Member Info for M20ASH

Hi Twogoals, I posted a link to the AGM meeting circular with all the motions to be voted on last week. It can be found on the website under Investors/Documents & Circulars.
Cheers, Ash

Hi John, well I'm still optimistic for Tavsan to be in production early 2022 so only 18 months and there's not much more I can add on where I see output with current capacity. I had a look through the Ozaltin website - impressive stuff, especially the tomatoes! I hadn't picked up on them at all in my research because, although the founder (now deceased) was born in Artvin province, they seem to have no presence there in terms of construction projects. Local clout must refer to Turkey as a whole, which they clearly have.
I think a lot of investors were hoping for improved terms given the advances made in the period since the MOU was announced and the increasing POG, but c'est la vie.
Hopefully, the mechanics for the special dividend are being worked on as that will be a nice bonus for everyone. I assume that work will also have been passed across to the new accountants to complete.
It will also be interesting to see, once the deal is complete, how quickly things move forwards, particularly Salinbas, Ardala and Hizarliyayla and whether a more aggressive drilling approach unearths those bonanza grades we have all been hoping for. Still reasons to be cheerful!
Cheers, Ash

Agreed, but they are also giving up over 50% of their current share in the JV, which is already priced in. I guess we need to wait and see where the market places the premium.
Cheers, Ash

Yes, there should be incremental value, but why an additional 2.5p right now?

I see. So they're not selling anything then? No chance that any value might already be priced in then?

According to who?

Battle royal today, but lid off now hopefully!
Cheers, Ash

Not surprising. it was always going to be a tall order for the new auditors being appointed post year-end and with the additional requirements for the first year and the restrictions on travel.
Cheers, Ash

HI VanVan, I think everyone should relax a little. If you track back through the RNS releases on due diligence update, it seems more likely that there will be an update tomorrow indicating an extension. Whether the market likes this is another matter, but if the prospective partner had decided to pull out, I am sure we would know by now and as you say, there is no rush for the AAU management team to get the deal done by tomorrow, if it requires a little more time.
Cheers, Ash

Reference the earlier question - why would Cassidy Gold sell so cheap. Maybe there is an answer in this article..
https://vancouversun.com/business/energy/kamloops-based-mining-company-cassidy-gold-to-close
David Crichton-Watt, who is chairman of Cassidy Gold, is also a founder and part-owner of Asian Investment Management Services (AIMS), based in Malaysia, who recently put together the financing for Goldstone Resources (GRL) leading to the recent rise in sp.
If they had already pumped in $30m and the company then de-listed putting the mine on care & maintenance, I expect they are highly delighted with the HUM deal.
Cheers, Ash

Very nice!

Hi all, nice to see this rise, but wondered if anyone has any thoughts on when AIMS might exercise some or all of the 120m warrants at 3p. I suppose they might want to wait until the loan facility has been drawn down in full to get the full benefit on the basis that the extra funding might negate the need to draw the full facility or maybe the company will need both. I can't see whether the warrants are conditional on some or all of the loan facility being drawn down. Read the bit about the takeover code, if they draw exercise the full 120m. Also cannot see what restrictions there are on future sale of shares, although the fund owners do seem to be more interested in long term gains. I am aware David Crichton-Watt will also have an 10% interest in HUM, if the acquisition of the Kouroussa project goes through.
Any help would be appreciated.
Cheers, Ash

https://hummingbirdresources.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/c116556_CCL_High_interactive.pdf

Posted on the website under Investors and then Documents and Circulars
Cheers, Ash

You’re welcome, it wasn’t meant to be advice as such. I think you have to follow you’re own course. It sometimes depends on your personal timelines. It’s not always wise to follow the momentum. DYOR is something that’s chucked around on these boards. It’s meaningless until you actually do it yourself and make your own mind up. Far better to have the courage of your own convictions and spot a value gap, go for it and take some profit or hold on when you believe there is more juice in the tank.
Re-align when you think a share has exhausted it’s potential for the time being and you have spotted another opportunity. You can always go back. Ok, you may have missed a gap up, but if you’ve made good money meanwhile, what have you lost.
Just don’t get spiked and sit on a loss waiting for the sp to come back. It could take years.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Mostyn, no the Betts family don’t so it’s a threat. Many here have highlighted this and suggested that a dividend policy and a resulting increase in sp would help to ward off this threat.
Many here, including myself, see a greater potential, but there are also LTH, who would be glad to get their cash back at a profit & re-invest elsewhere and I feel like I’m trying to teach my gran to suck eggs as I write. I’m sure you know.
Fingers crossed, it doesn’t happen.
P.S. Agree with SGD27 on the 500k trade. Given the timing and spread it should have been a sell, but there’s always a buyer somewhere. Maybe an MM increasing their float. They’ll be looking to sell back at a profit. Maybe a blue day tomorrow?
Not that we should really worry about specific trades. It’s where the sp may be heading that’s important.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Joe, I have given up on sp predictions for now. There’s so much here that is in the pipeline, but I now place more value on what is happening now and where I see that value in the future. Perhaps I don’t see the value gap in the next 12 months whilst AAU moves to the next level, whilst there are other opportunities. Happy to remain invested, but with a slightly longer term view than, say, 6-9 months ago.
They say never fall in love with a share and sometimes it’s good to take some profit. Both are valid points of view and I’ve just re-considered how I can achieve my 2-3 year targets. I was 100% invested here after the SXX debacle (cost me a bit, but not as much as some) and I’ve just re-aligned my portfolio for a bit more balance.
No problem with anyone who is happy to hold here for the rewards to come. If you have a longer time-frame than me it makes perfect sense. I just try to add a bit of balance and share some knowledge. Hopefully it helps inform and if it’s perceived as slightly negative, then so be it. Would it help, if I tried to put a positive spin on everything? I doubt it.
Cheers, Ash

I'm sure you'll get several opinions. I just look for any value gap and potential upside within a couple of years of increasing production in the current gold price climate. Why not run with both, if that makes you more comfortable. I'm sure they will both be winners in the medium term.
Cheers, Ash

Thanks Stretchum, fully invested now, but always on the lookout for opportunities.
Cheers, Ash

Hi all, bought in lunchtime today - my late reported buy of 250k at 4.27p - good timing I hope.
Reason for doing so was the write up doing the rounds, which led to some research at the weekend. First impression of the BoD is good, especially Emma Priestley - seems very genuine. As always, more comms & PR would be better.
Agree that the AIMS funding, etc is relatively expensive, but manageable and my take is it’s only expensive, if it’s actually needed. I assume the alternative would be dilution for shareholders so better to get this show on the road, as it were.
Initial production is promising, but given the existing resource and potential, POG, etc, this seems a great play at current MC.
Hopefully, over the next 2 years or so...
Cheers, Ash

Hi Joe, are you opening a book and laying odds! Something to pass the time.
Got to thinking about the deal and how various factors might give rise to a delay - whilst Ariana is able to continue with production, a construction company can face various issues during a pandemic, if they are restricted on how they continue projects, especially if, like many Turkish construction companies, a lot of their contracts are overseas. Govt support is nowhere near what it’s like in the U.K. but the rules imposed are likely to have increased their financial burden.
It also crossed my mind that the depreciation of the Lira may or may not have affected the original price of the deal.
Latest news suggests that the virus is less under control in Turkey than it was.
Having said all that, the objective presumably remains the same so it seems reasonable to think that it will still go ahead and there should be no reason to sell, if there is a further delay, unless you have an opportunity to make a quick buck elsewhere?
Cheers, Ash