Member Info for Malik-

Bought in after some more due diligence.
My fair value assuming a conservative 4x operating cashflow 2021/22: 0.8p => >2x share p upside.
The currently high copper price (20% above co’s assumptions) combined with RMM’s aim to 1) ramp throughput and 2) improve grades and lower opex/t from Q121 means project economics have indeed improved considerably.

The key take from the results announcement this morning is that discussions on offtakes are taking place, with the company targeting next year for a deal.
Stock trading at mere 5% of blue-sky potential, meaning, it’s is currently priced for armageddon and so the risk/reward profile is here highly attractive.

If you considered selling today, I suggest you read the above calcs.
It’s a fixed cost business so BIG operating leverage to Bitcoin p.

Fair value of ARB at $26.5k Bitcoin p, assuming 15x PE multiple and the increased capacity coming in 2021: £200m => stock has a > 2x upside at current spot Bitcoin.
Today’s rise just gets us to discounting Bitcoin p of around 21k.

I agree. I said on the day of the agreement with ABB that this was a game changer for the shares that should lead to at least a doubling in the shares.
I have added to my position yesterday, averaging up, and believe this share is on to be a big winner in 2021.
We have 1) Extreme E promotion, which can’t be understated 2) partnership with De Nora in which heavyweight Snam took a stake 3) now partnership with multi-national ABB.

Great thanks a lot. Will have a read

Helpful. Thanks for clarification on tax assets.
That gives me net income of £9m instead of 6.
So say 15x on 6m plus fair value of tax asset of 5-10m.
That’s £100m market cap.

No of course not. It was aimed as the sorts of the one who posted just above you here. Some people are incredibly immature.
I have no agenda believe me, nor do I have the time to play petty games to try to ‘deramp’ your stock.

No need to attack someone who could be a potential investor. Thanks.
So they aim at $2/lb but that’s over the life of the project.
They are currently miles away. What’s their track record at delivering in promises? I am trying to work out a reasonable figure to assume in the next 6months. They were at 2.7 in 2019, at 3.5 in 2018 and in between in H120.
You do understand that one can be sceptical about attaining soon.

So they had average p of $2.6/lb in H1
It is now at 3.6/lb
So it’s up 38%.
They had $12.7m of revenues in H1
So revenues for a semester at current copper p = $17.5m
Say cash production and G&A are unchanged vs H1 at =16.4
EBITDA = 1.1
D&A say same at c1.5
EBIT = -0.4m

The operating costs of the mine appear very high to me - and I back of the envelope calcs pointed to at best break even at the mark to market of current copper prices.
Happy to be corrected; open to debate and keeping an open mind - as I am looking for unloved stocks with big upside potential.

I looked at buying in a few days ago.
It should re-rate on copper prices.
What concerns me is that it will continue to be loss making mine despite record copper prices....

I have effectively added 4m of d&a annualised yoy.
Ok, do we know the cost to lease them?
The difference would be how you’d correct my net income figure.

Annualised compared to H120 numbers that is

Have been very conservative on margins:
Assumed: hosting costs rise by 30%, depreciation by 70% on incremental capacity due to come in February.
Assumed admin expense grows to 2m
Interest expense of 0.5m
And 30% tax rate

My P&L forecasts for 2021 (proforma of increased capacity) and fair value, assuming Bitcoin at c$22k
-Revenues: £40m (vs 9m 2019)
-Net income: £6m (vs -1m)
Assuming 15x PE: £90m market cap => >2x upside

Have a look at recent re-rating of Anglesey mining, and look at its historical price chart. To me, this latter is an awfully managed company and Iron has better quality assets.
I understand your frustration having seen the share price collapses - I only just bought in. That said, shares are discounting here a total black sky as per my title above,

I obviously do not confuse.

This is why I specifically say blue sky.
Moreover, this company had the offtakes at its finger tips and decided because of its greed frankly to let that slip.
There will be other opportunities.
In other words it is much further and closer than you think to serious value creation.
The valuation is just ridiculous.

Stock finally started to move.
Potential upside to blue-sky scenario: 20x
Priced here for armageddon

Reminder - Ironveld has:
-30Mt/68.3% Fe
In contrast, Fenix res. in Australia (advanced Fe pjct) has 10.5Mt/64% Fe and trades at USD60m mcap
-80Mt/1.12% V2O5
In contrast, Bushveld (producer) trades at USD210m mcap for 550Mt/1.6-2% V2O5
=> IRON trades at mere 5% of blue-sky potential

This company should already be trading at £700m mcap.
If you look at hydrogen peer group - on an EV sales basis they are trading at 40x sales 2year forwards.
Very conservatively this company should generate sales of 15m from the announcement this week plus say 2m on current contacts - so c17m of sales.
And this is on rock bottom predictions.
Great entry point for what could be a transformative 2021 for the company.