Member Info for Malik-

*sorry for duplicate.

This is a pull back based on low quality, selling overbought RSI. Don’t be fooled.
When you still trade at sub 13% NPV, a ratio far below ANY other listed European play - despite the recent re-rate and particularly when you know that Ganfeng is offering to buy Bacanora at an implied value of the flagship Mexican Sonora asset of Bacanora at 65% of NPV - you see just how CHEAP this is.
And here I am not even giving any value to the Li expl license which adds an huge 50% to group Li resources, nor any value to its other non Li assets.
BUY!
This is a NO BRAINER BUY.

When you trade at 10-15% NPV the cheapest by a far amongst the listed lithium plays; and when comparing to a 60-65% ratio ofdered by Ganfeng for Bacanora’s Sonora asset - you know how cheap this is…
And here I am assuming zero value for the new Li exploration license and the other licenses they own.
Thi

Mr Cautious:
Sonora has USD800m post tax Npv at 8% at $11k lithium p.
Assume at 15k lithium this rise to around USD1.16bn
I disagree one should value a Mexican asset at the same cost of capital as a North American/European asset.
So I adjust cost of capital up to 10%.
That takes you probably to around USD800m.
Bacanora has 50% of Sonora.
So effective share npv USD400m

Market cap of Bacanora at takeout price: £258m
Enterprise value at takeout price: USD280m
O/W value of stake in Zinnwald (at time I wrote the comment) =c£15m (usd20m)
Ev ex znwd/npv10= 65%, actually

Press release out today on another contract win worth c$540k to be booked to revenues this year. This is indeed significant since it contributes to 15% of annual sales.
Key takeaway from press release is the following statement:
“As energy prices have recovered across H1 2021, we have seen a progressive reopening of the geoscience data market as energy companies resume their exploration and development activities.”

I have been arguing this all along. strong oil prices and reopening of eco mines will bring back lost revenues last year - from what they called point of sale revenues/short term projects.
In 2020, such type revenues had collapsed vs 2019 by -£1.9m - which almost entirely explained the group’s’ £2.5m drop in revenues last year year on year.
I reiterate we are at an inflection point for the legacy business.
And here the market values this activity as though it would never recover from its lows of 2020… Great risk/reward play.

Hydrogen stocks have performed strongly over the past week. +20% on average - with some +30%.
GTC is only up 6% since. No reason for this underperformance. Expect a catch up trade.
Moreover, the macro backdrop is clearly favourable with rates at such subdued levels and having declined markedly from peak a few months back - a key positive for growth stocks like ours.

Over the past eight days, hydrogen stocks are up on average 20% - with a range of 17-30%.
AFC is only up by 10%.
There is zero reason to justify this underperformance, and why the stock should not already be at 70p + just on the back of this catch up trade.
As I said previously, H2 this year is filled with key product catalysts.
AFC is substantially undervalued - and I have a £1.3bn fair value as per my recent post.
Finally the macro backdrop is clearly favourable with rates at such subdued levels and having declined markedly from peak a few months back - a key positive for growth stocks like ours.

Hello.
You can put an order (auction) through, though you may not obtain the liquidity to be able to buy. All depends on whether there is seller at your requested price. The advantage to this, assuming there is liquidity,
is you selected the exact price to pay, so could be the cheaper alternative.
If you want to guarantee you can buy/or guaranteed liquidity - you buy through the market maker (trader). The inconvenience here is they could offer a poor spread (ie you may pay a slightly higher price - perhaps 5% more than for first option).

No one said ZNWD shareholders would accept a takeover near the current share price. On my numbers, EMH can technically pay double the current ZNWD share p, and still have a deal that’s ~20% value accretive post dilution (assuming full equity raise) and PRE-SYNERGIES.
Throw in the synergies and you are looking at big value accretion even at 2x current share p. The breakeven is … well who knows - depends on your view on size of synergies.
Anyway are you a Zinnwald shareholder? If not, let’s take this discussion back to the EMH board pls.

Cez is not going to tell the press: we are going to buy Zinnwald.
It never happens like this for takeovers as you can imagine.
What matters is integration is being considered - and that’s been made public and that’s a huge statement already.

Perhaps worth mentioning this to Cez - who already are planning some form of integration of the resources.

Now does VW get involved? Possibly - I can see something as a second step in which a combined resource is co-owned by an OEM - and VW being the natural party - since they could offer offtake via Skoda to Cinovec
That does make sense, yes .

Not to be rude or anything - but such argument keeps on being posted by the same few on EMH board, and then without running the numbers…
What matters is what value you create to the shareholder in question.
If its 70% accretive to the share price - as a ceo you’d be working against shareholders to let an opportunity like this pass you by.

That’s rubbish, sorry - typical retail and uniformed way of thinking.
When you buy an entity that trades at 1/5th your valuation it’s enormously value accretive, even post dilution - and guess what; that’s even before taking into account massive synergies.
It’s simple maths.
And as an EMH shareholder I am salivating on such prospect.
Clearly with your way of thinking, Zinnwald shares would have crashed by buying out their 50% minority in Zinnwald asset right? They didn’t have the money - issuing shares would have been a disaster. ;)
Enjoy your way of thinking, miss the upside and allow me to load up on both ZNWD and EMH.

So the implied price paid for Bacanora’s Mexican flagship asset Sonora, baked in the 65p Offer for Bacanora is around 61% of NPV of Sonora.
We at EMH are currently trading at 25% NPV - I expect a doubling of that ratio and so share p when EMH offtake is announced.
Zinnwald trades at c10%.
Maths salivating actually.
(I am basing those numbers on $15k hydroxide)

It’d be a very happy buyer of your shares in EMH, if EMH gets involved ;)
I wouldn’t want to miss a 70% run in the shares from any asset consolidation.

I have written my view many times on this..
Ganfeng will not want to be minority holders in Zinnwald. Why would they?
So they either buyout the company or sell their stake.
I am convinced of the rational of consolidating ZNWD and EMH Cinovec. They share the same resource on German vs Czech side. Big synergies In doing so, you d created the LARGEST lithium resource producer in EU.
My personal view is Ganfeng would ideally want EMH+ZNWD combined. But that is politically difficult.
So my view is the sell their stake to EMH.
This deal would be hugely accretive to EMH shareholders - and being an EMH shareholder myself, I am hugely excited about this optionality.
In any case, Zinnwald is a takeover candidate - whether by Ganfeng or in my eyes, to EMH more probably - so it warrants an M&A premium in any case.
Ganfeng won’t sit idle on the stake as Bacanora does.

*so you get the idea…

And just for your info- the implied takeout price offered by Ganfeng for Bacanora (at 65p) values Bacanora’s Mexico flagship asset Sonora at around 61% of Sonora NPV.
Do you get the idea in valuation differential here/how cheaply we trade at.

*say