Member Info for marik

Nic give it a rest, time for you to take a break from the BB.

@neutronic the £1 (€1 to €2) margin was interesting. I was actually surprised it was at that level as my own thoughts were that it might be less. However, it's good to be positively surprised. The LFD industry for some time has been working on very tight margins, AS gave very good margins.

@nic you wandering wolf, I see this heading north.

@Covidopportunist, in case you missed the copy and paste request, its pasted above in this thread.

The artist was previously known as "der wandernde Mann, der auf vielen Rädern die große Metallkiste bewegt, die schwere Gegenstände von einem Ort zum anderen bewegt"

Nice summary.

Eppings changed his name from Nic or something like that? Right Epping?

They have a lot of money behind them with the parent company and a lot of focus and drive.

The alter egos provide the uptick.

I agree with you there PSB123, it was certainly one of the biggest pieces of news.

@13thmonkey you could be right, but I'll double check later as well when the presentation is available.

However, from memory it was 5-30m per month for UK, and this was clarified in the Q&A as it's with UK Gov that capacity would reach 30m (again it was a telling comment for those who listened carefully).

Alastair also pointed to the overseas capacity as 1m/day with two different manufacturers and a safety net of manufacturers (which I think is further manufacturing capacity). This was quite nuanced as this could also imply a much higher capacity then what he is stating, and Alastair has learned from his previous comments being perceived as too bullish. My view is that the production capacity is being extra conservative.

Wait for the RNS's this coming few weeks, there should be a few, and this will become a lot clearer.

@Covidopportunist I've copied and pasted it for you below. The share price at close was £2.74 per share. A 3X return would put you at £8.22. My prediction is at £10.20.

All the best

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Covidopportunist
15 Mar 2021 09:31 on the ODX BB:

"What multiples are still left in Avacta someone asked?

Probably 3x in the short term and perhaps 10x in the next 2-3 years.

No doubt people will make money here but IP will always have much more value than production capacity.

Especially when it is big pharma IP."

@InfinisandBeyond Agreed, there is a seller in the background, but they've been around for short while.

Firstly, I'd like to put this into perspective. Prior to Covid-19, major companies have tried developing lateral flow tests for detecting viruses, but as this sector became well known as a graveyard for investors, many of the stopped going after point of care. The accuracy and infrastructure was just not there for many developers, so they avoided it as the costs out weighed the returns. To get a small company the size of Avacta, sub £50m, to succeed where everyone else has failed is a testament to the Avacta team. It's astounding and beyond belief.

Furthermore, seasoned investors who know the biotech and tech fields will be aware, how companies work on AIM. Their comments when third parties are concerned are to be taken as a guideline. Unfortunately for some recent investors, they have had little experience in the sector or for that matter investing in general and it's resulted in some let down. The stockmarket shouldn't be taken as a get rich quick scheme otherwise you might as well play the lottery.

I'm personally very happy with my investment as I've been invested for a long time. I believe that news is likely to land over the coming weeks [guideline only ;-)], that will take this price closer to my prediction. I'm sure we will all be happy bunnies when the price takes off dramatically (well almost all).

@Covidopportunist interesting comment. Literally a couple of months ago you were stating the multiples left in Avacta. If I'm not mistaken you were putting this at 3x in the short term. From where you were standing then, that was a valuation of >£8.

Suddenly a £10 valuation got your end up?

Ignore him MrAdventurous he's just wasting his time.

"Can always click on the first or last tag."

Give it a rest Murph.

It's unheard of that a biotech will have sufficient funds to go into clinical trials. This has the potential to be very big, I'm buying more and holding.

You said you blocked me - very disingenuous.

I’ve updated my back of envelope mid-case valuation scenario for Avacta based on todays comments at the presentation. I based on therapeutics (pro-dox, preCISION and Affimer platforms) and diagnostics (LFT + BAMS) arms. I’ve taken the following points into consideration (and they also act as a summary for todays presentation):

Diagnostics
o UK capacity up to 1M per day
o Worldwide capacity up to 1M per day (well advanced)
o 1-2 Euro profit margins per test
o Quality of test implies not required to compete
o Market well beyond covid testing - range of products
o Variant proof: 5 weeks to come up with a new Affimer
o Will white label
o Continued engagement with UK Gov/ Porton Down
o Demand to remain for 3-5 years
o ISO 13485 completed

Therapeutics
o AVA6000 dosing in 3-5 weeks
o AVA6000 potential read out end of year
o Multiple other drugs in the pipeline to follow

General
o Enough money to 2023

Annual diagnostics sales for Avacta could be looking at £1.2 Bn, adding the BAMS, I’m putting a valuation on Avacta diagnostics close to £2.6 Bn end of 2021 and the covid market set to run for 3-5 years and potentially beyond. With new diagnostics in the pipeline, the market is likely to buoyed for years to come.

On the therapeutics side, AVA6000 has phase 1a readout at the end of the year and 1b following soon after. The total cancer market size sits at around £40.7 Bn and as and when phase 1a and 1b milestones are announced this will prove the preCISION technology and add value to Avacta. The growth is expected to be non-linear 2021 to 2026.

Although I believe a more bull case scenario was in order, I've been frugal with figures where I deemed fit to give Avacta a mid-case value (this was to avoid any ramping/deramping accusations). Overall I'm estimating the valuation at approx. £4.6 Bn (~£10.2 per share) end of 2021 and £17 Bn (~£39 per share) by 2026.

"'NON exclusive', which means its not exclusive to AVCT!"

LOL. It means that Avacta is not tied to just this distributor.