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The Dail, the Irish Parliament, returns from its Summer break tomorrow September 18.

I would expect them to be in situ to comment on a deal, if it happens, with APEC as it will be strategically very important for the country, especially as China is involved.

So, this could go down to the wire as the Minister for Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment, Denis Naughton, is not officially back in harness until tomorrow which means less than two weeks to end of Q3.

If no show by end of month we should at least get an RNS telling us why.

Is this a "softener" to let us down softly that the deal with APEC will not happen?

Interesting that the item published yesterday was entitled "The Irish Oil and Gas Sector" but the subheading was “Natural gas will be essential for Ireland’s transition to a low-carbon future” .

So, the overall heading talks of oil and gas but the article then concentrates on gas. Why? After all the deal with APEC is all about oil and not gas, so why the concentration now on gas?

Are we going to see a different deal on the gas in Barryroe or is it Spanish Point tying into Corrib? And whatever happened to OPL 1 which was the deal with Kinsale as an extension of Barryroe to drill a gas well below the 4,000 ft line by the end of this year? That deal was for three years starting in December 2015 so it is now close to the wire before it terminates.

Then you have Hugh Mackay, chief executive of Europa Oil & Gas Holdings Plc saying they have major interest in their three farm-outs in the Porcupine where he says thery have identified tbf's of gas so will Europa get in first with a major farmout?

Not only that, but the other day a report from Canada said there are billions of barrels of oil and gas off the coast of Labrador and Newfoundland in the Atlantic which is said to be the same geological structure as the Irish Zone.

With oil hitting €80 a barrel a day and gas also heading higher surely it is time Providence got off the pot and finally announced if a deal with APEC is on or off. If oil and gas are becoming "hot" properties given the price increases surely deals must be close to completion after such a long period of stagnation.

Or are we once more being led up the garden path?

I checked the presentation Providence gave to Proactive which can be found by searching "proactive investors providence resources" and it does not say "early Q3" but says Q3 and is subject to government "approval". TOR hedging again?

So, the delay is not Providence but is ultimately Denis Naughton, Minister at Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment who is the nominal signatory to the agreement.

The delay is probably due to the fact that the Irish Government are still on holidays and will not be back until 20th September. The announcement will probably be made after they get back, especially if it is positive, as Naughton will want to take kudos from it.

The share price, though, would not give you confidence to fill your boots on the basis that the approval would be positive as it still lingers at below 12p. So, what happens if the deal with APEC is not approved? A share nosedive?

But what are the alternatives?

After all, it is reported that "From September, Ireland will be the first country in Europe to introduce a ban on smoky coal." What are the going to use instead? smokeless coal, gas or oil. There is no way they can depend on solar or wind as that is too unpredictable. Given the summer we have just had I don't think there was too much wind and unless they cover half of Ireland with solar panels that will not suffice either.

I note there is an article in today's Irish Times where Mr. Naughton opened a conference in Ireland where reduction of carbon emissions is the focus under the auspices of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The article is entitled "Ireland ‘ambitious’ on climate despite rising emissions – Naughten". There are some ambitious plans in it such as removing 175,000 oil central heating systems as well as banning the smokey coal. Check it out.

The gas from Barryroe would go a part of the way to resolving the alternatives when combined with Corrib and Spanish Point if they ever get around to developing that but there is no way that Ireland can do without oil or gas for at least the next thirty years and post Brexit the supply of both could be a major issue.

The details of the survey I supplied are all available on the dccae.gov.ie website under natural resources where it states 4 well sites are being surveyed.

There was no RNS, I presume, because there has not yet been a decision from the department. I expect, when the decision is made, we will get one. Hopefully, the deal signed in March with APEC will be completed within the quarter as promised.

The real problem with Barryroe is not Providence but the tardiness of the department who take forever. They recently made a major mistake over mineral rights when they misinterpreted EU regulations. Is it any wonder they take forever when they have to answer to their EU masters?

I believe the problem with Barryroe gas is that it is mixed with the oil and has to be separated whereas the gas coming from Kinsale Head is gas alone. Otherwise, could Providence possibly drill the current gas wells down to below the 4,600 foot line where their gas is located?

The question is, though, why is there no mention of the gas in the

The "Oil reserves at the Barryroe reservoir are found in the Cretaceous Middle and Lower Wealden sandstones respectively located 1,400m and 2,300m (approximately 4,600ft and 7,550ft) below sea level." so the gas is too deep for Kinsale.

It will be interesting, if the Barryroe deal is done with APEC, whether COSL will be employed to do the decommissioning for Kinsale. I see where COSL have just completed a successful drill for Lundin in the Norwegian North Sea so they are well capable of drilling and clearing.

And, by the way, what happened to the OPL 1 option Barryroe got from Kinsale for a 60% share in that potential well? Is that the 4th well Barryroe now plans to drill with APEC? Or has that now gone by the board given that decommissioning has been planned starting in 2020?

Plenty of irons in this fire as long as TOR can complete the deal with COSL and get that tardy department of "Communications, Climate Action and Environment" (what a mouthful) to get off its rear end.

I note in the previous post that LSE does not like links to external sites.

However, further to the previous post, I note Providence, via Exola Dac (its wholly owned subsidiary that owns Barryroe) submitted a request to the Minister to execute a survey of the Barryroe site starting on September 1st (if possible) for approx. 25 days with a view to checking the seabed to locate 4 wells.

The key aims of the survey are to:

 Accurately determine water depths;
 Provide information on depth of sediments overlying chalk bedrock and to identify and map any chalk exposures;
 Provide information to inform archaeological assessments of the sites;
 Provide information on seabed and sub seabed conditions to ensure the safe emplacement and operation of a semi-submersible drilling rig at each of the four provisional well locations within the survey area
 Assess the area for the presence of any Annex 1 habitats (as defined in the EC Habitats Directive 97/62/EC);
 Provide environmental baseline samples across the site to establish a benchmark for ongoing environmental monitoring as per OSPAR guidelines.

It comes under the following heading "Application from Exola DAC Limited for Approval to Conduct a Seabed Debris Clearance, Environmental Baseline and Habitat Assessment Site Survey at Barryroe."

I cannot see them doing this without the agreement of COSL as without COSL there was never a notion of putting 4 wells on Barryroe.

On that basis, will we get a COSL agreement before the survey is due to start on 1st September?

COSL and Providence have discussed a joint oil project on Barryroe but no mention of the gas.

One possibility for no mention of the gas is that Barryroe gas lies below Kinsale Head Gas field which is now defunct. Barryroe gas is below 4,000ft whereas Kinsale has only the top section and do not go that far down. Check out Wood Mackenzie who issued a report on Barryroe to that effect on 7th June of this year at:

https://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-seven-heads-2332419

To that end, Kinsale Energy, owned by Petronas, has recently submitted a request to the Minister for the decommissioning of the Seven Heads and the Kinsale Head gas fields along with wellheads, pipelines, etc. The cost of this has obviously to be borne by Petronas who own it and it is going to be astronomical.

If Barryroe were to step in and take over the infrastructure before the agreed decommisioning that would be a benefit to Petronas as it would not need to be decommissioned. So, perhaps Providence are waiting to see the approval of the decommissioning and the cost to Petronas and then take over the facilities. In that case, Petronas would have to pay Providence substantial amounts as otherwise, it is going to cost Petronas an arm and a leg to remove all that kit off the sea floor,block up all those wells, remove those pipes and make the seabed good..

If Barryroe was to take over the infrastructure from Kinsale Head to Cork, (Check the map in the following) you could see that Petronas would have to pay them the cost of the decommissioning as it would then become Providence's responsibility at the end of the Barryroe gas project. In that way, Providence could potentially get a cash injection of say $50m to $100m. The actual figure will become clearer when the approval of the decommissioning is given.

The closing date for the submissions was 31st of July so the terms and conditions are now under consideration.

You can check out the current situation at:

https://www.dccae.gov.ie/en-ie/natural-resources/consultations/Pages/Decommissioning-of-certain-facilities-within-the-Kinsale-Head-and-Seven-Heads-Petroleum-Lease-areas.aspx

This could be a major bonanza for Providence.