Member Info for Madman-Rob

Over the years I was seduced by the potential and was able to buy and sell a little on the highs and lows. What I had not allowed for was the failure of the first 4 wells with something as basic as understanding the mud issues and over pressurised drilling issues. Surely testing Mou-1 could have flagged the mud issue at an earlier date?

Why it took them up to drilling Mou-5 before they understood the sands is confusing to say the least, LB being sacked confirmed that they had failed big time.

The rampers have always been right with the potential

The de-rampers were spot on with calling out Predator .

What was missing was reaching a point in time where the history could be used to move forward .

I have to say in PGs favour that he has worked really hard to get us to this position. What he has done in Trinidad is amazing and although Morocco has been problematic and resulted in over a million shares , we have finally reached a tipping point. We have also remained debt free.

So what has changed?

Two independent technical reports have been published along with 2 spud dates. Both show an increased chance of success. No hype just cold hard data. My previous two posts have set out the reward based on an independent look at Predator.

With a share price of 3p it makes sense for me to see out this stage of development.

A potential sale is probable but along with the market and general traders they will want to see results over promises.

Over to you Predator to make us some money !

Hi Jam thanks for comment.

My view is a trust issue with Predator.

Tbh it needs Predator to actually prove up their assets.

The constant missed dates and fully funding comments have left a bad taste in my mouth.

I'm holding because I like the current risk/reward. Simple as that.

Nothing is certain but at 3p even if it all went pear shaped and became a distressed sale the value would still be higher than today.

The big frustration has been the years of exploration. But they have finally reached, a point in time, where the cost v probability is attractive.

But that's just view.

Morocco – MOU-6: the ITR that re-rates the risk/reward

Predator has now published the 20 Feb 2026 Independent Technical Report for MOU-6, and the 11 June RNS says it "positively impacts risk versus reward" – enough that pre-drill dilution is "commercially no longer attractive."

Returns from the ITR:

• 2C base case: 96.5 BCF (TGB-6) + 28.1 BCF (A-Sand) = 124.6 BCF gross recoverable, 93.5 BCF net to PRD at 75%

• Pilot development: 20 MMscf/d CNG, $9/Mscf, $608m gross sales over 10 years

• Economics: $96m NPV10 net, 74% IRR net, $37.8m capex

Morocco – the reward

• 1 WELL (MOU-6 choked) — 5 mmscf/d

○ Cash: £2.37m/m = £28.4m/yr

○ Bear 12x: 33.5p | Base 15x: 41.8p | Blue 18x: 50.2p

• 1 WELL (MOU-6 full) — 10 mmscf/d

○ Cash: £4.74m/m = £56.9m/yr

○ Bear 12x: 67.0p | Base 15x: 83.7p | Blue 18x: 100.4p

Tax breaks in Morocco:

• 10-year corporation tax holiday – no 31% corporation tax payable until year 11

• First 10.6 BCF of net production is royalty-free, then 5% state royalty applies

• Unused tax losses can be carried forward to offset tax after the holiday

Funding and deal status – what is still uncertain:

• Long-lead items for MOU-6 are funded from the recent raise and are due early August

• This raise covers drilling only – testing is still unknown and unfunded in the detail

• How the final well funds will be raised has not been confirmed. It is possible PRD already has enough, a small raise is possible, and other options besides a farm-out are being considered

• The stated preference is to keep equity and use Trinidad cash flow where possible, rather than a pre-drill farm-out

• Although Predator has not done a deal, one is still highly possible. It could be that a successful drill alone – even before full MDT/DST results – is enough to do a deal

Timing: MOU-6 is now looking to start around August, subject to EIA approval in July and delivery of long-leads. Note: the second Guercif licence extension is due 5 November

Key risks:

• Still a pre-drill resource – needs MDT and DST in MOU-6 to prove vertical connectivity and commercial rates, and testing outcome is not yet secured

• Final funding method for MOU-6 (and any testing) is undecided

• Execution on fluids and perforating – same sands that were damaged in MOU-3

As tit rightly points out failures will lower the share price .

This one is after all the big one but hope these figure help.

Good fortune to all !

My research, feel free to do your own research!

Trinidad – Snowcap-3: flush 1,000 bopd, settled 500 bopd, $52 netback

The March 2026 ITR gave the resource base; the 11 June RNS gives the start-up plan.

Returns from the combined update:

• Resource: 8.73 MMbbls 2U P50 recoverable from Herrera sands (37.1 MMbbls PIIP)

• New start-up target: Herrera #8 Sand – flush rate 1,000 bopd, settled rate 500 bopd (200 bopd minimum to test storage vs trucking)

• Netback: $52/bbl pre-drill vs $31.9/bbl realised in April on current production

• Scale: SC-3 alone forecast at 6,000 bbls/month – about 2.6x current group net sales

• Infrastructure: 1,200 bbls of storage tanks moving to site to enable immediate sales after test

Quick money check at today's WTI (∼$77.79/bbl):

• Settled 500 bopd = 15,000 bbls/month ≈ $1.17m gross/month (≈ $780k net to PRD using the $52/bbl netback)

• Flush 1,000 bopd = 30,000 bbls/month ≈ $2.34m gross/month (≈ $1.56m net to PRD)

Impact figure – SC-3 only (1,020m shares):

• At the guided 500 bopd settled: ~£7.1m net cash/yr → ∼8.3p at ∼12x

• If you haircut for early decline and use 400 bopd sustained: ~£5.7m/yr → ∼6.7p at 12x, ∼5.6p at 10x

• At flush 1,000 bopd (short-term): ~£14.2m/yr → ∼8.3p at ∼6x

Tax breaks in Trinidad:

• Cory Moruga is a direct Ministry Licence – PRD can use up to $100m of acquired tax losses to cut Petroleum Profits Tax from 50% to an effective 12.5%

• Current April production is 85.4% from Heritage Incremental Production Service Contracts, which carry extra royalties and First Tranche Oil at a fixed $16/bbl – this is why the netback is only $31.9/bbl today

• SC-3 benefits from the better fiscal terms, driving the $52/bbl forecast

Operational status:

• Snowcap-3 is funded and is also looking to start around August – long-lead inventory build on track, rig negotiations close to conclusion, spud timing now pending freight and customs

• SC-2ST1 (pressure rebuilt to 1,845.7 psi) and Jacobin-1 re-entries will run first – potential +20 to 40 bopd

• The other two Snowcap wells are also being prepared and are expected to settle at around 300 bopd each

• SC-1 and SC-2 were legacy wells drilled by the previous operator that missed the crest – PRD has not drilled them, SC-3 is PRD's first new test of the structure

Key risks:

• 1,000 bopd flush / 500 bopd settled are pre-drill estimates on #8 Sand – not yet tested

• Timing dependent on rig and long-leads from overseas

• Workover success needed to keep momentum and free up storage

This asset has less of a risk attached to it

Regards !

And there you have it, a reply that totally ignores where we are.

History is terrible and the share price reflects this. We can all agree on that.

There is a mountain of reasons why this share price sits where it is.

Only a fool would dismiss what has happened. But that is only one side of the story.

There is also a part you have convenienly missed; the research gain has opened up two opportunities to finally make money.

In your written responds you have hi-lighted the past but no mention of where we are. Not one bit of research, only a rather nasty personal attack on a director of a company, who has kept this company debt free.

Delution, missed dates and a share drop has effected us all. I'm as disappointed as anyone.

The next two drills may fail, they can also be very successful but what is certain is, one way or another, we will drill two wells.

Forget the rampers with tales of riches

Forget the trolls with tales of gloom.

Just do your research, based on two independent ITRs and don't listen to the noise.

For what it's worth I think Snowcap-3 has a great chance of of attaining 500bopd.

Mou-6 is a risk and after 5 failed wells I can understand the the concern. But they did drill Mou-5 successfully even if they missed the target and with ,Mou-3 they found the gas.

At this price I personally consider it a great risk reward

But again my views are just noise.

So.....

Do your own research!

Found this interesting it’s about general stock market trends. But useful Analogies can be found.

A reminder to DYOR to not listen to noise , no matter how well it is dressed up.

“ we are about to become very rich”

the first one sounds appealing especially if multiple people are saying it

“We are on our last legs as a company “

The second one is concerning especially if multiple people are saying it.

The trick is to analyse both of them and find your own personal risk/reward

https://www.bottomlineinc.com/money/investing/everything-you-need-to-know-about-bull-and-bear-markets/

Regards from a total stranger !

Tit are you a hippie and Stonehenge is a very spiritual place to be.

Porter; if it is me your are refencing requarding, "waking up"?

Do you really believe I've just woken up ?

That is really one dumb statement.

Do you honestly believe that your blinkered view of Predator and it's holders is true? The LTH have years of experience and understand how the bulls and bears work.

I am and never will be anyone's sheep. If I care to join or leave a group it is because I want to.

And finally a reminder that you also have joined the telegram groups.

So if you leave have you also finally woken up ?

For one so quick to churn out your blinkered views you remain silent on the telegram group.

What does that say about your integrity?

Energy conference start of July with Predator in attendance.

https://shorturl.at/5HQF4

It will be interesting to see what comes out of Trinidad in the energy conference.

Trinidad is a less risky asset

Not massive bucks but a useful influx of money.

The Government will certainly be keen to help any company working the old fields.

Paul did talk about additional assets there.

Something to keep an eye open for.

Have a great day everyone and I mean everyone !

https://energynow.tt/blog/

Thank you for your kind words .

The telegram group is an excellent source of information and being troll free was a welcome change.

I will continue to post but to be honest there is very little to talk about until we get news of some kind.

Hopefully someone can find out what Paul says in his Trinidad speech.

I will save my judgment until after the two spuds and results are issued. I’m invested in this company to make money. My view is to hold, based on the ITR and fact that both drills will happen in Q4. Agreed that not all the funding is necessary there. It’s an unknown.

If you don’t like the risk then sell.

If you like the rewards then buy or hold.

The research is there along with the risk. It can fail

Did you read any of the ITR?

Quoting from a low share value with misleading assumptions if your right to do. However, you could also argue thats it’s an attractive entry price. My right to respond.

Not a ramp, just a more balanced option. Reminding this BB that doing research is more important than reading FUD .

Nothing is certain and we all have our own risk/reward . Part of mine is to actually read the ITR. What I read of the risk is outweighed by the reward.

One thing is certain:

Mou-3 will go ahead

Snowcap-3 will go ahead

So the question is do you want to be holding at that time ?

Regards !

Https://shorturl.at/5HQF4

It will be interesting to hear what Paul Griffith has to say.

Well worth a listen to again

https://youtu.be/8grtIznZgTA?si=oRXnCkTqaLRD_J_v

From time to time I read what the trolls write, it’s always the same negativity. It’s all to easy to set up multiple accounts and in a concerted group effort, trash a share.

To fully understand a shares risk/reward you need to look at both sides.

The troll view is to insult a posters integrity, positive outcome are not in their remit. They will harp on about the past, without commenting on the available data and research. Blinkered vision does not help in an understanding of a shares risk.

Morocco the risk

History:

Failed drills and missed opportunities, along with countless fund raises. The market judges on results, not promises. this is where we currently sit.

Risk:

• A failed Mou-6 drill

• The risk of a lower share value.

• Risk of another placement.

• A distressed sale.

However as previously stated there are also rewards

Clues:

• The revised ITR

• Overcoming the mud issue in Mou-5

• PG’s refusal to accept a low offer

• The over pressurised gas in Mou-3

• A mass of data pointing to a potential decrease in risk

• Trinidad turning into a source of revenue

• No debt

• Ongoing negotiations (only one part stalled)

PG’s refusal to accept a low ball offer shows he values this asset. The sale is in the haggling process. A sale is very much on. The issue is what’s it worth now as opposed to after the drill.

For a share at such a low value rewards are staggering

Morocco- the reward:

1 WELL (MOU-6 choked) — 5 mmscf/d

• Cash: £2.37m/m = £28.4m/yr

• Bear 12x: 33.5p | Base 15x: 41.8p | Blue 18x: 50.2p

1 WELL (MOU-6 full) — 10 mmscf/d

• Cash: £4.74m/m = £56.9m/yr

• Bear 12x: 67.0p | Base 15x: 83.7p | Blue 18x: 100.4p

To help with your understanding, as to why we had to create a Telegram site, look at the replies and see if they are balanced and honest and show risk and reward.

I’ve only read your header as you are filtered

The Telegram group is running normally with a multitudes of information being processed in a civil and none troll-like manner.

To say otherwise is a lie.

To

Hi Donaldb

I asked Ai a few times if that was correct .

It was correct with the information it showed me but can often miss out things .

Ai is only as good as the information it decides to process.

What ever one is correct it is now down to Snowcap funding Mou-6.

Not the best of days but we do have Snowcap 3 to look forward to and once funding is sorted then we also have mou-6 to spud .

The reward is still the same as is Trinidad’s as listed in its ITR . We also have additional data via the new Morocco ITR

.

Do you think my interpretation is likely?

WHY NABI WENT QUIET – TRINIDAD

1. What NABI was supposed to do

• MSA with NABI Construction – NABI funds all drilling/workovers, Predator carried

• Programme launched 20 Jan 2026 with BON-18 spud in Bonasse

• Plan: 12 infill wells + 14 heavy workovers in 2026, +300-400 bopd

• January delivered: BON-17 + GY-211 workover → 367 bopd gross

2. What April 2026 actually paid Predator

• Net entitlement: 2,289 barrels (76 bopd)

• Net-back: $31.9/bbl after Heritage/Ministry cuts

• Cash: $73,019 (~£57.5k) for the month

• 85.4% from Heritage Incremental PSCs

3. The economics that killed the NABI programme

• CEG terms: Predator gets 30% of base, only 15% of enhanced (BON-17/GY-211 type wells)

• Heritage PSCs: First Tranche Oil at $16/bbl (vs $83.34 market) + extra royalties = ∼62% taken off top

• Even a successful NABI well leaves Predator with ∼$32 of an $83 barrel, and only 15% of the uplift

4. Why no NABI figures for months

• 11 June RNS: zero mention of BON-18 results, no new NABI rigs

• Instead Predator is moving its own tanks to do SC-2ST1 and Jacobin-1 itself

• Focus shifted to "Cory Moruga... direct Ministry Licence" – not Heritage PSCs

• NABI stopped because the Heritage wells are low-margin for both – NABI pays 100% cost, Predator gets squeezed

5. The trade-off with Predator drills

• With NABI: Predator paid nothing, but only kept 15-30% of barrels and $31.9 net-back

• With Predator-funded wells: Predator pays 100% of drill/workover cost, but keeps the full revenue share and avoids the $16 First Tranche – net-back jumps to the $50+ range

• That's why the company is now self-funding the re-entries – higher upfront cost, but full revenue capture instead of the thin NABI carry

No more whaffle Predator - time to prove up Trinidad and Morocco.

Hypothetically figures still show great promise.

There is a lot to look forward to with Predators worth but that looking forward too needs to happen ASAP.

PREDATOR – MOU-6 FUNDING FACTS

Past well costs

• MOU-1: £3.56m

• MOU-3: £2.0m (RNS: "fully fund MOU-3")

• MOU-4: ~£2m

• MOU-5: drilled 10 days, within budget; part of $24.6m total for MOU-1 to MOU-5

MOU-6 money raised

• Nov 2024: £300k – planning/long-leads

• May 2026: £520k – long-lead inventory

• Total in hand: £820k ($1.04m)

MOU-6 cost estimate (using MOU-3 pad)

• Drill + log: £1.5m – budgeted for MOU-6 "with a surface location at the MOU-3 well pad" (Feb 2025 RNS)

• Test: £0.4m

• Contingency: £0.2m

• Total: £2.1m ($2.67m)

Gap to find

• £1.28m ($1.63m)

SC-3 funding power @ $90.57

• Netback: $49.44/bbl

• NABI: $80k/mth

• 1,000 bopd Month 1: $1.56m

• 500 bopd after: $0.82m/mth

Time to fund MOU-6 from first oil

• At 1,000 bopd: 1.1 months

• At 500 bopd: 2.0 months

PREDATOR – THREE ITRs & WHY MOU-6

2019 SLR

• 474 BCF best, seismic only

• $831.7m NPV

2024 Scorpion

• 109.28 BCF P50 found

• 139.67 BCF near-field

• $108m NPV CNG

2026 MOU-6 (today's)

• TGB-6: 96.5 BCF 2C (72.4 net)

• A-Sand: 28.1 BCF 2C (21.1 net)

• Combined 2C: 124.6 BCF

• Strat upside: 664.5 BCF 2U (498.4 net)

• NPV10: $132m gross ($96m net), IRR 79%

• Capex $37.8m

Why MOU-6

• Fixes MOU-3 formation damage

• Proves 81km² strat trap with MDT

• 2026 says: "resources have not changed since 2024 – challenge is to extract gas"

• Not backwards: 2026 adds 664 BCF upside 2019 never mapped

How this is relevant to MOU-6

• MOU-6 is drilling next to MOU-3 – a twin well 50m away, same location, same sands

• It converts the 2024 discovery (109 BCF) into the 2026 booked 2C (124.6 BCF) by getting an un-damaged flow test that MOU-3 could not deliver

• It directly targets the two sands in the 2026 ITR – TGB-6 and A-Sand – at ∼925m in 12-14 days

• The 664.5 BCF strat upside is ONLY testable by MOU-6 using MDT to prove a gas column taller than the structural closure – 2026 ITR says this is the key step

• Economics jump from $108m (2024) to $132m (2026) because MOU-6 de-risks CNG development – low $37.8m capex, 79% IRR hinges on MOU-6 success

• 2019 counted 474 BCF on maps; MOU-6 is how PRD gets back to that scale with real well data instead of seismic hope

Proven gas in MOU-3

• MOU-3 encountered overpressured gas at 339m TVD in the Ma sand – flowed gas to surface during drilling

• Logs showed 43m net pay across TGB-5/6, but overbalanced mud caused severe formation damage – no clean test possible

• That gas is why Scorpion booked 109 BCF in 2024 – it proves the trap works

• MOU-6 is a twin, drilled with underbalanced mud and MDT, to produce the rate MOU-3 could not

Why we chose this spot to drill MOU-6

• It is on the crest of the MOU-3 structure where MOU-3 proved overpressure and gas – not an exploration wildcat

• MOU-4 hit the edge of the same 177km² feature and missed; MOU-6 moves up-dip to where the 2019 CPR mapped the thickest sands

• 3D seismic shows the TGB-6 fan pinches out up-dip here, creating the 81km² stratigraphic trap – MOU-6 sits at the pinch-point to test it with MDT

• Existing MOU-3 pad and permits mean 12-14 day drill, lowest cost, fastest route to CNG cash flow

• MOU-6 uses the same pad as MOU-3: "with a surface location at the MOU-3 well pad"

Pad reuse impact

• Reusing the MOU-3 pad will reduce MOU-6 well cost to £1,500,000