeed AAL , as a hedge until suchtime that the SP finds a good level of support.

I think that is common hedge fund practice and not conspiracy , just business, but they usually have a reason aside from just picking a random stock out of the bag.....I'll continue my research. I know that they had a flat zero on their earnings per share , but that was six weeks ago , never mind , when I find it I'll post...

....aside from the board reshuffle , AXA SA have also reduced their holding in DGO by 70%+ over the last month. Brokers are joining the cue in forecasting oil to drop in value significantly through slowing and falling demand. Have been in and out of DGO but admit that when a company undergoes a board re-shuffle and a major shareholder dumps shares , this does not bode well in my book. Will post any info if relevant an will sit on the sidelines poised to buy in should buying volume start to creep in.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUKTRE4910G120081002?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Not only have they encouraged companies to register in Ireland by their droves by competing with euro countries on corporation tax ( I have encouraged 2 companies that I am associated with to re-register in Ireland ) , they have now fired a big shot right across the euro banks bow. A great economic move , again. If any of you trade banks , you should really look at the Irish Banks if not already in.

I think that the slide was in sympathy of other oils being slippery. There is talk of oil dropping in price through lack of demand on slowing growth. I went in recently and sold and took profit due to the recent slide on the index's. but I personally feel that DGO are worth picking up at these prices. They have very strong cashflow and good infrastructure for meeting their growth targets. No dividends puts some off. I thought the interims were excellent and the statement to follow says it all , imo. "We are confident that Dragon Oil will deliver on its promises for 2008 and will continue to execute its projects in Turkmenistan in such way as to progress our development plan and to achieve continuous, improved results. We are working hard to ensure a bright and positive outlook for 2008 and beyond."

all I can find thus far is "favourable relaxation of both covenants associated with the debt and an extension to January 2012. There is a one off arrangement fee of c.£0.5 million associated with this which will be amortised over the remaining period of the facility."

FIRST HALF HIGHLIGHTS Group profit after tax of US$22.2 million compared to a loss for the same period in 2007 of US$2.8 million Gold revenue for the first half of 2008 increased by 77% over the same period in 2007 to US$73.7 million on sales of 81,036 ounces Average realised gold sales price was US$909/oz, up by 39% (first six months of 2007 - US$655/oz). The Group remains unhedged Cash and short term deposits of US$308.7 million at 30 June 2008 Novoshirokinskoye on schedule for commissioning at the end of 2008

In know that there are many people that prefer tin pot miners in the hope that they will see a 400% rise in 4 seconds , but for those who like less risk , the £20 level seems to have support and I think that AAL.is a good solid recovery investment. RTO looks cheap and so does GEMD. As always , put a buy order in and drip feed the buys should there be further falling off. All these , imo , are a good c.20%+ short term recovery plays.

I am sure that AIG would willingly negotiate the Manchester United contract?

It would be nice , but I feel both are a lost cause , no diss.

hey , what about a ban in investing in oil , haircream , condoms , beer , etc , breathing could be carbon taxed or set aside ? I just love this period in time , I seriously hope that the monies that I freed up from DGO will be put to good use. Working through the night :) We will be able to tell our grandchildren about this moment in time.

... holding my oils , DGO and IVE. I hope that by cashing in half my DGO's that I am able to pick up a few that are hit in financials tomorrow. I also hope to short a few airlines first thing , did this on the australian pre-markets followed by a few of the asians. An all nighter , again. I am working towards a project that needs serious monies , but whilst my missus hates me for it , she likes the project. It would have been easier to short the financials at their peak today but , hey , you have to work around these global politicians , just loved the highest recorded gain today in oils , a real finger up..the shorters have to focus and they also like to rally!!

almost got into this today but wanted to save the moment as the yanks were playing silly buggers.. may regret not buying in yesterday but I felt 680 could have been hit , not , but at c.700 this outfit needs serious consideration , dyor.

I both short and long this stock , when oil dips BA and others go up , when oil spikes , BA and others go down. What must be said though , imo , is that the bottom is getting higher and so is the higher before it drops. BA has dropped recently so , will it drop further , no doubt. But I am having to increase the value of my shorts to get a decent return!