RE: Omi16 Dec 2019 14:10
Bhargav, that's one hell of a post. However, having read it I am still confused whether you see a positive or negative future for OMI.
I am also a little confused with the quotes within your post so I feel obliged to reply and clear up some of the inaccuracies for my own benefit and for other readers of your post.
Reagrding OMI's SP, valuation and investment case you say, "It was claimed as no-brainer since Oct 2018, 13p days by many and it has still remain a no-brainer by someone like you at 3p".
For clarity I did not invest at 13p or claim it was a no brainer at that time. I feel sorry for anyone who did as it has been a long time underwater for these investors. However, I do believe that OMI are greatly undervalued at this price. I also believe that it is a no brainer investment at this level. I also expect the 13p investors will get the chance to exit over the next 12 months.
Regarding the Newmont deal you say, "NM bought 19.9% stake in CG in May 2017 at $4 and happily agreed to flog it at $5.3 to some Chinese firm. Not a great deal is it" and "the truth is NM has flogged it despite of it all"
FYI, Newmont invested $159m in Continental and Buritica. $109 for a 19.99% share in Continental and $50m as a convertible bond . Under the deal their return for their equity stake and convertible bond is ~$260m. So ~$101m profit in 2 and a half years. IMO, not to be sniffed at and the Buritica deal sets out another route to profit for Newmont and OMI outwith developing Anza to production. FYI, if Anza is developed to a similar size resource , with similar development costs and valuation Newmont be looking at a profit of ~$253m profit from Anza if they can repeat what Continental achieved at Buritica.
You comments regarding other miners and Newmonts commitment to Anza that, "I don't know any, but I can tell imo it won't here. NM has to spend another $1m to earn in, which isn't exactly big amount in this industry unless they start drilling and find the resource of interest and go for it aggressively, which will take time for us to know...or would remain secret behind the closed doors for year 3-4". You further state, "What it may mean for us.......is speculative. Would the dynamics change in our region, quite possibly, however we are still with the NM and when we look at the report from our Nomad SP Angels we appear to be far behind many of our peers which may mean- what's in store for us"
The $1m is the minimum work commitment for year 2. IMO, once Newmont decides to push on with Anza they will do so at pace and can spend whatever they deem neccesary. IMO divesting their stake in Buritica will focus them on other opportunities in Colombia and contrary to your belief that we are down the pecking order I believe Anza is next in line for in line for Newmont and as soon as the deal with Zijin is signed their team in Colombia will be focussing on Anza.