Member Info for Manyana

Yes Wraith.

In your case it would probably be worth bed and ISA if you can get all your shares across. You will obviously find that the sell price is lower than the buy price but not by a lot.

One way of doing it is to buy into the ISA and then sell to balance it if you can afford the extra cash. That way you will be guaranteed your buy in as we are now in a rising market with both LOGP and PVR. It might actually mean you make money if they rise far enough and you sell at a higher price than your buy.

Remember, TOR and O'Sullivan have 12m and 9m optionsat 45c (40p) respectively on Providence that they must exercise before August 8th 2019. But they only benefit in the margin so the price would need to be well ahead of 40p for their options to be worth while.

That is why I would expect, if Barryroe comes up with the goods, that the price will be closer to £1 for Providence and could be as high as 30p for Lansdowne, even higher if somebody comes in to take them out.

So, I would definitely bed and ISA if the market is in your favour. It is exactly what I have been doing myself.

Good luck.

To ISA your shares depends on a few things.

What price do you have on your LOGP and Providence shares. Some people have prices as high as 50p for LOGP and £5 for Providence. If you ISA'd those by bed & ISA now you could end up losing quite a lot of money as you don't need to worrry about the price until they exceed the 50p and £5 levels as Gordon Brown got rid of the FIFO and changed it to LIFO.

If, on the other hand you bought them at say 2p and 10p, for example, you would certainly be wise to ISA them as long as you have not invested your £15k each for the current year as by next year they could easily be 20p and £1 and it would not take you long if you have a decent amount of both, if you decided to sell, that you would end up paying Mr. Hammond capital gains tax.

To check out my previous item look up the following and go to 2006 where you will read that it was Tullow's transformational year. That was the year Angus McCoss joined Tullow.

https://www.tullowoil.com/about-us/our-story

It might have been luck or judgement but in either case he can only be good for Providence.

I had not quite finished my last item when it sent if off.

When I say McCoss is a very experienced oil exploration professional you have to look at his successes.

How many successes have Tullow had since he became exploration direct when he joined in 2006 and then compare that to John O'Sullivan who has, to date, had diddly squat with Providence.

As for being "lucky" I read that McCoss organised a drilling in Africa which came up dry. At the last moment, he told the drillers to drill down an extra 100 feet as he could not believe they had not hit oil and sure enough they broke through into a huge reserve in the extended drill he had requested.

That is the sort of "luck" and experience we need in Providence where we have been hoping and praying for some sort of "luck" for the last number of years. Perhaps McCoss can bring us that.

I am pretty positive that APEC is an Hong Kong company indirectly owned by CNOOC, the Chinese National Offshore Oil Company.

So, rather than look at APEC and worry about its financial stability you should look at COSL who are the main drivers of this as they have both the kit, the staff and the connections to do the work. And if you look closer you will see COSL have a "very" close relationship with CNOOC, the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation (which is Chinese government owned). And then you see that CNOOC own Nexen - quote "Nexen is a wholly subsidiary of CNOOC".- and Nexen have a number of Frontier Licenses offshore Ireland and intend to start drilling next year right next to a Providence license which contains the Druid/Drombeg,Diablo ridge prospect. If Nexen hits oil you can be sure Nexen will be in for either Diablo Ridge which was not tested but is thought to hold oil or they will be after Providence because Providence themselves say they are waiting on Nexen's results to prove up Diablo but who better to drill Diablo than Nexen when they will already have a drill in the vicinity?

This deal with Providence is actually a Chinese government backed project - as is clear when APEC had to get Chinese approval for Barryroe - and the Chinese are looking for oil anywhere worldwide they can get it as their indigenous oil reserves will never satisfy their requirements. They currently have the biggest oil stockpile heading for 900million barrels by 2020 so you can be sure that most of the oil coming out of Barryroe will be shipped to China on big tankers probably through the Panama Canal.

So, I would not worry too much about the development or the speed of development of Barryroe as the Chinese will want to do that as quickly as possible.

And, as is pointed out, when the dust settles and the Irish people have had their say, like Corrib, you could easily see CNOOC (directly or via Nexen) taking over Providence. After all, CNOOC bought Nexen from the Canadians and nobody batted an eyelid, as they say.

But do we really care? We are here for the money and not the interests of the Irish people. Do the Irish politicians care as long as they get their pound of flesh through the pathetic tax regime they have for Irish oil with all costs to date tax free?

If the politicians had any brains, they would have an indigenous Irish oil industry to develop Barryroe. But they sold all of that over the years including the gas because politicians think in five year cycles as they have to stand for reelection and it will take at least that to fully develop Barryroe so who is going to vote for nationalising and paying for that when they could be voted out and the next incumbent gets all the credit?

So do we welcome the Chinese with open arms on moral grounds or only because we think we can make lots of money? I know why I am here, do you?

Watch this space.

Angus McCoss is a very good oil exploration professional and has been a major success in the development of Tullow over the last twelve years.

He is also "lucky". IN

More detailed article on appointment in Irish Independent

https://www.independent.ie/business/jobs/providence-resources-appoints-as-angus-mccoss-as-senior-independent-director-37383845.html

I am not sure how my previous item got so mixed up with the editor putting in the "hidden" break characters but I think it is still legible.

The bottom line, is do not trust the buys and sells as they can be totally manipulated by how the bid/ask prices are set.

Prices on shares are so inexact when it comes to buys and sells.<br /><br />The bid/ask prices determine whether something is a buy or a sell. If the price is lower than 50% of the spread, it is a sell and if it is equal or above it is a buy.<br /><br />But the bid/ask prices are determined by the market makers so they actually control how a deal appears and the bid/ask prices can change indiscriminately.<br /><br />For example, the current deal is 2.075 with a bid/ask of 2.00/2.15 so it is a buy but if it had been 2.074 it would have been a sell even though, at that difference from the ask price, it would certainly have been a buy.<br /><br />So, you can see it is share manipulation at its very worst. That is why other sites have now stopped marking shares as buys or sells.

Please supply your source as to date and time.

In return, I will supply mine which is very reputable.

If you are right, of course, it does not weaken my argument but actually makes it stronger.

I look forward to your source.

Hereandnow,

Your comment that "continue to be stunned at how cheap this company is. So unloved for so many years. So many fed up LTHs. "

There are a number of reasons why Lansdowne has been so unloved over the last five years when back in 2013 its share price was as high as 45.5p. The reasons are:

Barryroe is really Lansdowne's only valuable asset.

Lansdowne and Providence came close to losing their rights to Barryroe. No farm out deal, other than the abortive Sequa one, was done for years by other oil majors in the hope they would both go bust and the assets picked up for buttons.

Lansdowne had to potential finds in Midleton with no gas and Roscarbery that it had to relinquish because it could not develop them in time and did not have the money to pay for the licenses.

Both Lansdowne and Providence had to pay monies to Transocean after the drilling debacle of Barryroe in 2012. This put huge financial strain on both companies.

Lansdowne used to have a major shareholder called SeaEnergy which is now defunct and is being delisted. It held about 20% of Lansdowne and when Lansdowne went to the shareholders to raise the money to pay off Transocean SeaEnergy could not raise it and so it had to relinquish its shares and has subsequently gone bust. Its shares were subsequently sold off for buttons.

A year ago, the Phase 1 license for Barryroe was fortunately extended until 2019 by the minister and if work was not carried out on it as a Phase 1 development Lansdowne and Providence would have to relinquish it.

Would you invest in Lansdowne with all that baggage and no potential future?

So, as long as there was little prospect of developing Barryroe, Lansdowne was always in jeopardy. Until two weeks ago it was potentially worthless and with a reasonable amount of debt.

So, you see what a knife edge Lansdowne have been sitting on. If the deal with APEC had not taken place and next years plan not implemented, its shares were actually worthless.

Now that the deal has been done and Lansdowne is "safe" the value of the shares should reflect that. And at their current price that is still a long way off true value.

Back in about 2013, after the Barryroe hype, Lansdowne with about 300m shares and 20% of Barryroe went to a high of 45.5p. Simple maths would now compute with 500m shares and 10% of Barryroe that a price equivalent to about 15p reflects the high until Barryroe is developed. What value they will be after that is anybody's guess.

So, if we can get to anywhere near to 15p and the development of Barryroe picks up we should all be happy. So, being pessimistic, even if we get to 7.5p in the near term that is still a long way from its price today.

It should also be remembered that all costs to develop Barryroe are free of tax.

While the current tax rates on oil profits in Ireland are between 25% and 45% that only occurs after all the costs have been recouped.

When you consider all the costs both Providence and Lansdowne have paid for the development to date in Barryroe that actually amounts to a hefty amount. And added to the development costs you also have the legal costs associated with Transocean which I presume are also included.

Even though APEC will own 50% they have not actually paid anything yet for Barryroe. so all the costs to date pre tax should come back to Providence and Lansdowne.

That will add a tidy sum to the bottom lines of both Providence and Lansdowne and hopefully will come out of the revenue sooner rather than later.

I agree. LOGP is a bargain at these prices.

LOGP has suffered from the possibility that it would go to the wall before Barryroe was developed. Now that they are funded through the drilling stages next year that is no longer an issue.

O'Reilly said it would cost $25 a barrel to take the oil out of the ground in Barryroe because it was so close to Cork and in shallow water of 100m. So. if LOGP's share is 36m barrels at lowest estimate (at 10%) that equates to a value of $900m or $1.80 (£1.40) a share. That is a factor of 70x on today's price of say 2p.

Given that in the hype days of Barryroe back in 2012/13, LOGP's share price went to 48p we have a long way to go, so a price of say 20p would not be out of the trees.

Anything above 10p would suit most people as I am sure, like most of us, they have bought these "penny" shares for just that - pennies.

Having posted the previous item saying how the share price had gone from 16.90 to 17.375 I see that the price has fallen back to 16.625 on sale of 1.5m (approx) shares.

A bit volatile at the moment obviously. Hopefully will return to its upward path soon, especially as the highest buy price today was 17.50. More of that please.

Barryroe share price cooking nicely. If we get a few more days of this it will probably fly. Aleady today since the last post it has gone from 16.90 to 17.375 and hopefully will be above 18 by tomorrow morning.

Given that Providence traded at £7 when Barryroe was hype and given that there were 60m shares, that gave a market cap of £420m and an effective share price of 70p today with 600m shares we still have a bit to go. As the teacher said "good, but could do better".

Interesting to note in the work schedule for next year that the first well drilled will also have the sidetrack of 200m in the Wealden. If that comes good, and I presume it will be announced before they go on to the second well etc. we should see a very substantial build in the price as each well is drilled.

There was a mention of Europa as a possible good investment but Europa are still in the hype stage and I notice that the two areas they have close to Corrib are still License Options and not Exploration Licenses. After all, most of the Round of 2015 have converted into Licenses. So, if Europa is so good why have they not done that?

For some reason they have been granted extensions on these LOs as they normally only last for two years would have expired in August of this year but they have had a years extension on both to 2019 but if they were so confident of these why have they not converted them into License options. Perhaps they do not have the money to do so as LOs cost. So, for me Europa is a wait and see.

The oil map from DCCAE dated 30th June 2018 is the latest map of licenses and options and can be found at:

https://www.dccae.gov.ie/documents/A0_Concesion_Map_30June2018.pdf

For those long in the tooth with this share probably remember after Barryroe was confirmed as a find an Indian oil company, ONGC, offered €1.1billion for the company in 2013 but the deal fell through.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/providence-1bn-sale-would-have-saved-oreilly-30391508.html

Much has happened since then so what is Providence worth now?

When you consider, for example, the excitement the other day when a gas field off the Scottish coast with an estimated reserves of 1trillion cubic feet, a value of $3billion, and easy to develop because of the infrastructure in place and then compare it to the gas in Barryroe which is 400billion cubic feet with about the same available infrastructure through Kinsale Energy's network being in place you ask yourselves why not the same enthusiasm for Barryroe gas. Pro rata that would make the Barryroe gas worth $1.2billion.

Then you have Spanish Point which has both oil and gas as per the following:

The Spanish Point gas condensate discovery was made by Philips Petroleum in 1981 with the drilling of the 35/8-2 well. Oil and gas were discovered in Upper Jurassic Volgian sands with one zone flowing at c. 5 MMSCFD and c. 1000 BOPD (c. 1800 BOEPD). The discovery was not appraised due to lack of gas infrastructure and market in Ireland at the time. In 2004, Providence/Sosina licensed the discovery and following
in depth subsurface and pre-development studies, Chrysaor farmed in during 2008 by agreeing to fund a c.300 sq km 3D seismic survey which was acquired in 2009. Evaluation of these data has confirmed a resource level of up to c. 510 MMBOE with c. 200 MMBOE recoverable. Peak production rates have been modelled at over 70,000 BOEPD and planning has commenced for an appraisal drilling programme.

Note where it says Phillips did not develop Spanish Point because of "the lack of infrastructure and market in Ireland at the time". But with Corrib close by with its infrastructure to the Irish gas network now available and anticipated to is surely a major development opportunity with huge value. After all, Corrib will start to be exhausted by 2025 and Ireland will need to import about 95% of its gas. Surely a big opportunity for the development of Spanish Point.

So, the Indians offered €1.1billion in 2013 which would value each share at €1.83 and given the developments in Providence since then surely a price of €3 per share would not be out of the trees. .

Why are things different now? Because the APEC deal is a game changer for Providence. If Barryroe comes good and with no debt Providence is a major catch for a big oil company and a price of say $5billion would not be out of the question. Its portfolio is second to none.

And given that TOR's share options run out in August 2019 with its strike price of 45c you can anticipate that the share price will be well north of that by then.

The article is from 2015 but it is even more relevant now given the improvements in performance since then.

Pageant have been a long time supporter through thick and thin and if they are correct we will be in clover come this time next year.

Article in Irish Independent re Pageant purchase.

Very positive.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/furlongs-pageant-holdings-ups-stake-in-oreillys-providence-resources-31597938.html

Barryroe certainly fits with the biggest fields in the North Sea and it is probably the shallowest of them at 100m which means development is far easier in calmer waters than rolling around off the West coast in thousands of feet of water before you get to the sea bed.

It should also be noted that those you mention in your list have been pumping oil for years even as far back as the 1970s so they will have been somewhat depleted.

Initially Barryroe was reckoned to hold about 370m barrels but this has been revised upwards to between 1billion and 1.6billion and that is without going deeper than the current levels even though it is reckoned there is even more lower down.

On top of that is the gas which does not seem to get a mention but must surely play a major part in replacing Kinsale Energy who are fast running out even though their gas field lies on top of Barryroe.

If you have not watched the following video it is worth a look. If what it says is correct, then the current price of Providence, now that a deal has been done to develop it, is peanuts.

If Barryroe on its initial estimate of 370m barrels was reckoned to be worth about £20 a share and in the good old dasy hit about £6 when there was only 60m shares what price would you put on the shares when there are 600m as now but the amount of oil estimates has increased by a factor of 4?

Worth a look at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=161&v=YI2y7649C5I

As expected, announcement made after Dail return. Now the ministers can get some kudos from it.

Share price not percolated into the general public yet. Online papers have announced it but it has not yet made the general public which will be in tomorrow's papers so that should draw in more investors.

All the papers seem to be concentrating on is that the losses have narrowed and not the announcement of Barryroe. Even RTE are in on that act without an explanation whereas the real news is Barryroe.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2018/0920/994913-providence-resources/

The cash in hand which fell from €36.398m in June 2017 to stand at €12.355m now looks pretty rought but it must be remembered that the money spent was on the Druid/Drombeg drill.

As it says in the FY2017 Accounts "Financially, the Company recorded a loss for the financial year of €20.419 million, which includes a full impairment of the costs for the drilling of the 53/6-1 Druid/Drombeg exploration well. Cash on the balance sheet
at year end was €19.603 million and the Company had no debt.

That gives a far rosier picture rather than the bland statement that there was a huge loss.

Before Druid/Drombeg, Providence was trading at about 19p. I would expect in the next period it will get back to somewhere close to that. At least, I hope it does, and perhaps even higher.