Member Info for marik

AS is not in charge of the share price. I'm sure he'll release an RNS as and when it is required and I don't think he should base that purely on the share price.

I prefer the RNS to be chunky like the chips at the Wetherby Whaler, they take their time to arrive, but when they do boy are they worth it.

Novo can certainly buy out Avacta and I think they may well go for it. However, I think the ideal time for such a move would be close to December if they are to do so. Any positive news on Avacta re: AVA6000 and/or high volume of sales, then Avacta automatically becomes a target. The window of opportunity for a buyout is small it remains open as long as the Market Cap remains below a specific threshold, after which it Avacta becomes a giant in its own right.

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Orient Genes field test results are:

1) There are recent figures given here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/999866/asymptomatic-testing-for-SARS-CoV-2-using-antigen-detecting-lateral-flow-devices-evidence-from-performance-data-Oct-2020-to-May-2021.pdf

2) Orient Gene sensitivity was 7% (<10K copies/ml), 47% ( 10K-1M copies/ml) and 88% (>1M copies/ml).

3) HMG/DHSC have this sitting around >1M copies/ ml i.e. ct of 18.3

That's 88% on a ct vlaue of 18.3. I wouldn't be surprised if basic body temperature screening thermal cameras could do a better job!

My opinion is, it was one of the most stupid idea to put the cut-off ct 18.3. There is zero scientific evidence that this is the correct figure. It looks like they've retrospectively chosen a number that makes the Orient Gene LFT look good. It's certainly not a "green light" test. The confusion in my opinion is that some members of UK Gov don't understand that this test can't be a "green light" test and have therefore made unbelievable claims that have been shot down. If anything, when they re-inspect the data, they will have to make a u-turn on this.

I saw this interesting post on another BB about disruptive posters, thought it would be interesting to share:

"Just report them for disruption and they'll receive the same posting bans as others. People simply sit there arguing with them in a non stop manner, there is absolutely no need to do that when there are 'report post' options readily available to every poster on this board."

As the previous thread was hijacked...

I'm very optimistic about the use of AVA6000 not least in targeted therapy being the way forward.

The ultimate goal is that the combined platform will give us a fantastic targeting and will prove the precision targeting with affimers. This would be exceptionally transformational news with Avacta gaining a huge valuation.

Source? Or is it just ketchup?

"Current price is fair for proven use case for affirmers..." way off the mark, it should be well above this.

They've been very conservative with the target.

Interesting.

Many little tiny people are beavering away in the sales team.

There have been numerous issues with Jupiter. If only every smart investor bet against Netflix and Amazon. Avacta are in good company.

I was having a quick read of the direct sales being targeted by Avacta:

– large corporates for workforce testing;
– work-force testing service providers;
– travel related businesses (airlines, airports);
– events companies;
– care homes and other social and healthcare businesses required to test their
employees.

This should be very interesting.

I thought I would give my two pennies' worth for the last week:

Avacta is not out of the DHSC process, otherwise they would have commented on the Innova scandal especially considering the Mologic relationship. I've been saying this for a long time, but Avacta are better off without the UK Gov, but I guess there are many on here who are holding on to that line. The UK Gov have a habit of paying the bigger guys billions (Innova) and a track record of not fulfilling contractual obligations (Novacyt). I would rather have large EU contracts and the RoW.

As I'm painfully aware many of the PIs are unhappy with the management, however, management is there to run the company and when material news becomes available they will release an RNS. Although I'm certain there are fairly big orders in the pipeline, the market was expecting earlier news which has not been forthcoming. This delay is leading to the current changes in the share price. As I've said before for those who are fairly new to investing, have patience. I'm giving management a reasonable lead time prior to feeling a cause for concern.

As far as Jupiter are concerned, they short many stocks, it's the nature of their game, many they will get wrong and some they will get right. Here, I think they've made a poor decision, partly because the medium-long term horizon is bright for Avacta and secondly the r/r looks uncertain. However their business model isn't based on getting all their shorts correct. I would go as far as saying that there is more risk for them in taking a short on Avacta. I'm under the impression that they are poorly researched.

GLA

Deeks isn't very optimistic on lifting lockdown.

Blackrock have a short on Jupiter @0.97 for months.

In the bigger picture, what an individual PI "needs" or wants versus what the corporation needs are two very different things. It's best if we let Avacta do their thing and announce news when it is meaningful.

GLA

When you have to massage your figures to look good and then get pulled apart:

https://twitter.com/deeksj/status/1412800441142984704

That's a possible scenario.

The homegrown LFTs are still on course from today's PMQ. In my mind there was no doubt after the last presentation everything required to understand the company and its direction was clarified.

What will become clear as we progress is what a great job Al Smith has actuality done. I'm expecting many doubters to make a u-turn when they understand what I know to be true. That is, he has achieved the holy grail of PoC LFTs.

What this means will be an eye opener to many here who will then realise the potential of AffiDx not just on Covid but other antigen detection.