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This I thought was exceptionally interesting in understanding the value that it adds to the company:

"Worst case then: @avacta is now free of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable."

I've been saying this for a while, Avacta's will become highly derisked therapeutics company.

https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1407612823375581185

[2/2] The @avacta investment case is founded on that exclusive right over Affimers for the long-term. They were, after all, specifically engineered by @Tomlinson_lab and colleagues to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.

That is why I am absolutely convinced that the investment has been largely derisked in recent weeks. Of course, there'll be plenty of volatility along the way (as we've just been grimly reminded of!) - but #AVCT is now on the path to becoming a serious player in the Diagnostics world.

Personally, I see the Diagnostics division achieving a valuation of (many?) multiples of #AVCT's current mkt cap of £435m. It could take 3 years, it could take 3 months.

Either way, the commercial launch of such a high quality LFT has made that target valuation - for me - an inevitability.

That leaves investors with what is essentially a free carry on @avacta's Therapeutics division (albeit funded by the cash generated by the Diagnostics division!).

And by now I think that everyone is well aware that the Therapeutics div could completely dwarf the Diagnostics div in value, in the longer-term.

Chemotherapy without the side effects. If animal data are replicated in man this year, the pre CISION technology could multiply the size of the $60bn per annum global chemo market by several times. Need I say more?

[1/2] Here is Myles tweets in full from yesterday ( in case you can't find them anymore). Posted in 2 parts. Myles is a highly respected former analyst who makes some great observations about Avacta:

GLA

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ST trade: multiple purchases this week in #AVCT, av. 169p. Separate from core LT hold.

'Bad' news (i.e. slower build up in manufacturing capacity than envisaged by most; no commercial orders yet) now out of the way; potential for major and frequent positive news flow ahead.
Worst case scenario for #AVCT is that it'll sell 3m to 5m LFTs a month from August, for the next 3 years. That'll be £3m to £5m gross profit per month.

With clinical trials now commencing, assume annual cash burn increases to c.£30m.
Worst case then: @avacta is now free of funding concerns that constantly plague Biotech PLC - for the foreseeable.

Best case? #AVCT will be selling 60m+ LFTs per month by December (or maybe much sooner). £60m+ gross profit per month - for 3 years or more.
But much more importantly for the investment case: Affimers have now been proven in diagnostics. Yes, it took an age for #AVCT to get its LFT developed and CE Marked; but the time taken to do so has ensured that the first ever commercialised, Affimer-based IVD just so happens to be the best of its kind in the world.

It blows its competition - which are almost all monoclonal antibody based - out of the water. And @avacta just so happens to hold the global patent for Affimers in IVDs for another 12+ years.

#AVCT's LFT is also the first product in its branded range of Affimer-based IVD products: "AffiDX". This product range - if the next few products (launches scheduled in 2022/23) achieve the same global-first-in-class status as the #COVID19 LFT - is going to become one of the most sought after brands in the world by the Diagnostics majors.

I just saw it as well. The sentiment from him was that he wanted that confirmation to happen now not later i.e. he was putting pressure on the Government to tell teachers of the "different" and "more accurate" test.

Experts criticise the Events Research Programme that's been running for months. The Innova test is under trial in many of these cases and "no results from the pilots have been published by the Government Departments involved".

The Innova tests are not fit for purpose and I don't understand how many more of these trials they want to give to Innova?

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-announcement-that-60000-fans-will-be-able-to-attend-the-euro-semi-finals/?cli_action=1624465423.211

Deeks has picked up on the recent addition of a PCR test sent with the lateral flow and is following it up.

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1407705267890962433

Great news.

Reading that, it looks like the are potentially talking about Avacta.

It's interesting that Deeks looks at Innova and says:

"These numbers are small, but show a “thumbs down” – performance is poor exactly as would be expected."

Ofcourse as an academic he won't turn around and endorse a specific test, but he goes on to say:

"Better to use a more accurate test"

To me that says a lot. He's not against LFTs but he's not happy with Innova.

On a separate note Innova was analysed by a different group who didn't put the Innova stats in the she ballpark as Jon Deeks. What was interesting was the overall view of PCR and how it fairs in S/S i.e identical to the majority of the world experts. I'll find the link later on.

.

Great post, it's always good to get a reminder of why most of us are here. You will be pleased to know that the M&A value could be well above two to three fold.

FYI, ndn71 gave a rigorous masterclass on valuation earlier, by focusing on just the diagnostics division, using two steps:

1) "emerging biopharmas can rate at 20+ P/E’s" and
2) "To support the current SP we need to be earning about £25m p/a".

On that basis. the Avacta daily LFT sales need to be:

<50,000 daily = current share price
<150,000 daily = 3x MCAP
~275,000 daily = £10 per share

I'm topping up first thing.

Another paranoid loon - LOL. How is the sun shining in the West Midlands?

What a joker. weedylan = ndn71 = covidopportunist. That's not including the numerous other good cop bad cop accounts you have. Sets himself up with a question and answers from a different account. Lovely dialogue.

Don't give up the day job of truck driving.

"He won't mention Avacta by name because of the number of people tested in the CV trial."

Nic, posting from a different account doesn't make your point valid, it's still stupid.

"That 60% was a guess..." yes it was a guess, but from a world expert.

It's useless multi-account holders pretending to have the companies interests at heart. Pointless and clueless.

It's a truck driving, you were good at it. Statistics is not your friend.

You should stick to driving a truck.

Deeks responds to a question about Innova results by saying "Better to use a more accurate test":

"That is not going to be feasible in a large study. Is another ‘correlate’ on infectiousness. Better to use a more accurate test."

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1407297845233963010

In case you missed this great post by Professor Jon Deeks, (which the Government hasn't published yet). Data was available from Innova and quick commented on by Deeks. amongst 13,263 participants. Innova test missed approx 60% of those infected but let in to the event. Luckily Liverpool in general had a very low infection rate at the time otherwise this could have been a disaster.

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1407261978276548610