The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Bhargav, I imagine Ignacio will respond to say that as Continental will no longer exist following the Zijin deal, they will basically become Zijin, there will be no real vehicle to invest in OMI. It may have been a good idea for them to sell off Buritica at a project level, return some of the proceeds to share holders through a special divided and then re-invest in another project in Columbia like Anza. However that's not how it played out.
What may and in deed, I think will , happen is that when the Contknetal.Gold shareholder. PI's, II's and directors recieve their proceeds they will look at the opportunity to rinse and repeat in other companies and mining pojects in Colombia. IMO Anza and OMI will be highly pronounced on their investment radar.
For me with this potential infulx of new investors and Newmonts team in Colombia focussing solely on Anza in Q1 combined with the inauguration of the new Governor for Antioquia in January and finalizing of the Loryser resolution we will have a bumper 2020.
Bhargav, that's one hell of a post. However, having read it I am still confused whether you see a positive or negative future for OMI.
I am also a little confused with the quotes within your post so I feel obliged to reply and clear up some of the inaccuracies for my own benefit and for other readers of your post.
Reagrding OMI's SP, valuation and investment case you say, "It was claimed as no-brainer since Oct 2018, 13p days by many and it has still remain a no-brainer by someone like you at 3p".
For clarity I did not invest at 13p or claim it was a no brainer at that time. I feel sorry for anyone who did as it has been a long time underwater for these investors. However, I do believe that OMI are greatly undervalued at this price. I also believe that it is a no brainer investment at this level. I also expect the 13p investors will get the chance to exit over the next 12 months.
Regarding the Newmont deal you say, "NM bought 19.9% stake in CG in May 2017 at $4 and happily agreed to flog it at $5.3 to some Chinese firm. Not a great deal is it" and "the truth is NM has flogged it despite of it all"
FYI, Newmont invested $159m in Continental and Buritica. $109 for a 19.99% share in Continental and $50m as a convertible bond . Under the deal their return for their equity stake and convertible bond is ~$260m. So ~$101m profit in 2 and a half years. IMO, not to be sniffed at and the Buritica deal sets out another route to profit for Newmont and OMI outwith developing Anza to production. FYI, if Anza is developed to a similar size resource , with similar development costs and valuation Newmont be looking at a profit of ~$253m profit from Anza if they can repeat what Continental achieved at Buritica.
You comments regarding other miners and Newmonts commitment to Anza that, "I don't know any, but I can tell imo it won't here. NM has to spend another $1m to earn in, which isn't exactly big amount in this industry unless they start drilling and find the resource of interest and go for it aggressively, which will take time for us to know...or would remain secret behind the closed doors for year 3-4". You further state, "What it may mean for us.......is speculative. Would the dynamics change in our region, quite possibly, however we are still with the NM and when we look at the report from our Nomad SP Angels we appear to be far behind many of our peers which may mean- what's in store for us"
The $1m is the minimum work commitment for year 2. IMO, once Newmont decides to push on with Anza they will do so at pace and can spend whatever they deem neccesary. IMO divesting their stake in Buritica will focus them on other opportunities in Colombia and contrary to your belief that we are down the pecking order I believe Anza is next in line for in line for Newmont and as soon as the deal with Zijin is signed their team in Colombia will be focussing on Anza.
Bhargav, more buys than sells? Ask yourself where the shares from these sells are going. Every trade has a buyer and a seller. The trades below the mid price, what PIs call sells, have done nothing to drop the price. The market is driven by supply and demand so there must be enough demand to keep this stable amid all these "sells"
Do you honestly beliveve that having Newmont Goldcorp, the world's largest gold miner, on board and funding Anza through to production is no big deal?
What micro cap miner do you expect to out perform OMI next year?
I know that with me being so positive on OMI, the Newmont deal, the Colombian economy and gold in general may make me look like a brainless rainbow chaser but believe me that couldn't be farther from the truth.
I reckon this is a no-brainer and will be at least 12p come next December. As you say time will tell.
Bhargav, definately more appetite to buy than sell OMI at these prices.
Not surprised. At these prices it really is a no brainer. I honestly reckon this could be the best performing micro cap miner in 2020. Just hope I can top up some more before it starts it's rise.
It's all about entry points and the average price of your shares. I am lucky that I have an average of 3.06p so I am heavily leveraged to the potential massive rises here and deleveaged against the potential falls.
To me that is what is on offer to new investors at the current valuation. Massive upside with very little downside from here.
However no matter what your average price is IMHO this is going to many, many multiples of today's valuation and in the future you will look back and think I can't believe I thought about selling and thank God I didn't.
Good luck with your top up below 3p Webb's. You'll need to ready to pounce.
I've managed a couple of top ups below 3p but whilst they drop the bid readily dropping the ask ask below 3p is a much rarer occurance . I've got my funds freed up ready just incase I get the opportunity.
Regarding clearing the 10m shares. They are locked up for 4 months and beyond that I don't expect them to sold until the news flow, volume and and SP increase.
Hopefully the Continental / Zijin deal will focus Newmont on the potential profits they have at Anza and speed up their development plams. For the project.
Continental spent $585 million developing Buritica so selling out for ~$1bn represents a very good return Continental. However considering Newmont invested around $159m for a 19.99% share of the company. Their return is around $200m for a $159m investment. Only ~$41m profit
However, if Anza is developed to a similar size resource , with similar develoent costs and valuatiom with Newmont owning 80% at a project level and 19.99% of OMI they would be looking at a return of ~$840m for investment of ~$587m. ~$253m profit from any similar deals for Anza.
Not quite Will, it's another step closer though and as you say can only be a good thing.
The Creditors Agreement included the proceeds from the sale of Loryser’s assets in Uruguay and the issuance of 10 million Orosur shares to the Creditors.
They have 2 years to complete but look well ahead of schedule.
Savona have been selling off the mining equipment from San Gregorio since March so expect that's all but complete.
The shares being issued on the 11th of December.
So just waiting forn IMC have to confirm that they will purchase the mining and exploration permits. They have until the 27th to put up or shut up so hopefully the Loryser issue will be put to bed by the end of this month.
Not quite Will, it's another step closer though and as you say can only be a good thing.
The Creditors Agreement included the proceeds from the sale of Loryser’s assets in Uruguay and the issuance of 10 million Orosur shares to the Creditors.
They have 2 years to complete but look well ahead of schedule.
Savona have been selling off the mining equipment from San Gregorio since March so expect that's all but complete.
The shares being issued on the 11th of December.
So just waiting forn IMC have to confirm that they will purchase the mining and exploration permits. They have until the 27th to put up or shut up so hopefully the Loryser issue will be put to bed by the end of this month.
Why am I so confident Anza will measure up against Buritica?
Over 50% of holes drilled have intercepted gold at grades over 5g/t
Over 35% of holes drilled so far have intercepted gold at grades above 10g/t
Bhargav, I'm not compairing OMI today to CG today. As I've said before CG are 6-8 years ahead of us and Newmont.
What I am comparing is Anza, upon a success case, to Buritca today. At the end of the day that's the aim here, to develop Anza into a producing mine with similar resources and production capacity as Buritica. We have the funding in place, support of the world largest gold miner and so far we are on track to achieve this.
If OMI and Newmont turn Anza into the next Buritica OKI will be valued a lot higher than 2 to 3 times today's valuation. More like 20 to 30 times today's valuation.
Seems like more and more people are starting see this for what it is. A gift horse!
The Continental / Zijin deal has set the benchmark valuation for a fully developed Mineral Resources of 5.67 million ounce project in Antioquia. Exactly what we ecpect Anza will be.
It's a gift horse for Newmont if they want to buy us out, develop to produce or sell.
It's a gift horse for Zijin if they want an analogous project at a fraction of what they've paid for Buritca.
It's a gift horse for Continentals management if they want if they want to use some of their cash windfall to buy us out and do it all over again at Anza.
I honestly thought this was a 6 to 8 year play but the recent developments have shifted my thoughts and I now think there is a serious chance we colud see some serious action soon.
All the Continental offer does is prove up the potential value of ANZA and how ludicrously low the OMI MCAP is.
Buritica is where ANZA should be in 6-8 years and OMI will own 20% of ANZA at that point.
20% of $1bn in sterling
~£154m!
Or if you prefer
~£1 per share
This really could make me a millionaire!
Nice find investor and explains Newmonts tactics and plans for the region very well.
There here for the long haul and so am I.
People paying 3.40 and 3.49 now. Looking good fo a move up.
I see a nice chunky buy today. Coinciding with my charts showing a break out from the 20DMA.
If I had a crystal ball I would say we are ready for move upwards.
Hi honeststu, I am relatively new so not sure about professor 1. Not seen any post since I started visiting the board.
News expected?
Confirmation of sale of the San Gregorio mining and exploration permits to IMC.
Confirmation of the Phase 2 exploration plans.
Signing of the outstanding mining concessions.
Poor sentiment - Tick
Lack of news - Tick
Good time to buy - Double Tick
I know it's not really OMIs style but phase 2 news would be good before the AGM.
They've been in discussions with Newmont so hopefully we can get some clarity for the phase 2 plans before the meeting.
News of phase 2 plans could be released any time. If Newmont decide to start drilling they can throw as many rigs at at as they like. Once the decide it's full stream ahead this will, IMO, become one of the hot stocks on AIM.
I never give investment advice but if I did I would be saying get as much as you can afford now before the horse bolts.