Member Info for MajorThomas1

Mike, are you seriously invested in DELT. you don't seem to understand the buisness model.

DJG as you say some people have been locked in here for a long time. It takes a long to build and advance a portfolio as strong as DELTS.

Fortunately there is light at the end of the tunnel!

With the Pensicola drilling next year, Sellene drilling to follow, then Dewar, then Cadence, then Cordova this should 4, 5, 6 bag over the next couple of years with plenty of opportunity for LTHs and new investors to take profits along the way.

How long have you been locked in here for?

Not half as interesting as your welcome to Cobra Kai post.

Was buckled when I read that.

Absolutely brilliant!

Mole, it's always good to discuss. You say 2.5p I say 3.5p. In the end I expect as you say it will come in somewhere in the middle. Hopefully bot long to find out either way.

I'm sure IOG and DELT will have a prosperous future together or apart. I trust I will profit from both in time.

The sell off yesterday was totally overdone.

Guess the board can buy into the opportinity the same as the rest of us.

Shows they know a bargain when the see one.

Appologies, that could be misleading to people who read without knowing IOGs reserves and resource profile.

To clarify my point IOG have around aroun210bcf reserves and resources. 2P reserves of 156 Bcf, 2C resources of 55 Bcf.

The context to the comment is in the future. The failure of Harvey has left us with no near term resources to mature and replace. production never mind increase.

The production profile of the core profile is not good. CalE do not have not invested in the infastructure for only 210bcf. Further rources are required to ensure a suitable development pipeline.

Been discussing NAVs of IOG and DELT with moley on the IOG board. Below is some info I posted in case it is of any interest.
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That's not how this I'd going to work mole. Seems like you've gone to a lot of work to come up with a figure that fits your your hopes for an offer rather than what can reasonably be expected.

IMO the discount in the market at the current time is irrelevant. All that matters is the NAV of each company.

Also where do you get your 42p NAV figure from?
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What broker notes did you use?
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Below is the broker notes I used.

IOG
The latest Arden report on IOG released at the time of the recent license awards had a NAV of £130m / 27p per share for IOG, commenting:

"No change to forecasts or valuation. We have not yet added the new awarded fields into our NAV."

Given the early stage of development of the new licenses I do not anticipate the IOG NAV moving markedly on these additions.

DELT
The latest Allenby report on DELT released at the same time as the IOG Arden report and taking into account the upragdes on Sellene had a risked NAV of £192m / 13.7p per share, commenting:

"We have upgraded and revised our presentation of Deltic’s risked valuation to focus on the three most advanced projects. For these we now show the valuations using the same valuation quotient of $5/boe as in the success case. For the other earlier stage projects, we have used $2/boe. The risked valuation across the portfolio for Deltic is now £192m or 13.7p/share. This compares with 9.8p/share previously. Our success case valuation for the three most advanced projects remains unchanged at 17.5p/share. The risked valuation on this basis is £120m or 8.5p/share. The share price reflects a very cautious view of valuation and stands at a c. 90% discount to our risked estimates. ."

Personally I think the upgraded valuation quotient on Pensicola, Sellene and Dewar from $2.5 to $5 per barrel is premature. Maintiang the Previous $2.5 valuation quotient for Pensicola, Sellene and Dewar gives these 3 a NAV of £60m. With the less developed assets accounting for £72m combined giving to a total NAV of £132m or 9.4p per share.

Surprisingly similar, arguably balanced, NAVs.

Difficult to understand how this can be with IOG progressing the core project. However what value does the in the infrastructure have if there is no resources to produce through it. You need to realise that the massive prospective resources DELT have on their books have a lot of value.

Agree, there is a lot of potential positive news flow over the next 3 months.

Also with the latest RNS advising competing bids for the licence, Cadence is "effectively drill ready", and the new Codova prospect I wouldn't be surprised to see some news here too.

Dewar farm out? Who knows?

Below is the broker notes I used.

IOG
The latest Arden report on IOG released at the time of the recent license awards had a NAV of £130m / 27p per share for IOG, commenting:

"No change to forecasts or valuation. We have not yet added the new awarded fields into our NAV."

Given the early stage of development of the new licenses I do not anticipate the IOG NAV moving markedly on these additions.

DELT
The latest Allenby report on DELT released at the same time as the IOG Arden report and taking in account the upragdes on Sellene had a risked NAV of £192m / 13.7p per share, commenting:

"We have upgraded and revised our presentation of Deltic’s risked valuation to focus on the three most advanced projects. For these we now show the valuations using the same valuation quotient of $5/boe as in the success case. For the other earlier stage projects, we have used $2/boe. The risked valuation across the portfolio for Deltic is now £192m or 13.7p/share. This compares with 9.8p/share previously. Our success case valuation for the three most advanced projects remains unchanged at 17.5p/share. The risked valuation on this basis is £120m or 8.5p/share. The share price reflects a very cautious view of valuation and stands at a c. 90% discount to our risked estimates. ."

Personally I think the upgraded valuation quotient on Pensicola, Sellene and Dewar from $2.5 to $5 per barrel is premature. Maintiang the Previous $2.5 valuation quotient for Pensicola, Sellene and Dewar gives these 3 a NAV of £60m. With the less developed assets accounting for £72m combined gives to a total NAV of £132m or 9.4p per share.

Surprisingly similar, arguably balanced, NAVs.

Difficult to understand how this can be with IOG progressing the core project. However what value does the in the infrastructure have if there is no resources to produce through it. You need to realise that the massive prospective resources DELT have on their books have a lot of value.

Yeah I noticed that premium to the current SP.

Very good diversify into a growing renewable technology. Smart move by IGas short term and long term.

Good move by the comanpany.

What boker note did you use?

That's not how this I'd going to work mole. Seems like you've gone to a lot of work to come up with a figure that fits your your hopes for an offer rather than what can reasonably be expected.

IMO the discount in the market at the current time is irrelevant. All that matters is the NAV of each company.

Also where do you get your 42p NAV figure from?

Bought in today. Like the fact they are diversifying into Geothermal. The conventional production keeps the lights on but needed something with growth potential until the UK wake UK and see we NEED shale GAS.

GLA

MT1

Mole, how do you come to a equivalent price of 2.5p

Sad to see such poor results for WAND but happy that it allowed me to get onboard at a price I am more comfortable with.

I think it is a great achievemt to become the first independent software vendor to achieve Amazon Web Services competency status for data migration and whilst I know the CEO has a reputation of over promising but if "The Board remains confident that while revenue in FY2020 will be below expectations, the combination of our market opportunity, product readiness, and deepening commitments from cloud partners provides a strong platform to deliver significant revenue growth in FY2021 with the Board expecting a minimum revenue of $35 million." that will do for me.

I'm a glass half full sort of guy, I am investing with a 2 year hold in mind so all I am comfortable investing at this price.

Brilliant summary BadA and my thoughts exactly. If the deal is too right great. If not this multi bag itself over the next couple of year.

DELT must not sell itself short to IOG or any other suitors. DELT only need 1 of their many large volume prospects to come in and this is multi bagger.

I am not being funny and I don't want to detract from what has been achieved by IOG so far but you need to be realistic.

You cannot seriously claim IOG have proven themselves in terms of "operational excellence in delivery and project management." they've built nothing or produced any gas yet.

If the project is delivered on time and on budget they will have proven themselves in project delivery. Only then can they can prove themselves in terms of operation excellence.

I really hope they can and I'll congratulate them if they do. However, trust me very few oil and gas projects are delivered on time and on budget these days.

Anyway, I also see this as a merger and not a takeover. IOG combined with DELT, CalE and Shell would make a good partnership. It makes for all parties and thats why I see it going ahead.

Regarding price I do think around 3p, 1 for 5 shares, is about right. Not because of Mr 3p but from my calculations that would respect the NAVs of each company.

The dillutution here to make the deal is a potential issue but the additional assets will offset that. Maybe holding both companies makes that easier for me to take. Hopefully Lombard feel the same.

I see the MCAP responding positively post merger / takeover.

GLA

MT1

Looking into the history of the new West Kenya assets its is obvious Acacia and the Kenyan authorities had high hopes for them.

In February 2017 when Acacia announced a resource estimate of 1.31m oz at 12.1 g/t

Brad Gordon, Acacia’s chief executive, commented:
“This is one of the highest grade projects in Africa today, and we believe that this initial resource is a first step in the delineation of a multi-million ounce high-grade corridor.

Dan Kazungu, Kenya’s mining minister added:

“Kenya is undoubtedly a geologically rich country, and we are taking significant steps, such as the ratification of the 2016 Mining Act, to establish a robust legislative framework to support our developing mining industry. We are excited about the potential of Acacia’s West Kenya Project, as it could ultimately lead to the creation of a gold mining industry.”

It's Great Shanta have the opportunity to pick up the baton in West Kenya. I think we can count on the government and further resource upgrades in the years to come.

Looking at the base production profile on PUR I cannot see how the MCAP is justified.

2020 = ~18koz
2021 = ~65koz
2022 = ~80koz
2023 = ~85koz
2024 = ~85ko
2025 = ~120koz
From 2025 on wards it drops off steadily through until 2032.

Therea a lot of ifs buts and maybes. If they get early access to zone 8 it increases slightly. If they somehow mange to double production it doubles etc etc.

But this looks like a lot of pie in the sky to me. I think I maybe end up shorting PUR rather than investing in them.

MT1

Mole, DELT are not the only license holder in the SNS. However, IMO they have some of the best prpspoects. That's why I am happily invested in them.

I'm also happily invested in IOG and glad to be in the position of holding a share of a company with a fully funded project and production and revenue on the horizon.

However, IMO what is holding back IOG at the moment is the relatively short term and declining production profile. We only have around 211bcf net reserves and resources. As production starts we need to be atleast replacing the production with new reserves or the company valuation will fall rather than grow. As it stands IOG have no in house options to replace production.

That is were DELT come in. DELT, IMO have some if the best prospective licenses in the SNS. You seem against the DELT purchase. Personally I am glad IOG have identified the issue, are looking to rectify it and have identified DELT as a potential solition. I really hope they can get the deal done, at the right price for both parties!