Member Info for manfor

“There is some talk of a peace deal” lol

lol. They have been talking about a peace deal every day in the 10 year war in Syria, and every day in the 20 year war in Afghanistan.

Read the news. The situation has never been worse. Things are only getting worse. Odessa is now being bombed. Russia will soon control whole of the East and the South. How can there ever be peace when Nato does not want peace.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/31/captures-odessa-putin-will-dominate-black-sea/

The news from Ukraine has never been worse. Now Russia is bombing Odessa. Things don’t exactly look like they are improving. This will likely last for many years and may soon involve the rest of Europe.

Expect a big down day tomorrow. Maybe below £2 by end of the week.

And from the other view. Ukraine wants guaranteed Nato protection. Russia will never allow this. So the war will continue for years. Foreign investors will never be able to sell. So shares are effectively worth zero.

All the opinions here are completely one sided. There is no chance of any peace happening as Russia is never going to give up any control of Crimea or Donbass. And Nato does not want peace with Russia. Whatever made you think that Nato wanted peace with Russia? This war with Russia will continue for many years and the sanctions will continue for many years and keep getting worse. Poly and all Russian shares are uninvestable for foreigners and eventually there will be no exit route left for foreign investors.

“I sleep like a log.”

It sounds then like you have no conscience.

Do investors and shareholders here ever think about what they are doing by investing in Russian assets? Do they not understand that children in Ukraine are being bombed and killed by this country? Do investors and shareholders here sleep well at night?

Do investors and shareholders here ever think about what they are doing by investing in Russian assets? Do they not understand that children in Ukraine are being bombed and killed by this country? Do investors and shareholders here sleep well at night?

At present foreigners cannot sell on MOEX, and that will not change until the US and the UK have lifted all sanctions, and that is not likely to happen in the next 20 years. So these POLY shares to a foreigner are effectively worth nothing, and of no value, or zero value.

Gap down on Monday.

“this will rise substantially once foreigners can sell moex shares and are sure they are able to obtain funds on sales.”

And when is that likely to be? At present they cannot sell, and that will not change until the US and UK have lifted all sanctions, and that is not likely to happen in the next 20 years. So these JRS shares to a foreigner are effectively worth nothing, and of zero value.

“even if the shares are sold and assuming they are sold in an orderly fasion over months at a reasonable price, there would be rubles worth around 450p plus the non russian assets valued at 40p, the rubles would be owned by the fund, so the fund would retain that value, holders of jrs would effectively own this value regardless of where they are held and in which bank i would think. The rubles could then be used to buy up shares in kazak or other nearby companies listed on russian exchanges in rubles i would imagine. “

And how would an investor ever get there money out in dollars or euros or pounds? The roubles cannot be converted, so what use are they unless you are willing to live the rest of your life in Russia?

“The sanctions that have decimated its NAV aren’t going away soon. Russia has been kicked out of emerging markets indices and that isn’t going to change for a long time either. “Then there’s the embarrassment factor of being invested in a murderous regime – that can only change if Putin goes. I think the board was wrong to recommend that shareholders vote in favour of continuation and the asset manager will want to disassociate itself from it before too long (as two of its directors already have). Its days are numbered.”

The article basically says exactly the same thing that I said. It says that the manager JP Morgan will not want to continue with this toxic Russian vehicle for much longer, and so it’s days are numbered. They are saying that it will soon be liquidated. The shares will then be worth zero.

Must be a very high risk here that this will be wound up. Why would JP Morgan, a US bank, want to be associated with this Russian investment vehicle when every other company like BP is breaking all links with Russia? Would expect this to be wound up and assets sold for roubles in the next few months which are not even convertible to dollars or euros. Could be looking at zero value for these shares after all charges and expenses.

The sanctions against Russia and everything Russian are going to continue for at least another ten years. Putin and Russia are not going anywhere. Expect this to grind lower and lower over this period. This recent rise is just a dead cat bounce. The debt for Polymetal will eventually become overwhelming as it struggles to operate through all of these sanctions and other problems. Would not be surprised to see these without a listing by this time next year. The shares would then be worth zero.

Meanwhile, Russia has promised to nationalise foreign assets of firms who stop doing business in the country. As the Rouble collapses, this could extend into a mass nationalisation programme in the former communist state.

The miner is in a difficult catch-22. If it condemns Russia, it could have its assets seized by the Russian government. If it doesn’t, it faces delisting in London and will be at the mercy of a closed Moscow stock exchange.

From IG

So the final dividend could be even more than 12.5p if the last increase was 0.31p. If it is the same increase the final dividend will be 12.54p.

I think investors will eventually see the real value of a steady dividend and a yield of almost 10%. Would not be surprised to see this rise to £3 within the next year.

The final dividend is just as likely to be 12.5p or higher. The increase in the final last year was from 12p to 12.23p so the same increase again would be 12.46p.

So the final dividend will probably be 12.5p.

Anyone know exactly why there is such a huge difference between Basic and Diluted EPS for IMB ? One is 250p and the other is 150p.

Are there huge amounts of options or warrants or convertibles outstanding and likely to be converted into new ordinary shares ?

I thought the plan with IMB was future share buybacks to reduce the number of ordinary shares ?

Anyway the Free Cash Flow per share seems to easily cover the dividend, and for income seekers this is the most important thing. There are not too many places where you can get a 10% dividend.

Fair Value for IMB is about £30.

If the institutions don’t want tobacco stocks in their ESG portfolios then so much the better as it means private shareholders can get a dividend of over 10%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4408393-imperial-brands-is-a-strong-buy

Therefore, I see a good chance to lock-in a return of 10-15% p.a. with the optionality for even greater returns should the sector re-rate.

IMB is a clear buy at current levels

IMB is a clear buy at the current level of below $20 per share for a long-term investor who is prepared to ignore the current narrative dominating the market.