What is a flowing Mou-3 worth ?11 Apr 2026 13:31
Mou-3 may well not produce. However should it flow this is an Ai projection on a possible revenue. These figure are what are publicly available and do not include the new ITR. What it does show is the value in our Morocco asset. The numbers for just the upper sands are staggering . Just one area in one well ! Iβd appreciate any feedback as to how accurate they are as the numbers are staggering.
MOROCCO MOU-3 PROJECT - BASED ON LAST PUBLIC ITR (26 JAN 2024)
Building blocks
β’ Licence: Guercif, onshore Morocco, Predator 75% and operator
β’ Structure: Moulouya, mapped at 13.9 sq km
β’ Sands currently being tested: shallow overpressured 'A' Sand, plus Ma Sand and TGB-2 Sand
β’ Well status: MOU-3 drilled to 778.5m TVD, 9 5/8 inch casing set to de-risk deeper targets
β’ Gas quality from testing: 99.57% methane, confirmed suitable for CNG
β’ ITR resource base: 109.28 BCF P50 and 234.42 BCF P10 unrisked Contingent gas net to Predator
β’ ITR economics: CNG development at US$12 per mcf, NPV about US$108 million, IRR 138%
What the testing programme is
β’ Rigless intervention using Sandjet and conventional perforating guns to get past formation damage from over-balanced drilling
β’ Phase 1 used larger guns to perforate the 'A' Sand and confirm penetration of about 8 inches of damage
β’ Phase 2 aims to perforate up to three separate intervals in MOU-3, acquire pressure data, and establish sustainable flow rates
β’ Company guidance for the Moulouya structure test: potential 10 to 20 million cubic feet per day if sands clean up.
WHAT THAT IS WORTH PER MONTH AND PER YEAR
All figures use the ITR price assumption of US$12 per mcf and are gross sales at the wellhead, before royalty, opex, capex and tax. Net to Predator is shown at 75% licence interest.
At 10 million cubic feet per day (low end of test target)
β’ Gross per day: $120,000
β’ Gross per month (30 days): $3,600,000
β’ Gross per year (365 days): $43,800,000
β’ Net to Predator 75% per day: $90,000
β’ Net to Predator per month: $2,700,000
β’ Net to Predator per year: $32,850,000
At 20 million cubic feet per day (high end of test target)
β’ Gross per day: $240,000
β’ Gross per month (30 days): $7,200,000
β’ Gross per year (365 days): $87,600,000
β’ Net to Predator 75% per day: $180,000
β’ Net to Predator per month: $5,400,000
β’ Net to Predator per year: $65,700,000
Lifetime resource context from the ITR
β’ P50 109.28 BCF at $12 per mcf equals about $1.31 billion gross lifetime sales
β’ Net to Predator 75% equals about $983 million gross, before all costs
β’ The published NPV of about $108 million is the after-capex, after-opex, discounted value of that resource, not the gross sales number above.
This is why Iβm invested. The sands hold a massive reward.
Itβs the drilling issues that have held back the development and profit.
The Ai figures give you a general idea of the potential of a successful Mou-6.
Ai generated and not investment advice.