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Https://www.ft.com/content/8b3218e1-1801-42b6-9035-c3ba5aded876

Axe oil and gas windfall tax before 2030, urges task force

North Sea steering group calls on ministers to ‘act now to restore investor confidence’

Simply Wall Street

HBR Share Price vs Fair Value:

What is the Fair Price of HBR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

HBR “Fair Value” Today: £3.69

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/energy/lse-hbr/harbour-energy-shares/valuation

Yahoo Finance:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/harbour-energy-share-price-sinks-083000099.html

“And in 2025, the company’s forecasting free cash flow (after tax and before shareholder distributions) of $1bn. This is based on a Brent crude price of $80 a barrel and a European gas price of $13/mscf (thousand standard cubic feet).

By comparison, oil’s currently trading at $70 and gas is just over $15. A $5 movement (up or down) in Brent crude is equivalent to $115m of cash a year. A $1 change in the gas price will have the same impact.

Based on current market prices, it therefore appears as though the group remains on target to deliver the $1bn of cash that’s been forecast. And with the dividend currently costing $455m a year, assuming all goes to plan, it will be covered more than twice by free cash.

Also, the group’s price-to-book ratio is only 0.63 which, in my opinion, suggests the recent sell-off has gone too far. On this basis, investors looking to add an undervalued stock to their portfolios — and one offering a generous dividend — could consider buying Harbour Energy shares.”

Some Large Buys going through in late afternoon trading today, hopefully a positive sign for things ahead for what now looks like a very much Oversold & Undervalued BKG!

Interestingly, a “Buy” rating nevertheless also provided here today by Deutsche Bank:

Deutsche Bank cuts Berkeley target to 4,600 (5,600) pence - 'buy'

US Shale producers need WTI above $70 minimum all while Trump has promised them the world, PoO is unsustainable at these low levels and will not lead to any increase but rather a decrease in investment and production.

Upside potential here now by far exceeds any downside risks, share price here should also get a very nice upward bump once a new CEO is confirmed, TLW is currently looking extremely cheap.

Looking carefully at yesterday’s updates here, CKN now looks extremely Oversold/Undervalued based on almost all metrics, sell off was clearly way overdone providing a nice buying opportunity by Mr. Market, GLA!

Both the results and even more importantly the outlook here are lot better than expected from what I would now confidently call the best managed UK housebuilder at the moment, IMHO. Should be a very good week ahead.

Excellent - Now Still Even More/Yet Another Consecutive HBR Director Buy Here Today (post that of the CEO today and those of last week!):

“Harbour announces that Alan Ferguson, Independent Non-Executive Director, has purchased 21,436 ordinary shares in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at an average price of 186.59 pence per Ordinary Share.

As a result of this purchase of Ordinary Shares, Alan Ferguson holds a direct interest in 45,639 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.003% of the Company's issued ordinary share capital. “

Linda now owns ~9,000,000 HBR shares (equivalent to 0.62% of the company), and she’s even bought here at lot higher share price, not many non owner CEOs with this much skin in the game!

Proactive Investors, Published: 13:28 06 Mar 2025 GMT

Harbour Energy buyback plans fetch broker backing as shares tumble

Harbour Energy PLC has fetched repeated backing from Stifel analysts on expectations for hefty buybacks over the coming years.

Following a strategy update and results, which showed taxes had wiped off the oil firm’s profit in 2024, Stifel reiterated a ‘buy’ rating and 483p share price target.

“We think the strategy update is more pertinent,” analysts said.

Aims for $2 billion to $4 billion in free cash flow cumulatively from 2025 to 2027 and $455 million in dividends annually were flagged, alongside targets to cut debt by up to $1 billion.

Plans for buybacks were also highlighted, which Stifel estimated could see an additional $0.5 billion to $1 billion returned to shareholders over the next three years.

Harbour Energy shares tumbled on Thursday though, by 9.1% to 194.45p, after news losses had widened from $45 million to $93 million last year.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1067500/harbour-energy-buyback-plans-fetch-broker-backing-as-shares-tumble-1067500.html

Market cap here is now an absolute joke, this will bounce back aggressively next week and running into ex-div date in April.

Excellent results, update, and especially outlook!

Increased dividends, impressive c.500 kboepd to end February 2025 production on lot lower costs, much improved reserves (along with very impressive asset/portfolio) and credit rating…,,

2P reserves and 2C resources more than tripled to 3.2 bnboe (2023: 880 mmboe), representing 19 years 2P reserves and 2C resource life

Proposed final dividend of $227.5 million (13.19 cents per ordinary share), in line with Harbour's increased annual dividend policy of $455 million ($380 million to be paid on the ordinary shares)

Corporate and senior unsecured issue credit ratings upgraded to investment grade Baa2, BBB- and BBB- from Moody's, S&P and Fitch, respectively

Production of 450-475 kboepd, a c.80% increase versus 2024; production of c.500 kboepd to end February 2025

Unit operating cost of c.$14/boe, a c.15% reduction versus 2024

SFR share price is now simply way too Oversold & Undervalued to easily ignore where upside potential by far exceeds any downside risks going forward.

Ed Miliband could face axe in the Spring Reshuffle as Keir Starmer pushes Net Zero drive to the side

Ed Miliband could be the most high-profile victim of a spring reshuffle as Sir Keir Starmer sidelines the Net Zero environmental agenda as part of the Government’s ‘dash for growth’, senior Whitehall sources have said.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14451121/Ed-Miliband-Spring-Reshuffle-Keir-Starmer-Net-Zero.html

Simply Wall Street Today, make of it what you will but it somehow corroborates the morning star 970 narrative:

OCDO Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OCDO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

OCDO Fair Value: GBP £8.20

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/consumer-retailing/lse-ocdo/ocado-group-shares/valuation

Https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/261461/ocado-earnings-fair-value-held-as-stock-price-plummets-17.aspx

No-moat Ocado reported consolidated results for the 52-week period ended Dec. 1, reaching £3.156 billion in revenue, representing 14% year-over-year growth. Adjusted EBITDA reached £153 million, ahead of company compiled consensus.

However, despite solid operating results, the stock plunged 17% at market opening on Feb. 27 due to a slower-than-expected growth pace for automated warehouses under its technology solutions division.

Ocado still expects to open at least seven new customer fulfilment centers, or CFCs, in the next three years and projects the division to contribute around 10% revenue growth in fiscal 2025.

With our long-term estimates unchanged, we maintain our fair value estimate of GBX 920. Ocado’s retail business, now a joint venture with Marks and Spencer, reported strong results last month, with 14% year-over-year revenue growth.

Liontrust Investment seems to be buying here as per the RNS update today.

“OCDO now looking like the most oversold and undervalued FTSE company trading, and where upside potential by far exceeds any downside risks today, DYOR.”

Markets provide opportunities and personally, today I see anything under £3 here as a gift/absolute grand bargain to be made.

Worth watching:

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/02/13/the-old-economy-is-still-very-much-out-of-favor-right-now-says-carlyles-jeff-currie.html