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Well, just to remind them. Lft test due in the next few weeks. On fair value that should add £120m onto the companies value taking us to £5 based on our competitors even without significant additional contracts for PCR. The next generation LFT test in q3, real game changer. Any significant PCR orders before then and/or resolution of the dispute. MUCH more potential upside than downside. Nothing is guaranteed, but the competition mostly have to get product to market yet. We are working on NEXT generation.
Well Crl, you had a ticklist of 10 mentions about the company. If on my ticklist of 10 items there were only 2 positives, what can I say? To anyone that thinks that a company which has gone from next to nothing to £280m a year in no time is all bad, well.....
Chris, they had the capacity to fulfil so any lack of meeting the agreement would have come down to pricing. They wanted the sales, and definitely the second contract. It was in everyone's interest.
SteveV, I think that will change according to the stats. Even if it doesn't, then that won't change what's already been sold hence no bearing on the dispute. Should the situation get worse and they don't order more, good luck UK gov in the enquiry.
In my opinion, that is why the accounts have been delayed. Either dispute will be sorted by end of June or the full disclosure being made. I will put it out there, to anyone that has a rational reason why there won't be more positives than negatives to any outcome of the dispute please put it out there before there is more white noise. I have put my worst case scenario, please discuss. That's what the site is for.
Many thanks Chris. You have reminded me that rational debate is still possible on this site. We sometimes have what seem like opposing views, but even if they are contrary to each other seemingly at times as long as the best interest of the company is at heart they can be taken seriously. Others maybe not so. You don't have to be positive all the time, just can't be taken seriously if persistently negative.
Yes, the wording is such that there could be a significant UPSIDE to any outcome. If minimal contract wasn't taken up because of DHSC then it could have a material impact on q4 and q1 in a GOOD way. Another potential upside. Again potential, we will find out. That's why the market hesitates, but more potential upside than downside.
Porky, agreed. Now DHSC are stripped out of the share price people forget we have the right to sell DIRECTLY to the NHS framework. As such, national politics get taken out of the equation. We have products finding the Indian variant, cheap LFTs don't unless having a high viral content. We can find those people spreading the disease. Explain to the voters ehy you WOULDN'T buy from us. Its a political no brainer.
Chris, the problem I would have with that is why then would q4 and q1 figures be in dispute and why would Novacyt not fulfil the order? The figures couldn't then be disputed downwards, only the fulfillment of the initial order and therefore the continuation onto the 2nd order. To me it looks like they didn't continue to the 2nd stage due to pricing.
In my view the tests were delivered over the 14 weeks period and DHSC accepted delivery of these items which are WHO approved, therefore the tests work. Therefore the issue has to be over pricing. The uk government is known to put into contracts the prices paid are the same as those cheapest prices paid by any international customer to a uk supplier. Primer Design being a UK supplier. Should they have accepted cheaper prices, say for a WHO contract, then the UK government MAY have a case. HOWEVER, upholding this clause would be in conflict to any moral obligation that the company has undertaken by supplying goods for the greater good rather than shear profits therefore would look EXTREMELY bad on the UK government. In my view it's a win win and GM can be justified. Lack of disclosure would be due to legally binding agreements. Again, just my opinion. I can't see how else it could affect q4 and q1 figures?
I just hope it doesn't come down to that. If the fundamentals change in the way that I hope that they will in the next few weeks then £10 a share won't be so expensive. It's all about timing, and we all continue to reevaluate as situations change. I would take £10 right now, in 5 weeks time if all goes to plan then not a chance. We will see. I would love for this company to thrive independently.
One of the things that is not right could end up to be a savings grace for many investors, depending on what price they invested at. There is no way the larger companies will not be seeing this as a takeover target. Let's not forget that this company comes under French law and as such they would have to pay the highest price per share that they have paid in the last 12 months when a bid is made. At some point they would have paid CONSIDERABLY more than present price so their timing would have to be just right. If an offer were to be made it depends at what point they paid what price. The longer the year goes on the more likely it is to happen. Their cards won't be played before then IMO. UK government can't even override it anymore by saying that Primer Design is a UK concern after losing the contract from DHSC. We have control of our own destiny. This is an international company with international aspirations whether independent or otherwise.
Zmar, I have done the same. Playing the long game. Let's not forget GMs £500k investment. He is presently down £300k also. He isn't so rich that this doesn't hurt him also so it's in his interest for the share price to recover, as with the future plans of mid cap status. This isn't the smoothest of journeys admittedly but I am confident of getting to the destination.
So, most the Indian variant cases at present are in the North West and presently spread by youngsters. That trial gig was based where? I wonder if their families would have agreed to it if they had the available information. Let's hope it's not too much too fast.