Member Info for Malik-

Ok thanks.
My personal view is derating is caused by 2 things, which you could justify to some extent:
1) weakening silver price (although for me even if you include $20/oz silver you get >100% upside to fair value
2)plenty of warrants well in the money, which will keep on exercising. Good for them. They clearly don’t have a clue about valuation or fundamentals.

Appreciate your answers but this sounds unrealistic to say the least. Further you don’t take a £18m market cap down to placing price of a usd 500k acquisition.

Makes no sense. We ve known the price offered since December last year.

You pay usd500k for access for >3moz resource!

Market totally missing the value accretion from the Elizabeth Hill silver project acquisition.
We know the asset has at least 3Moz Ag, before any resource extension; and the company is paying a bargain for it. It’s worth at the very least 3x as much, in my view.
This stock is significantly undervalued...

-“BAM Gold Deposit has shown to be a very easy deposit, easy to enlarge with an enviable recovery rate”
-“It would not be surprising in our view if 4-5Moz gold could be delineated in the Junior Lake Property” (vs 1Moz today)
-“Target of achieving 2Moz indicated...by...PFS stage”
-“The [mgt] team had a really cracking story to tell...at one of the best addresses”

Couple of further observations from me:
1)The analyst uses a very high 12% discount rate in his valuation of the gold prospect. Meaning his valuation is highly conservative. I would opt for something like 8% given the good jurisdiction. A 4pp lower discount rate = +£40-50m on value.
2)People tend forget that Landore has Nickel prospects too. This resource is becoming increasingly hot in light of developments on the battery front

Exactly Dip.
Sadly being on Aim, the market is just not sophisticated enough to work out the maths. At the same time, it makes this market highly inefficient and so, there is opportunity to make money.

Hi. New to the board but not to the stock. I suspect this is the same employee who exercised back in May at 9p (Ben Wasse). I wouldn’t read much into this.

We know there is at least 3Moz Ag there...
Bargain acquisition

In my view this is a great price obtained by UFO; and the asset could be worth 3x more I believe; without assuming resource extension.

I expect both gold and silver to make a come back here, both trading on bombed out technicals. Great optionality for UFO. Stock presents 100% upside on my numbers even if you assumed silver went to a low $20/oz so a (very) appealing risk/reward profile here.

Exactly.

Stock taking a hit. We need to remember that Clogau would 1) achieve a gold price at a multiple spot and 2) have very minimal capex to come into operation and so, I think the derating is not fundamentally justified.
At 1900 gold, Clogau alone worth c£45m...

Even if you assume a lower $20/oz silver price, and conservatively, that they only hit on 10% of strike length at the San Celso project in Mexico, the stock offers 100% valuation upside from here => Appealing risk/reward profile.

I estimate Clogau gold mine alone could be worth £30-45m on conservative estimates, before any relevant extensions to the resource.
Assumptions:
-7koz pa production
-10y mine life
-Gold price: $1900. Achieved price at 2x (vs 3-4x a/c to company)

Hi.
How do you calculate that?
It seems to me that are quite a bit more.
I love the assets of this company, but the number of warrants out there in the money is what frustrates me short term.

I own GGP too. Yes totally different. But UFO assets could well be Jv targets. We getting there on Donovan. Why not the silver?

Given the massive strike length your estimate makes sense too. It all depends how far along strike they manage to hit. What I was trying to say is my estimate is highly conservative.

Option to acquire Nueva Andromeda permit located contiguous to the east of the San Celso project area would increase strike length to 3km. That’s 3x the current strike! MASSIVE. To me this means there could be 50Moz Ag assuming they hit on only 10% of strike!

c3.5% of more shares...