Member Info for Madpunter

Brent has fallen by around 20% in a month, which is bound to hit share prices in the O + G sector, especially when the MM's take advantage.

Fell by almost 7% yesterday and is hitting the price of the whole sector.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46203175

begger - Probably fourth or fifth after KSA, Iran, Iraq and UAE.
https://knoema.com/vyronoe/cost-of-oil-production-by-country
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_of_oil
However, as the middle eastern countries rely very heavily on the oil revenue, the breakeven cost can be much higher, with $83/bbl required to balance the books for the KSA.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-vs-Shale-The-Breakeven-Myth.html

canny ask yourself this - If you were involved with the negotiations would you want to know what is in the lower zones, and preferably before the end of this year? The windfall from the rise in the POO is also relevant with the end of the tax year approaching. See previous post below :-
Full Expensing of Tangible Property
This provision could be a significant benefit because the oil and gas industry is very capital intensive.

Tangible drilling costs, lease and well equipment, pipelines, and all other tangible personal property can be fully deducted when acquired and placed in service after September 27, 2017, and before January 1, 2023. The full deduction is phased down by 20% each year in taxable years beginning on or after January 1, 2023:

2023—80%
2024—60%
2025—40%
2026—20%
2027—0%
The new tax law also permits used property to be eligible for the full expensing provision. This change may impact merger and acquisition transactions by motivating buyers to structure deals as actual or deemed asset acquisitions rather than stock acquisitions. This is accomplished by enabling the buyer to immediately deduct a significant portion of the purchase price and generate NOLs in the year of purchase to offset future taxable income.
https://www.mossadams.com/articles/2018/february/tax-law-implications-for-oil-and-gas-companies

garytrader - productivity testing at full bore (8 x 8/64" ) = 8 x 529bopd = 4232bopd. Normally this wouldn't be done in practice as the recharge rate would be exceeded and the well could run dry, presures drop etc. However, as there are other zones, 15, 14 and 9 (plus possibly 13) to comingle at lower pressures, then it is possible in the shorter term. If zones 21, 23 and 25 are similar, then even with a 8/64" choke 4 x 529bopd = 2116bopd before adding a pump. The longer EWT was only at the lower rates with a greater choke due to having to flare the gas IMHO.
BP only made a couple of billion profit on $240bn revenue and FRR can produce top quality sweet crude at less than $12/bbl. Look at the post @ Mon 03:16 in the link below. Only the KSA oil is cheaper and only the Algerian and Malaysian is better quality.
http://www.lse.co.uk/view-general-chat-thread.asp?forum=commodities-and-mining&thread=41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322&page=3

If T39 can flow at over 4,000bopd what does that mean in terms of a FDP? Add a pump to the equation and then 6,000bopd is possible, which is $151.2mpa (6,000bopd x $70/bbl x 360d). Ten wells costing $35m (10 x $3.5m/well) = $1.5bnpa, which would give a market cap. of $15bn at the usual 10x annual revenue. IMHO the lowball suggestions for a JV are ludicrous. I'm not suggesting the wells will be flowed at this rate, just showing the potential. The higher flow rate would reduce the well lifetime, but reduce the pressure allowing comingling with the higher zones. There's also the prospect of the lower zones below zone 19 to zone 25. FRR didn't RNS the drilling and perforation of zone 19, so maybe they are now drilling Niko to the zones below, using the money from these 3 trainloads.

IMHO the oil recently auctioned by the GOGC is from FRR. Zaza stated 3 trainloads of oil and there have been 3 trainloads auctioned. It is now over a month since the last trainload was advertised for auction, whereas there were three trainloads auctioned between 10th September and the 22nd October.
List of recent auctions with the amount of light crude.
11th April 2017 for 4,500t
20th September 2017 for 4,500t
13th March 2018 for 4,500t
10th September 2018 for 5,000t
1st October 2018 for 5,000t listed on 20th September
22nd October 2018 for 9,000t listed on 13th October
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf
Assuming that the auctions are advertised around 10 days prior to auction (using the dates the last two auctions were listed), then if the next train is filled at the same rate, there should have been one advertised 21 days after the 13th October = 3rd November. No new auction has been listed yet, despite more than a month elapsing since the last listing. Prior to these three trainloads the auctions were roughly 6 months apart and FRR was selling twice each year (once in each of the half year accounts). Why would production increase from 5,000t to 9,000t? The change to productivity testing could explain the increase, where the choke could be opened allowing unrestricted flow, followed by fully closing the well. This creates a pulse allowing data measurements to be collected from the reservoir.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/b4d2/d236dcd461181b957acc499f9cb4722740e6.pdf
9,000t oil = 69,390kbbls for oil of 41.5 API (7.71bbls/t)
https://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/ConversionTables/Images/CCSS1015_Energy_Industry_Conversions_LRG.pdf
If the well bore for T39 is opened up then 8 x 529bopd = 4232bopd (as 529bopd was for a choke of 8/64", although the equation is not linear as there are other variables). At a rate of over 4,000bopd + T45, Dino and the Zone 9's, even with fully closing T39 to create pulses, then there's ample time to fill the trainload.
I also emailed GOGC to ask if they are auctioning FRR's oil and posted the following to a Yellow Jersey subject heading:-
Does FRR sell it's oil via the GOGC auctions?
No reply from either. If FRR was selling it's oil the same way outlined in a previous RNS, with Trafigura via train to Batumi, then why not answer with a reference to that RNS?

Will need stock, hence the buys and sells match nicely. The daily chart 50MA @ 0.3930p moved a lot closer to the golden cross with the 200MA @ 0.4190p, with just 260 points between them (I think it was 284 after yesterday and 293 after Friday). After the rises of the 3/09/18 and the 8/19/18 there have been pull backs, and the recent rise of 2/11/18 is no different. However, IMHO it is very risky to trade as the big RNS could land at any time.

Just dropped 15%!

Laks - Probably right. You'll laugh at our little exchange over on the FRR bb.

I thought that would amuse you! I read a lot and pick up lots of useless bits of information along the way. I used to travel a lot as well, where I also picked up ...ditto.

BH is the normal word for “bra” in German, whereas the full form Büstenhalter is now formal and quite unusual in common speech.

Who's inebriated with the exuberance of his own verbosity! Lol.

Entirely different meaning in Germany!

1onic - I thought you'd be worth more than a couple of mill. with your charting skills.

Laks - The previous posts are not intended as investment advice, just a possible explanation of the recent spike. DYOR.

EIA estimates that U.S. natural gas storage inventories were 3.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of October. This level was 16% lower than both the 2017 end-of-October level and the five-year (2013–17) average for the end of October and was the lowest end-of-October level since 2005. Add this to possible increased snow for a moderate El Nino = short term price hike.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/natgas.php

Laks if you look at the maps especially for the moderate El Nino in the link I posted earlier, the warmer area is in the interior, where the population is more sparse.

Laks - People have short memories and the last moderate El Nino brought record snowfall. There's no guarantee this will be a moderate one or that there will be another very high snowfall, but people never learn.The link shows all the El Nino events since 1950 :-
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/another-mild-winter-noaa%E2%80%99s-2018-19-winter-outlook

Laks - One of my best friends arrived here in his slippers and PJ's due to Amin's thugs.

Pity you can't trade 1onic as you've read him like a book.

A moderate El Nino is more likely to bring increased snowfall, hence the spike in natty.
https://opensnow.com/news/post/el-nino-what-it-means-for-snow-during-winter-2018-2019