Member Info for Malik-

And Getech’s project is at the heart of this

SGN is our key partner - one of the UK’s largest gas networks.
(Worth watching video at bottom on Twitter link too)

https://mobile.twitter.com/sgngas/status/1407628706777026569?s=21

(Nd lastly - it makes even more sense when you think that VW - a German national champion - is the very likely candidate of Cinovec offtake)

Cez director won’t say to press we are eyeing buying Zinnwald… what matters at first instance is they have plans in relation to Zinnwald asset - that’s what’s key. And that’s not EMH, it’s Cez talking - which is 70% owned by Czech govt.
This is a political story; and there is plenty of reason why consolidating the asset makes sense to EU 80% lithium self sufficiency agenda. Why? Because 1) Infinity Lithium resource in Spain is close to being binned as a project 2) Savannah resources in Portugal has question marks after Galp, which is 10% owned by Portuguese govt decided to let lapse their exclusive agreement.
What’s left in EU? Vulcan? Yes - but geothermal, and enormous capex requirements.
So parting from this: what would Cez gain from agreeing to build on Czech soil a processing facility for Zinnwald? They will get something in return - the volumes.
In other words, whether you call this takeover of deep integration the story is the same - it’s hugely project accretive.

Exactly Cez director himself mentioned a few days ago the idea of sharing one processing plant.

Read pages 5-12 of this recent Uk government paper. I am sure Getech/H2Green or both will submit a proposal for their projects as part of this scheme to obtain government funding for hydrogen related projects - -their projects fit this perfectly. Application deadline this summer - Govt announces their chosen projects this October.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/995820/low-carbon-hydro-stream-1-guidance.pdf

Those technicals are rendered irrelevant when since:
1) We have DOUBLED our flagship resource base
2) Expanded our resource by another 35%+ thanks to the exploration license just granted
3) Lithium prices rising >20% since

Shares at our next door neighbour finally starting to move.
To me, the steps taken by Zinnwald over the past week have made it a v compelling story - they doubled their Zinn resource to 100%; and added an explor license which itself raises their Li resource by another 35%+. This dismantles all arguments of a ‘small’ and insignificant deposit nearby.
I own both EMH and ZNWD - and to me a scenario of a consolidation of both assets is a huge upside optionality on EMH shares which the market isn’t discounting at all.
I have said before: at $20k hydroxide, and with an offtake, EMH could quadruple. Then add optionality from a resource consolidation: being on my calcs somewhere around 70% value accretive to EMH pre-synergies => and you’re talking of 5x upside to EMH shares from here.

.

Read my post today.
Yes - Cez director talked of 1 processing plant instead of 2.
Yes my perineal view is Ganfeng I will sell to EMH.
I would love that as a EMH shareholder myself. It’s hugely accretive to EMH even before accounting for synergies

Welcome!

1) We are the next door neighbour of EMH, sharing the same Cinovec deposit on German side of border - yet we trade at 1/5th the resource multiple of EMH (and that’s before exploration license announcement);. This Solarworld stake acquisition was one of the BIGGEST catalysts since it DOUBLED the flagship resource, and as we be been arguing, it was indeed done a V CHEAP price - essentially a gift - since Solarworld is co in administration.
Now, our ownership of the asset is 100% vs EMH owning 49% of theirs. ZNWD shares should still close to double on yesterday’s announcement. The rise so far remains timid - and so, offers a fantastic entry point.
2) We are 35% owned by Bacanora, who received a takeover offer from Chinese giant Ganfeng. My view is Ganfeng will sell their shares to EMH. We are an obvious takeover candidate - and that’s not priced whatsoever by the market here.
3) A takeover by EMH, which I am shareholder of, would be up to 70% value accretive to EMH shareholders before any synergies.
4) BIG synergies in consolidating ZNWD and EMH resource - saving on capex (eg only 1 processing plant instead of 2 as Cez director only recently argued) and thus meaningfully growing IRR.
5) VW a German company is about to decide to sign an agreement for a battery plant 50km away from Cinovec deposit - with Cinovec offtake.
6) We just got an expl license which raises Li resource base by almost 35-50% at ZNWD. This will dismantle the arguments by those bearish on prospects of takeover on basis of smaller resource.
7) Hydroxide p rose to $14.5k, meaning c40% higher NPVs to Li co resource valuations yet stock not factoring any of this.

5x VALUATION upside on assuming a closing of the valuation discount to EMH => 60-70p is my target.

More significant developments from our partner Element2:
https://www.h2-view.com/story/40-waste-to-hydrogen-refuelling-stations-planned-for-the-uk/

(EMH PFS will give you an idea as to the sort of costs to expect from hydroxide pdction from mirca)

Their feasibility study was based on lithium fluoride production - which obtains a significant premium over carbonate equivalent. You ll notice that clearly in the feasibility stats.
The asset can also produce carbonate.
They are now working on how to produce hydroxide.

Production from micra has the distinct advantage actually of being a lot less carbon intensive than spodumene - skipping a step in the process, which I understand being roasting. EMH discusses this.

He talked about the doubling of production previously in a Crux interview.

I do not debate.
This is based on 12k hydroxide.I know.
I am also basing the ZNWD on similar FS lithium prices and not spot.
So the comparisons I make above are indeed broadly consistent.
I am very well aware of the upside to EMH with hydroxide heading to 20k
Vs 12k - as I have written about here many times.

So now we have 100% of resource, and 35%+ additional resource from new exploration license - whilst continuing to trade on bombed out valuations.
We are becoming a very juicy target for EMH/Geomet.

This simply cannot be trading at the same price as when:
1) lithium prices were lower
2) we had half the Zinnwald resource we have now
3) We didn’t have the exploration license which adds 35%+ to Group resources
4) prior to Ganfeng deal on Bac.

This HAS to re-rate. The market is just plain wrong,

So ZNWD now trades at 10% of NPV - and it’s at feasibility stage. EMH trades close to 40% of NPV and Savannah at something like 30-35%.

10% of NPV and that’s based on lithium prices well below spot. Hydroxide is now at 14k. So we re probably on something more like 7% of NPV in reality.
And again, that’s before the very significant increase in total resource from the granting of the exploration license a few days ago which lifts total resources by 35-40%. That company is just too cheap.
And yes, a takeover by EMH would be a no brainer for EMH shareholders and hugely value accretive for us.