Member Info for Manyana

To 1Cagney,

You must remember that shale wells have very short time spans and must be decommissioned after use.

But even if you accept $60 a barrel with an oil price hovering around $60 a barrel (WTI $55 and Lousiana $65) there is no margin at present hence to article showing that the big financial boys do not want to invest in a non-return item carrying, in some cases, a coupon of 17% with companies not making profits.

So at $25 a barrel Providence's heady days could be ahead.

As for the issues with Barryroe, while I am not a great fan of O'Reilly, I have to admit this is not of his doing. This was a departmental mistake, or at least that is how it appears except that DCCAE and An Taisce left court without any real conclusion.

However, the demand by the department for further information from Nexen might be the key. If the extra information gets out from under the noses of An Taisce it will give the department and Providence a clear run at their permission as Nexen will be precedent.

The current situation was the request by DCCAE to Nexen on 12th February for extra information which I now see Nexen provided on 22nd February and the public (or others) have until 8th March 2019 to comment on it.

If all goes to plan and no objections appear Providence can apply for the new survey starting on March 10th using Nexen as the precedent which would then take it to June to launch the survey which would allow for drilling in Q3/Q4, still within the parameters set out by Providence.

Interesting article today in oilprice.com regarding shale in the US.

It was always reckoned that shale cost $70 a barrel to break even. So over the last few years while America has been pumping the stuff it has been at a loss. It now seems the chickens are coming home to roost and the finance companies are starting to lose interest.

Given that Providence reckon it takes $25 a barrel to get oil out of Barryroe it will be well able to compete with shale at $70 with nice profits.

Come the day, come the hour.

Article worth a read at:

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Wall-Street-Loses-Faith-In-Shale.html

Further to my previous item regarding Providence and carbon capture where that item from 2009 deals with gas storage there is a previous item to that from 2008 which reads as follows:

"Irish Energy Group launches carbon capture scheme

Providence Resources, an Irish oil and gas group, is launching a project that could lead to the first carbon capture & storage (CCS) scheme in the British Isles. Providence Resources is working with Star Energy Group, a UK gas storage company owned by Petronas of Malaysia, on the Ulysses Project. The scheme will evaluate the Kish Bank Basin in the Irish Sea to decide whether its underground saline reservoirs can be used for carbon sequestration and natural gas storage.[11]"

You will note that the company Providence was working with, Star Energy Group, was a UK company owned by Petronas who are the current owners of Kinsale Head, through Kinsale Energy Ltd and cover Ballycotton, Kinsale Head and Seven Heads gas field which sits on top of Barryroe.

So, is Providence going to do a deal with Petronas, through Kinsale, for the interconnected, exhausted gas fields off the South coast of Ireland?

As I said, with Providence, what goes around seems to come around.

I might be wrong but the "messiah" has failed in his three day announcement of the survey. He is probably a twelve year old messing about on his daddy's PC during the half term and like the famous monkey of old who wrote Shakespeare's plays he just kept hitting keys.

What is interesting about the storage capture in this morning's article is the statement that "Providence technical director John O'Sullivan said the company was looking at a potential carbon capture (or carbon sequestration) project off the south coast, where the Kinsale Head gas field is due to be decommissioned over the next couple of years."

Does that mean Providence are going to take over the Kinsale Head field? Seven Heads, part of the Kinsale infrastructure, sits over Barryroe so if there is gas further down in Barryroe it could be released to replenish Kinsale but I am sure Providence do not want to give Petronas a free ride on the decommissioning of Kinsale.

The thing with Providence is what goes around comes around. Who remembers Eirgas? Here is a refresher.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=20100917070100H4994

So, is it possible they want Kinsale Head to store the gas coming out of Barryroe rather than carbon which would be more beneficial but not quite so environmentally friendly.

Who knows as the management of Providence are like foxes jumping around trying to hypnotise rabbits who sometimes seem to resemble ourselves with whatever fantasy pops up in their heads.

We will wait and see.

If we assume EXOLA equates to Barryroe then APEC have a 50% working interest in its assets but Providence still owns 100% of EXOLA's shares.

So, in effect, Providence could sell EXOLA to a third party without the consent of COSL but they would have to guarantee that the new owner honoured the financial terms and the potential for COSL to take control of the development of Barryroe.

So a two way route for Providence. Stick with the development of Barryroe and alternatively sell EXOLA to a third party, probably APEC but technically anybody who wants to buy.

All we need is that pesky survey and the drilling to really get this baby flying.

s.

I am saying exactly that if Barryroe comes good, Providence will have a cash flow to generate and develop the rest including Spanish Point and Avalon without recourse to third parties. They would have he capacity to borrow billions to develop others out of the potential cash flow from Barryroe.

Just look at Tullow who have billions of dollars debt but huge reserves so their debt is totally manageable and yet started up as a mickey mouse Irish company years ago through an accountant, Aidan Heavey, who went on to Aer Lingus and then founded Tullow which developed into one of the largest European oil companies.

After all, if there is 12billion barrels in Avalon that will make it the largest oil well in Europe and just consider the value of that so why would you sell it? Given the usual value of $5 a barrel for oil in the groundthat would equate to $60billion. That would make each of our shares worth $100. So why sell the company and at what price?

Why can't Providence become a major oil company which would be possible if they strike lucky with Barryroe and have the foundation to become a self-independent major oil company?

And just a further note on a point I made yesterday regarding the buy back of shares by San Leon. I read today that Toscafund, like myself, will not participate in the buyback because they reckon San Leon shares will be worth far more than the buy back in the future especially if Barryroe comes good.

Actually, COSL already technically owns 50% of EXOLA because all of Barryroe is in there and they own 50% of the project.

The whole idea of Providence setting up EXOLA and putting Barryroe in there was exactly to be able to sell it off by just selling its shares to a third party.

That way, the rest of Providence remains an independent unit and if Avalon comes up with 12billion barrels, what price will somebody pay for that, especially if it is proven after Barryroe goes active? You are talking billions of pounds with a share price in the heights.

Let me give you an example. In the 1970s I bought shares in an oil company called Keywest in Australia for peanuts. They were taken over by Woodside and about 8 years ago I sold the Woodside shares for AU$44 a share.

That is the game we are playing. Prove up Barryroe and if successful use the revenue to develop Avalon and others making Providence a "major" oil company which was Daddy's objective and intention ever since he set up Atlantic in 1981 when he stated he wanted to be the J. R. Ewing of Ireland (aka Dallas).

Dusterinmog,

I think you must be out of the cast of "One Flew Over The Cuckoo Nest". But like Jesus Christ you still have three days to prove you are unlike myself a "pseudo messiah" a real "messiah". Good luck and I hope you are right.

I have rung Providence some years back to query something. What was their response when I was finally put through to the pet dog? Sorry! that would be insider information.

If you know for a fact that they are going to submit this week and you have insider information both you and they are legally liable.

So please furnish your proof or wipe your rear end and get off the pot.

Looks like San Leon is finally turning the corner. But is this a good deal?

For myself, I will be holding on because, if Barryroe comes good, San Leon will be worth a lot more than this offer.

To answer your question regarding San Leon and Barryroe, San Leon swapped its 30% of Barryroe many years ago in exchange for 4.5%nett profit in any oil produced from Barryroe. At approximately 50$ a barrel, Oisin Fanning reckoned this would be worth about $700m to San Leon and that was based on the 345mbbls. It will be far more than this if they find 1billion when they drill the Wealden and Purbeckian.

In the deal with COSL, that 4.5%nett profit comes out of Providence's share as follows:

In spite of the improvements to the farm in terms from PVR’s perspective, the only other significant change to
the deal is the assignment of San Leon’s 4.5% net profits interest (NPI) in Barryroe. The NPI was originally
granted by Providence during its acquisition of San Leon’s 30% equity stake in Barryroe in 2011 (which increased
its own interest to 80%). When the APEC deal was announced in March, we had assumed that the Chinese
consortium would assume 50% of the NPI, however this is not the case, with Providence to retain the full
obligation. In practice this is not onerous, with the allocation of the interest reducing our risked Core NAV by just
c.9p to 101p/shr.

So San Leon is in for a free ride on Barryroe with a potential big pay out, which will probably be a big buy out if Barryroe becomes commercial.

On that basis, I will be hanging on to my San Leon shares as I am still happy looking for the bird in the bush rather than the sparrow Oisin Fanning is now throwing to his faithful.

As far as my cake hole is concerned at least it is at the top of my body rather than yours which is at the other end.

I have been an investor here since the heady days of Atlantic so I am well invested here and have many of these at prices as low as 1.2p for Lansdowne and my best price for Providence is 8.25p so my cake hole has a nice piece of cake in it while yours, at the other end, is obviously spewing out chocolate fudge.

You have three days to prove you are right. If you are right you will be one step towards being a hero but if you are wrong you will have proven conclusively you are an a*******".

Unfortunately for years we have had monkies rather than organ grinders.

Perhaps you should pick up the phone and if you have tell us what they said.

I hope you are right and the goes in this week and we wait the 90 days. But given that Ireland is under the tow of the EU and not its own masters just wait until An Taisce picks another hole in the proposal. And having read it you could drive a coach and horses through it, it is that vague.

Good luck and I wait to hear you have picked up the phone and tell us what waffle you get back.

Believe me, 1Cagney, I have far better things to do than read through hundreds of pages of gobbledygook but the fact that Nexen got their permission but the department went back on it and requested further information at such a late stage made me wonder if that was not the same issue as Providence and Barryroe so perhaps if Nexen can solve the problem it will not affect Barryroe.

To that extent, I have now gone through three levels of waffle, Nexen's, the EU directive from 2013 and the subsequent direct of 2014. It is like getting caught in a big pit of quicksand, you wallow around with little chance of making it out.

If it is the case that Nexen and Providence are in the same boat, then we have to wait and see when Nexen get their approval through. Given the 90 days from 15th Feb. that puts us down to May. If Providence do not put their request in until then we are now out to August for the survey so we might be lucky to have the drilling in Q4. That is why I call myself "Manyana" - tomorrow never seems to come even though I hope it does.

The directives, if you want to read them (why would you?) can be found at http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2013/si/134/made/en/print and this was followed up in 2014 with another one to clarify the 2013 one and that became effective in 2017 and it is that one which is probably kicking Nexen in the rear end.

The review of the IOLAR Nexen request dated 12th February is interesting because it would appear that the reason for that review is the same as the reason why the Judicial Review of Barryroe was requested. It would appear the Department got it wrong for Nexen but An Taisce did not appeal that - killing two birds with one stone.

I went through the 90 pages and was very worried about the otters, the birds and the bottle nosed dolphins but if they are going to go 250km out to sea it should surely be their fault and if they want to swim over Barryroe there is plenty of places along the south coast where they can beach instead.

Hopefully, now that the department have seen the light, dusterinmug might be right and they can start the process of giving Providence the green light for the survey even if it takes 90 days to get the documentation and the approval through.

Here's hoping.

I agree.

And given the usual "mushroom" information (cover in xxx and kept in the dark) from Providence which talks about the survey of Avalon it does not say if Total are driving it since they hold 50% so then surely they should be the prime mover with the most resources.

As for Barryroe, well that looks to be at the behest of the DCCAE and the revised approval for the survey. As I mentioned previously the COSL INNOVATOR is tied up in Norway, I presume, just waiting for the word. I note from its reference that it is "ready stacked" which means "A ready stacked rig typically retains most of its crew and can deploy quickly if an operator requires its services." That is interesting because that means it is idle but ready, crewed, waiting go. If it was just swinging the lead and out of service it would be referenced as "cold stacked".

So, we would hope once the DCCAE gives the go ahead it can get underway with the survey and the drilling. Hopefully then we will see the share price get some life rather than it too looking like it is "ready stacked".

If the reference was to myself as "naughty boy", thank you for the term "boy" and I preferred the term "psuedo".

As for the survey, a number of license holders in the Atlantic got together and arranged for all of their areas to be surveyed in one fell swoop rather than piecemeal. This was obviously far more financially beneficial. It was then up to each to analyse their own share of that survey.

You will see from the following that the survey was "multi-client".

https://subseaworldnews.com/2017/04/24/tgs-plans-crean-3d-survey-off-ireland/

Furthermore, it was a 3D survey with the latest technology which must have given them a far more detailed analysis of what was there. We don't want another Druid/Drombeg billions of barrels of water.

Furthermore, it is interesting that Total have had an excellent 2018 year and they have started a number of large projects with Aramco. The fact that they are now keen to advance Avalon is a good sign as for years they have been a very cautious player among the oil majors.

Still a pity, though, that we are talking about a drill in 2021 when what we want is a survey and a drilling in the next six months in Barryroe. Hopefully news of that soon with An Taisce hiding under a rock somewhere out of harms way.

Good news but the wrong survey.

The drill ship for Barryroe, the "COSLINNOVATOR" is now docked up in Norway in the port of AAGOTNES and has been for some time. https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ports/822

As for my moniker "Manyana", that was chosen in hope rather than expectation. Meaning "tomorrow" which might never come, it is a hope that Providence can do something with Barryroe before I go, as somebody said, "to the great oil slick in the sky".

Unfortunately JH77 it has been a royal pain for the last six years.

Remember when Providence found Barryroe in 2012, Providence sold 13.1m shares to raise $100m with the promise that the money would be used to pay off some debt and to develop Barryroe - never happened. The reason why he did not sell another 13m shares at the time and use that was because Daddy, back then, owned 45% of the company and selling another 13m shares would have reduced his equity and it was rumoured that the Indians wanted to buy the company for $1.1billion. Remember, there were only 60m shares at the time.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2012/0402/315807-providence-raises-100m-in-share-placing/

Then we had the Sequa saga which was also a disaster as they could not raise the money.

Neither was delivered so people lost faith in Providence especially when they learnt of the Transocean fiasco which they conveniently forgot to tell us about until it ended up in court.

For myself, I have been berated by my family over the years on the basis of "tell us another" about Providence as I had "persuaded" them Providence and Lansdowne were a good investment. If it comes good they will be lining up at the door to get compensated as I have continued to buy while they have been nursing their losses.

I have kept the faith but at a price. For those long in the tooth they might remember the famous Blinkx competition where you chose 4 shares. I am still the winner of that competition by a street because the 4 shares I chose were Barrett Developments, Taylor Wimpey - both "horrible" builders back then who are now ripping off their customers with buy to let and lease schemes making them millions - and two total lame ducks in Providence and Lansdowne.

If I had sold all my Providence and Lansdowne back then and invested it all in Barrett and Taylor Wimpey I would now be sitting on a private island along with Richard Branson instead of waiting for the minister for Communications, the EU and An Taisce so that the Chinese who have the money and the nous can "exploit" Irish resources.

All that is in the way is that pesky survey and until we hear the result of that we might as well be back in 2012 where it was all huff and promise.

For the last number of months I have been like Rip Van Winkle when it comes to commenting on sites like iii and this - it was only the deal with the Chinese which woke me up - so perhaps it is time I went back to sleep until the survey issue is resolved one way or the other.

I agree, Anovas, but sometimes it is not a bad idea to say what we think when as JH77 says we are not kept informed.

In the past, I always thought of O'Reilly as going off "half cocked" with his statements which were more hope than reality and that was what I was saying about the survey going from Q4 to Q1 to Q2.

In this instance, though, I believe it is the fault of the DCCAE who seem to have their proverbials in a twist and I would suspect the survey is waiting on them to clarify something in the Directive from Brussels. If that is the case you could find An Taisce can have a field day and we could be into another Corrib fiasco.

I hope that is not the case but the skipjack from Q4 to Q1 to Q2 worries me. Will we see another update soon saying survey postponed until Q3 with development in Q1 2020?

Anovas,

I it clear this fiasco is not the actions of the BOD which are at fault but the whole EU legislation which was probably written originally in Hungarian on the cheap and then translated into 27 other languages.

An Taisce are experts at Judicial Reviews and with their interference were responsible along with An Bord Pleanála for the huge overrun costs of Corrib that allowed Shell to walk away, obviously at a substantial loss, but without paying a penny oil tax to the Irish Government. That loss could have paid the salary increases of the poor nurses currently living near poverty, forced to go on strike, over worked and heading out to pastures new such as New Zealand and Australia.

It is the old adage "The devil finds work for idle hands".

Read the settlement agreement between An Taisce and Corrib and apply it to Barryroe. And then think of a bag of worms.

http://www.antaisce.org/articles/corrib-settlement-means-ensure-better-environmental-law-taisce

You are correct that the survey has moved on again into Q2 but I was pointing out that there seems to be a process of "slither" here as it has gone from Q3 to Q1 to Q2 and the drilling rig is tied up in Norway kicking its heels.

Is it any wonder that the share price is stagnant as we do not know when anything will actually kick off.

As for picking up the phone and asking a question you might as well ring a politician and ask them about Brexit as you will only get the same "fudge" from Providence. I have done it in the past and only got a load of "blather" which for those who do not know that word, it is the same as "verbal diarrhoea" or that substance which comes out of a bull's rear end. It was so useless that it pained me to have to pay for the phone call.