focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Thanks, Which website was the video on?
DC, I don't really understand. What r the implications and why?
POC 10,000-aisc 4660= 5340 5340 x 55,000tns = 293,700,000 USD 293700000 x 0.75= 220,275,000 GBP 15x = �3.3B Current mkt cap= �200M So about 16.5x current mkt cap That is a higher aisc than atym are forecasting, takes no acct of toro or possible further increase in production to DC's point. ANTO currently trades on 22X so 15X is not a huge stretch The negative being Astor but in that context even if I did know the result of the decision I wouldn't buy or sell atym on the back of it. 15% up or down in the short term is meaningless in the context of the possibility of 10x returns in next couple of yrs. The above is of course an EBITA number so you have to knock a bit off for net eps. However it's a conservative EBITA number so you could make a case for a higher projection. Feel free to tear my numbers apart. GLA MM
I am not suggesting it has no influence on the share price. But according to peel hunt a favourable decision would add 28p to share price. So about 15%. A rising CU price, increase in production as mr dc notes, and toro will surely have a much bigger influence on long term returns? Why do u think Astor is such a big deal?
Mr DC, I am very much with u on this one. Using q3 figures we will have full yr 18 production of 43,000 before expansion. We only got 2.66 vs spot price of 2.88 per lbs in q3. ATYM is V leveraged to CU price. I am currently working on projections of figures with CU prices at 5 and production at 55,000. I estimate we would get a 17 fold return assuming we re-rate to 15X. I know that sounds fancy full but I don't think it's outwith the realms of possibility. Very few people following this one. People seem to prefer CAML and the other small cap drilling companies e.g. GWMO, GEO etc. People r saying Ars will have a mkt cap of 1 billion in a couple of yrs and they're hoping to produce about 90000tns. I don't see why atym couldn't get up to 70000. If so then at some point this stock will go up like a rocket ship. I couldn't care less about Astor, it will only make a marginal difference. GLA Manic
-- Cash costs during Q3 2017 were $2.14/lb of payable copper, an increase from cash costs of $2.07/lb of payable copper in Q2 2017. The increase was due to higher than budgeted penalties and freight costs. What r higher than budgeted penalties? I thought it was a good report long term. Sadly short term the higher than expected CCs were V disappointing. As FE said jam tomorrow.
Yes, did not include gold etc. However I have seen a lot of analysts estimates and they tend to be wrong, usually by a wide margin. That's why, I compare with a producing asset, to see what the likely eps will be. Ultimately that's what will drive the share price. The estimates I see on the BB's tend to be EBITA numbers and take no acct of net eps. Don't forget Marianna made the biggest AU discovery we have seen in yrs and had a mkt cap of 80m. That was about 5% of its NAV. Of course that was before it was bought. I just think it's a mistake to look at the resource base and think it will be reflected in the share price. As for the management saying they have a world class discovery I remember Cairn energy saying they had a royal flush when they discovered oil off the Greenland coast. Having said that I think GEO does have something here. It might not be KB but hopefully the other drill targets will find something. My valuation is much closer to 20-40pps Kaz has the worlds longest and deepest CU mine, 2 other huge mines and isn't even in the ftse 100. P.S. I own GEO not atym because I am hoping they find something in excess of 500mt. If they only prove up 50mt then I don't think the shares are going anywhere.
I think I am in the same place then. You are talking turnover not net profit. Then we have to share 50/50. Again I kind of think the mkt cap is about right. The net profit on 10000 will be small, might just cover our drilling costs. Against ATYM, which produces 40000, we would be worth about 40m, 50% to GEO, so 20m. A 50mt resource is not a lot. It's the potential which the Russian drilling has suggested that will drive the share price IMHO.
Atym has no debt and owns the whole asset, has a development project in touro and is looking to increase nameplate by 50%. So given GEO is a 50-50 JV maybe I have been too generous to GEO? ATYM is in full production as well, GEO is potential.
Atym has a nameplate of 10mt per annum and a mkt cap of �180m. On that basis we would be worth 18m in our first yr assuming no increase in reserves. ATYM has a 200mt resource base. On that basis we would be worth about �45m if GEO proves up the 50mt resource? Leapfrog, why are my calculations so different to yours? Of course there is the potential for something much bigger but if current targets are met then the mkt cap is about right?
Thanks, big help. So I am assuming the 60pps is what we have now and hopefully they upgrade the resource as they have indicated they will? MM
Leapfrog, Why did the Russians just ignore the results? Why didn't they develop the huge resources? Am I missing something? Thanks
Daisan, I am guessing you have compared SHG to AAZ. They have similar production, mkt caps and AISC. Which do u prefer? I know it's difficult given the political situation in Tan. Thanks
It's a cash shell with 600K but a mkt cap of 1.14m. What am I missing? Not having a go just struggling to understand this one?