RE: 50% added to resource base yet stock not moving?!20 Jun 2021 16:17
First, this is more political than people think it is.
Europe needs all the resources it has to come to production to meet its 80% self sufficiency. Infinity resource in Spain is close to being frozen; while there are now question marks regarding Savannah’s resource in Portugal for which their partner who was expected to offer an offtake decided to let an exclusive agreement lapse.
So what’s left in terms of resources in Europe now?
Then, Germany has a lithium resource - Zinnwald. It also has Vulcan (which is way behind and is more questionable geothermal).
Why would Germany want to shelve this lithium resource and instead rely on on Czech lithium when it’s own resource is effectively attached to the Czech resource?
My view is that a merger between both resources is something the EU will push for. Remember EMH is only 49% shareholder of Cinovec, with Cez 51% - Cez being 70% owned by Czech govt. So this is very political indeed.
And I do think this transaction will in any case be imposed on EMH whether it wants it or not - obviously my view is that it wants it since not needing something, doesn’t mean there isn’t big merger arbitrage; and letting this opportunity go buy and not acting would be against EMh shareholder interest (I am EMH shareholder and I am very excited about this project too).
You buy something that trades at 1/5th your value, that is immediately value accretive to the buyer. The throw synergies and we are now talking very significant accretion to EMH shareholders.