Member Info for MajorThomas1

Peak, 2p won't be accepted by DELT share holders as it undrmines the value of their investments.

How do you come up with 2p?

What's the rationale behind it?

j1osf, no they would have to pay all shareholders the same value per share

I would be over the moon if IOG offer 21% over NAV

Offer is £2.9bn or 272p per share.

Latest broker note from alpha alue valued WHM on a NAV/SOTP basis at £2.3bn or 215p per share.

So I guess THE offer for WHM is fair.

Oil, in all of this, MS does actually hold the deciding vote. His 16% of DELT carries alot more weight in this situation than the 30% LOG od 25% Lombard own in IOG.

IMO if IOG know they can't reach the 90% threshold they will not get involved in a takeover. So I do think that MS holds the balance of power here.

I do agree that he will see the synergies we do and he won't be loosing out on future upside return from DELTs assets but anything less than fair valuation of DELT is equivalent to dilution of his investment. IMO he won't go for that.

It now seems like an offer will come and IMO I think it may be surprising to other IOG holders the dilution that my be involved. For that reason, I am actually considering selling my IOG holding until this is all done and dusted.

IMO it's a question of the actual value of each company. The share price or current MCAP of DELT or IOG is not what they will be discussing /considering, it will be the actual value of each company. Each company will have their opinion on their own value, the value of the other party and they will come to agreement through due diligence and negotiation.

So what IMO is reasonable valuations for both?

The latest Arden report on IOG, released at the time of the recent license awards had a NAV of £130m for IOG, commenting:

"No change to forecasts or valuation. We have not yet added the new awarded fields into our NAV."

Given the early stage of development of the new licenses I do not anticipate the IOG NAV moving markedly on these additions.

The latest Allenby report on DELT released around the same time and taking into account the upragdes on Sellene had a risked NAV of £192m for DELT, commenting:

"We have upgraded and revised our presentation of Deltic’s risked valuation to focus on the three most advanced projects. For these we now show the valuations using the same valuation quotient of $5/boe as in the success case. For the other earlier stage projects, we have used $2/boe. The risked valuation across the portfolio for Deltic is now £192m or 13.7p/share. This compares with 9.8p/share previously. Our success case valuation for the three most advanced projects remains unchanged at 17.5p/share. The risked valuation on this basis is £120m or 8.5p/share. The share price reflects a very cautious view of valuation and stands at a c. 90% discount to our risked estimates. ."

Personally I think the upgraded valuation quotient on Pensicola, Sellene and Dewar from $2.5 to $5 per barrel is premature. Maintiang the Previous $2.5 valuation quotient for Pensicola, Sellene and Dewar gives these 3 a NAV of £60m. With the less developed assets accounting for £72m combined giving DELT a total NAV of £132m.

Surprisingly similar, arguably very balanced, NAVs.

IOG holders won't like the idea that DELT with no production on the horizon can be valued on equal terms with IOG. However, the high volume propsective resources DELT have on thier books do have substantial value.

Yeah they seem intent on holding is around 1.2p.

Where does that factor in to the narrative of any deal? Really starting to suspect an offer around 1.8p. If that is the case I hope DELT and IPGL tell them where to go.

I usually try to invest with a 2 year outlook.

2 years from now Pensicola and Sellene will have been drilled. I will hopefully have sliced my most if not all of my nitial investment and have a free carry for the drills.

If either come in cha ching!

Seems there are a few gitters creeping in to some holders here.

My advice is try to rember why you invested in DELT the first place. I'm sure it wasn't for a sale of our assets to IOG.

If the bid is under 3p I would rather the board and IPGL knock it back. I'm confident we will see that return and more as we progress over the next couple of years.

Mole,

When do you expect me, you or LOGs administrators to see cash from IOG our IOG shares?

How much do you think we will receive?

How do you think we will realise these returns, dividends, selling on our shares?

Bought more today. Been considering it for a while but hung off as things have gone quiet on IslandMagee.

The news today that a previous director of IslandMagee Storage limited, Stephen Roser, has bought more was enough to convince me positive news is on the way. Although no longer connected to INFA he will no doubt still have his finger o. The pulse regarding IslandMagee.

GLA

MT1

Given the synergies I think thay DELT will be realistic. I just don't think the IOG bid will be realistic enough.

Time will tell. Can't be long now.

I don't know Oil. The DELT board have always been clear they are an exploration company with no interest in taking their assets through to production. The major holders have obviously taken there positions in DELT on that basis.

I really do hope the takeover / merger goes ahead, IOG with DELTs exploration pipeline could become a major player in SNS gas.

Oil, I personally think an offer of atleast 3p would be required for DELT to accept.

The way this is playing out I cannot see IOG making such an offer. If that is how it plays out, IMO it will be very short sighted of the IOG board.

It's clear, IOG need a catylist to increase their value and IMO the DELT resources and their potential impact on phase 2 production and revenues could be just that.

Short term dilution may not be what any IOG holders want but I think it would soon be forgoten if it has the impact I would expect.

Cal Energy Resources are a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy. Warren Buffers Energy company.

Berhshire Hathaway are focused on renewables and gas as a bridging fuel. Cal Energy resources have Gas projects in Australia, Poland and in the UK they have farmed into IOGs core SNS project.

https://www.calenergyresources.com/

https://www.brkenergy.com/

Yeah, seems like they still expect to make an offer.

This seems like a no brainer. They issued their possible offer RNS when DELT were trading around 1.5p so any offer surely must be North of that.

Yet herenit is trading at 1.175

Why on earth would IOG not make an offer?

It may end up an offer that DELT decline but there is no logic in IOG decoding not to make any offer at all.

Oilman Jim's take on it.

"IGas (IGAS) announced the acquisition of a geothermal energy business with a district heating project in Stoke-on-Trent.  There is big money now in the renewable energy sector, not so much from the commercial aspect, but rather the huge government subsidies.  IGAS sees this transaction as an entry point to a fast emerging sector that through the energy transition could result in it seeing significant growth.  Given its other assets, it doesn’t look expensive at a £16 million market cap."

Oil, these forms can be confusing and can all seem the same in the heat of a takeover. Here's my understanding of the reporting under the takeover code.

8.1's for disclosure by the offeror or someone working in concert with the offeror of positons in the offeree company.

8.2's for disclosure of positions held by the offeree including BOD etc.

8.3's for disclosure of opening positions and dealings by anyone with 1% or more.

8.4's for disclosure of opening positions and dealings by concert parties.

8.5's for disclosure of opening positions and dealings by exempt principal traders i.e. marker makers etc.

These forms can tell us quite a lot. Particularly, as Greenwolf alluded to, the forms released last week relating to the takeover of DELT.

Stifel Nicolaus and Peel Hunt both released 8.5's detailing their dealings in DELT shares, as exempt principal traders. There notifications stated they were "Dealing in a client serving capacity"

Stifel dealings
11th bought 2.9m sold 2.3m
14th bought 3.4m sold 3.8m
15th bought 653k sold 500k

Peel dealings
11th bought 3m sold 4m
14th bought 114k sold 39k
15th bought 100k sold 82k

They will say they were just trying to maintain an orderly market. However IMO their actions stifled the action on the 11th and surpressed the market the rest of the week.

More curiously is the Lombard Odier notifications. They sold 21m DELT shares over the week reporting these on 8.3's as a holder with 1% or more:

Lombard dealings
11th sold 15m
14th sold 6m

However with them not being a market maker, they weren't trying to maintain an orderly market. So, what was there motivation? It looks like the takeover panel had the same questions.

On Wednesday Lombard had to notify the market again of these exact same dealings, however this time via an 8(DD) which stated they were "acting in concert with Independent Oil & Gas Plc" and that "The Panel Executive has agreed on an ex-parte basis that the dealings below have no Code consequences."

So now we know that they are acting in concert with IOG and IMO their actions stifled the action on the 11th and surpressed the market the rest of the week.

Is it any wonder the share price seemed so weak last week.

Anyway, things seemed perfectly orderly on Friday with a nice natural rise in SP. Amazing what an intervention from the takeover panel can do!

Hopefully this can continue to rise this week. Offer or no offer.

GLA

MT1

IMO a deal will come.

Stifel Nicolaus, Deltic joint broker and Peel hunt, IOG joint broker both helped keep a lid on the DELT share price last week. Just look through the form 8.5s they've reported.

That tells me both IOG and DELT want this deal. Just a matter of what price and what conditions.