Member Info for Manyana

We must be getting close to the new application if Providence are to do the site survey in Q1 2019.

The withdrawal notice on the 30th November 2018 stated that "RESCHEDULING OF PLANNED SITE SURVEY PROGRAMME FROM Q4 2018 TO Q1 2019".

We are now half way through Q1 so I hope we get an update soon.

I am wholeheartedly in agreement with your sentiment and would be delighted with your assessment of in excess of 19p but I will also be pleased if we can even achieve 10p.

Having bought a substantial number of these which I added to my previous collection at prices as low as 1.22p, anything even approaching 10p will be jam.

So I hope you are right with your 19p assessment and I hope we hear about the survey and the drilling with firm dates in the not too distant future.

Methinks, Bronxville, you do not understand how Irish oil licenses work.

It is clear that Providence have put Kish on the back burner due to the mistake by the government in the 1915 proposal which allowed them to get off the requirement to do development within a six year cycle of getting the license.

Kish is a Standard License and therefore you have two x 3 years phases to carry out work. If Providence had not completed the survey and work on Kish by now, they would have had to relinquish the license which would then be available to any other prospector, such as Nexen. Do you want the Chinese sitting 8km offshore Dublin?

You will note from the attached that they got a reprieve in November 2016 on the basis that phase one of Kish should have been completed by 17th August 2016 but which now allows them to hold onto the Kish license until 2020, by which time they will have to have worked on it. They also complied with the agreement when they relinquished 55.39% of the area under license.

It says:

"The Minister of State for the Department of Communications, Climate Action and Environment has given his consent
to extend the first phase of the Licence by two years until 17th August 2018 and an overall extension of one year to
the licence term until 17th August 2020. Such extensions should allow for the planning, consent and drilling of an
exploration well on the Kish Prospect within the first phase of the Licence. The Company has also voluntarily
relinquished 55.39% of the area under the Licence considered to be unproductive."

Oil planning is not just a case of ordering a jam sandwich over Amazon.

Under the above, Kish is still well within the remit of Providence and could be a development if Barryroe is successful this year by at least carrying out a survey.

People are questioning why we have not seen the proposal for the survey yet but I would hope that it appears a day before the boat takes off to do it. That way, An Taisce will have no time to try and set up another Judicial Review as an attempt to stop it.

It is a bit like the old Irish saying, "may you get to heaven half an hour before the devil knows you are dead".

When we had the first dash of development, LOGP went to 50p and there were about 240m shares. On that basis, and since there is now a 10% share rather than a 20% share it would not be unreasonable to expect a price of about 10p since there are no up-front costs associated with LOGP's share.

I think we would be well happy with a price of 10p or higher. I certainly would.

I suggest you read the directive where you can see you could drive a horse and cart through it as it is a pile of gobbledygook and totally vague.

I suggest you look back at the previous time Providence crossed swords with An Taisce and withdrew the survey of Dublin Bay which has never been resurrected.

In that one you will see that the reason for the withdrawal was "In their statement Providence made it clear that a transposition error in Ireland's implementation of the EIA directive was the reason for their decision to surrender the licence."

In that case, it was the Irish government got it wrong with a "transposition error". When you consider that a transposition error is "a simple error of data entry which occurs when two digits that are either individual or part of a larger sequence of numbers are reversed" and it was never corrected you begin to see that you can ask for a Judicial Review if I told you tomorrow was Friday when in fact it is Wednesday.

That is the sort of body you are dealing with when you have a non-entity such as An Taisce. The idea of "doing something useful instead of the opposite" comes to mind.

So we have nothing until that survey is confirmed. Once that is done and there are no more objections, hopefully it will be plain sailing.

Based on your estimates that there are 80% of the shares spoken for that still leaves about 150m in free float.

This will probably start to really boil when we have a clear indication of the survey and the drilling timescales. I would then expect the free float to go down to about 50m and it is then you will really see this motor.

I am sure the delay is down to care and attention. You have to remember that Barryroe is in 100m of water while Nexen's IOLAR is at a depth of 2,200m. There are still living creatures and matter at 100m but there is very little of that at 2,200m

If the EU can make directives to ensure the safety of newts and hedgehogs then they are probably just as interested in preserving the reserves of plants, shrimps and prawns.

The EU directive on SEA says "Broadly speaking, for the plans/programmes not included above, the Member States have to carry out a screening procedure to determine whether the plans/programmes are likely to have significant environmental effects. If there are significant effects, an SEA is needed. "

That probably applies to Barryroe because of its shallow water but not IOLAR at its substantial depth.

The main difference between those two depths is Barryroe still have "live" matter down at the 100m such as plants, molluscs, fish etc. whereas IOLAR might just have a passing whale or you might be luck to find a few rocks.

So Providence and the department have to take their time and get it right because we don't want to have those Noddies in An Taisce finding another excuse to delay the survey and the drilling based on some useless EU directive.

So, I believe An Taisce's gripe was what damage Providence would do at Barryroe with its flora and fauna when they want to put down their drilling equipment. After all, you could send down a few divers who can go as low as 200m but certainly could not go down to 2,200m.

So, Providence has to get it right in case An Taisce come back with more complaints. Getting it right takes time but I am sure will be worth it in the long run.

August 9th 2019 is the date that the 12m share options Tony O'Reilly has and the 9m share options that O'Sillivan has will expire. The option price is placed at 45c which equates to about 35p. Other directors received smaller amounts under the same terms.

I am sure they will hope that the share price exceeds 35p by a reasonable amount by then for them to benefit from the options. We can all surely agree with that and hope their dreams come true along with ours.

I have never been away. It has just been a very long journey from 2012 and for the last year or so I have just been an observer waiting for the sun to rise.

As most people will know, I was never the greatest fan of O'Reilly or his daddy and if daddy had kept his billions we would now be pumping oil. But I must give credit to the deal baby pulled off with APEC but remember the Chinese have never done something that did not primarily benefit themselves first.

You can be sure the Chinese have done a very good analysis of Barryroe and they would not be in this deal if they did not think it was a bonanza. That is why it has gone from one well to three wells to five plus two optional with a non-recourse loan for Providence to cover their costs out of future revenue. If there was not a guarantee of future revenue would the Chinese have ever entered into this deal?

In previous items I have raised the question of the gas. With Kinsale nearly dead there is a big opportunity to use Barryroe gas to replace it but they have gone very quiet on that. Surely that is bunce which can be developed at minimal cost given the infrastructure is in place.

So I have now, hopefully like many others, averaged down my holdings in both Providence and Lansdowne to peanuts with many of my buys well in profit but I will now ride the ride as I now expect nothing but share appreciation over the coming months.

As I have said before quoting Milton, "They also serve who only stand and wait". And haven't we waited?
If we get the same ride as we did in 2012 when the shares went up to £6 with 60m shares, the least we can expect now is at least £1 given that there are now about 600m shares but the majority of those are in institutional hands and you can be sure, once the pudding is proven, the institutions will be in to buy up as many as they can get their hands on leaving a very small free float for the rest of us.

Rather than being an oilslick in the sky, I am still here. Don't whisper it too loudly but I used to have the moniker Sobeit on the iii website.

Two things happened; got into a spat with iii after posting a "positive" review of a contributor called Disorder where they blocked all my posts. Second, the iii website turned itself into a load of rubbish which nobody now posts on so that would be like "whistling in the dark" anyway even though I still have the facility to read it.

I didn't want to carry the name Sobeit over here so now I only post here occasionally as "manyana" which means "tomorrow" which is when we will all be in gravy but there is no point in talking to the converted and there is no point in talking to the naysayers as they would not accept it anyway.

When the Providence share price goes above £1 I will ring the bell and shout "Told you so" and say "tomorrow has arrived".

So good to know that Sobeit is still remembered and just to prove that was a previous incarnation of myself, I can still claim that even today, I am still the leader in the 2012 iii competition where my two share picks, Barratt and Taylor Wimpey still lead the field by a big margin and have made me a lot of money in the meantime while my second two choices, Providence and Lansdowne will soon show their true colours.

An Taisce can beat the drum but there was no winner in yesterday's judgement.

How do I know? Well if you read the item on their website the last few words state "No Order as to Costs".

In other words, the judgement said it was stalemate, otherwise the judge would have made an order for costs against either party but he did not.

Now DCCAE might have agreed to pay An Taisce's costs but since An Taisce is funded by the Department that makes sense but does not imply guilt. It was just another means of funding them as otherwise it would have been "Robbing Peter paying Paul".

Anyway, Providence comes out of this smelling of roses because they had the good sense to withdraw the approval months ago and reapply, obviously taking cognisance of what it was that An Taisce objected to, so this whole episode was totally irrelevant and as I say, "a load of hogwash".

I was hoping it was the Barryroe second approval which is still outstanding pending the Judicial review scheduled for Monday. The sooner that is given the sooner the drilling of the wells.

Barryroe is bird in the hand. The rest are still in the bush.

Unfortunately it is not for Barryroe but for Avalon.

Providence gets approval for license.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/providence-receives-approval-to-explore-new-oil-prospect-off-irish-coast-1.3762534

So why is the review taking place if it is irrelevant?

Have you a link that actually says Providence has put in a new application? They stated they would, having withdrawn the first, but there is no reason why the first cannot be reinstated if An Taisce loses and I am sure the Department would accept its reinstatement immediately.

And I still have not seen what An Taisce were actually complaining about? Have you?

Judicial review down for this Monday .

I hope if An Taisce loses that the Department does not give them any further finance as to date they have been An Taisce's main funding.

Monday could be very important as it could seriously progress Barryroe development if the decision goes the right way.

Further to my post regarding the traders dealing in a calendar year it would look like the balloon is on the way up and they are starting to dive in.

Lansdowne has been doing very nicely over the last few days but Providence is now starting to get some traction with, for example, a near 10% increase today.

Hopefully, this trend will continue up to the drilling and final appraisal of the lower Wealden and Purbeckian when it is claimed there could be over 1billion barrels in Barryroe.

That would make both Providence and Lansdowne really exciting with 400m barrels to Providence and 100m to Lansdowne. Not bad for a share trading at about 1.75p when its profit from the oil at $25 a barrel would be about $2.5billion and it has a no-cost carry.

I agree. This is an undersold asset.

What is not taken account of is how traders work on a calendar year. To that end, the lower the price at the end of the year and the subsequent purchase in January means they have one year to make maximum profit as they can use the year to make the most based on a January starting price.

Hence the increase in the prices of both PVR and LOGP starting today. Hopefully that will continue over the coming weeks leading up to the approval, the survey and the drilling.

Remember, O'Reilly has 12m and O'Sullivan has 9m options that must be exercised at 45c by August 8th of this year or they will lose them. I am sure they will be keen to see the price well ahead of that when the drilling has completed.

I don't agree, Cagney, that the 250-300mil is just for the drilling.

Back in 2017 when Providence were planning to go it alone with well 48/24-K which is one of the wells planned in the APEC development they stated that it would "Prove 463 MMBO STOIIP c. $25 million well cost Progress towards FID"

So they estimated it would cost $25m for the well with a view to production. On that basis since the initial cost to Providence is 50% of 5 wells, the other two being at the option of APEC, the costs work out at $125m for the five wells and the wells are all being prepared for production as well as appraisal.

So there is far more work involved in the $250m to $300m and the difference would cover the cost of the infrastructure not least the gas since that is already in place from the Seven Heads gas field with its connection to Cork.

In my opinion, if Providence are saying it is going to cost $250m-$300m for the initial phase then they are being ripped off on the basis of their own estimates from 2017.

Bronxville, I am sorry you failed to understand the comparison.

Corrib cost $3.5billion with only the equivalent of 170m barrels of oil. Barryroe with 350m barrels of oil is anticipated to cost $300m.

Which, by comparison, is the better deal or are you incapable of making that decision?