Member Info for M20ASH

Hi RD2U, I’m fine thanks, just overloaded with work trying to fulfill 2 roles. 12 hour days plus weekends! First day off today since Easter. Not much fun tbh.
Also worried about what’s happening in the wider world. Sat out the crash and pretty much back to where I was before it started, if not a little ahead, but I’m cutting back on equity & holding a lot more cash now should markets turn down again. Still invested here, but not expecting any strong upward movement for a little while, especially if there’s bad news as we attempt to come out of lockdown.
Hope you’re well and enjoying the weather.
Cheers, Ash

Hi GA, I was a little frustrated too with the fact that their website is not very up to date and a lack of information generally when trying to ascertain any connections to a potential third party. It is obvious though that Proccea are specialists in the construction and running of mines.
With regard to the third party, I believe they are already active in the region and have complementary skill sets and better connections that will allow potential mine development issues to be overcome that Proccea may not have. I shall say no more as this is purely speculation on my part.
Cheers, Ash

Hi John, all I know on EUA is that they've been suspended for quite a while pending clarification on their relationship with CITIC bank and in the interim their nomad WH Ireland have resigned giving 30 days notice, which expired today. They will, therefore remain suspended until the appointment of a new nomad and if they fail to achieve that within the next 30 days, they will be required to de-list.
Cheers, Ash

HI GA, depends of course where you might be looking to fly from, but I can recommend flying from Heathrow or Gatwick into Istanbul for a couple of nights, then an internal flight to Cappadocia for a few nights taking in an early morning balloon flight over the Fairy Chimneys, back to Istanbul again before a further internal flight and hitting the coast, either on the Aegean or the Med where you can probably get a direct flight back closer to home. If you're on the Aegean coast anywhere near Izmir, then you'll be within driving distance of Red Rabbit should you want to arrange a visit. How does that sound? You just need to make sure which airport in Istanbul you're flying into and out of as there are two, which is no good when you arrive at one and find your flight's going out of the other one like we did a couple of years ago!!
Cheers, Ash

Hi RD2U, I wouldn't be too disappointed with the reaction to the results. You have to accept that there are many investors with a different agenda to us so it's no surprise when they sell when the news drops and look for the next opportunity. C'est la vie.
As to whether AAU is a sentiment share, I have an affinity, having owned a property in Turkey for over 15 years, but it's not the be all and end all.
I will admit that I have had concerns over the proposed deal, but the production guidance and the results yesterday were enlightening. Clearly, in the short term AAU will be operating at a much lower level of output, which makes the proposed deal more attractive. Whether that continues to be the case remains to be seen with the potential, but you can understand why the Board have considered this deal, knowing what lies ahead and the costs to bring other projects to fruition.
Anyway, glad to hear you are enjoying the sunshine. Take good care.
Cheers, Ash

Hi VanVan, agree that there may be other priorities. My concern in my previous post was that my research indicated there would need to be a further EIA before they would be permitted to increase capacity through a second ball mill and if that requires the full EIA process, including baseline studies, it would make sense to start that process sooner rather than later, even if the expenditure and commissioning takes place further down the line. Perhaps this needs some clarification?
Cheers, Ash

Hi CK, I did some research a little while back and discovered that Balikesir province, where the Red Rabbit venture operates has the highest proportion of wind turbines in the whole of Turkey to generate their electricity.
Every year when we go over to Turkey on holiday, we look out for the wind turbines overlooking Akbuk and Didim/Altinkum as it marks the end of our journey from Bodrum-Milas airport. The turbines are constantly working (apart from one who we call Chatty after the lazy brother of a friend of ours in Turkey), utilising the wind coming off the Aegean Sea and that gives me reasonable comfort that Ariana should have a plentiful supply of 'electrik' (sic). It's pretty cheap as well judging by our bills each year.
Unfortunately, our usual trip in May has had to be put back to September, but fingers crossed....
Cheers, Ash

Hi GB, love your positive attitude and agree wholeheartedly that HUM will come good. The AIM market seems to be more about dreamers chasing potential and quick gains rather than dull, boring actual results. Take EUA, SXX and SOLG to name a few. Totally unrealistic valuations, but they are what they are. Gave up on that game a long time ago apart from a little dabble in BMV recently. Sticking to gold producers who are undervalued with great potential like HUM and AAU these days or taking advantage of dips for established producers like HGM and AAZ. Fits with a 3-5 year plan.
Anyway, thanks for cheering me up on a relatively disappointing day. Enjoy your glass of wine.
Cheers, Ash

Hi R D 2 U, all good here thanks and hopefully the same for you. In answer to your question regarding the additional reserves added to the Red Rabbit mine plan, the Red Rabbit JV currently includes Kiziltepe, Tavsan, Kepez and Karakvak. sitting outside this are Salinbas, Kizilcukur and the relatively small discovery at Ivrindi.
So, the new JV arrangement will absorb Red Rabbit plus Salinbas leaving Kizilcukur and Ivrindi to be added at 3 x exploration costs plus any other discoveries that Ariana may make in the future and bring to the table.
On the technical side, we were just over 70% 14 day RSI yesterday and the sp had moved over the top bollinger band so maybe not too surprising that this morning's news led to a dip, but I feel that there is still strong support given the movement back up and with news of the new JV deal looming, the potential for further upward movement is definitely there. Last time I called it wrong and should have taken some profit at 3.5p as you were suggesting, but we live and learn!
Cheers, Ash

Hi VanVan, as Cornishknocker suggests, now the stockpile is building up nicely and with the potential to truck ore from satellite sites, it surely must be time to consider a second ball mill at Kiziltepe to increase throughput. My only concern would be whether there is a further EIA requirement to increase capacity and what the timeline would be?
With regard to news, we must be due an RNS soon to announce the original mine construction loan has been paid in full plus further news of the impending JV deal.
It would also be good to hear on progress at Tavsan with completion of baseline studies, permitting and possible finance for construction of the second mine.
Taken together, maybe not as muddy as some might think....you just have to be aware of what is in the pipeline.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Gambling Addict, it is out, but no RNS are currently showing up on LSE. Had to access the London Stock Exchange to view. Production of 5,129 oz. Record ore mined of 92,482 tonnes at 2.54 g/t, but only 53,480 tonnes milled at 3.22 g/t. So the limiting factor is not what they can get out of the ground, but the ability to process with a single ball mill. Stockpile now up to 150-60k tonnes.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Joe, yes still here and twice as ugly after several weeks of lock down! Must get out for more exercise! Hoping like you that we are attracting new investors who are seeing the future potential here.
Interesting that your thoughts are on Cyprus at this time. I have always felt that it would be a stand alone project for AAU rather than being swept into the proposed new JV arrangement, simply because it is outside Turkey and probably wouldn't fit with the new JV partner, although the resource may be similar, if my hunch is correct. Maybe there would be some benefits of synergy, even if there is no direct involvement? Hopefully, not long to wait now until all is revealed...
On the accounting front, I am still monitoring production and potential profit, although I probably need to revisit some of the numbers having researched the more detailed accounts of some other gold miners and how they report certain costs.
Anyway, I am looking forward to the next set of numbers. No point speculating too much at this late stage as news could arrive as soon as tomorrow. Suffice to say, I expect a drop on Q4 2019 production and sales, but perhaps not as much as production guidance for 2020 suggests. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts.
Cheers, Ash

Re getting paid in TL and converting to USD, just checked how the movement of the POG in both currencies compares to the movement in the USD v TL FX rate since the peak in 2012. Not a lot in it TBH so I don't think AAU lose out too much by being paid in TL and then converting to USD other than possible losses on the spread, but I know that the spread on FX in Turkey is relatively small compared to say the UK simply because holding foreign currency such as sterling or USD is preferable because of the ongoing depreciation of the TL. To counter this, the Turkish Govt deposit rates and subsequent bank deposit rates are significantly higher for TL, but most of the time this doesn't offset the depreciation losses. Anyway, it doesn't seem to have adversely affected AAU so far!
Cheers, Ash

Hi Joe, I like it! Roll on next Easter. I'm starting to feel like a San Francisco '49er in the middle of a gold rush. just hope there are no earthquakes to go with it!
Cheers, Ash

With gold now over $1700 and seemingly heading north and an AISC of $850 or maybe below and production of c. 125-130K oz, HUM will surely be generating annual cash in excess of it's current market cap? Add some further value for Dugbe, potential of CORA with or without increasing the current shareholding and an increased LOM resulting from exploration this year and it would seem the sp can only go in one direction - exponentially? I will be looking to add as much as I can whilst prices are this low.
Cheers, Ash

Hi CK, would I be right in thinking then that with 120k tonnes at 4g/t, there is over 15k oz of gold in the stockpile to add to the 18k oz production guidance, which will mean output and sales won't drop nearly as much as the production guidance suggests?
Thanks, Ash

Showing as sells on NEX

Looks like I bought back in the nick of time. Not showing, but two buys of £173k at 2.9p should show up somewhere. Happy days.
Cheers, Ash

Morning all, not all sells are bad news - 2 sells of 171k were mine. Just moving some money around to use up most of my wife's remaining ISA allowance for this tax year and use up some CGT allowance at the same time.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Willowman, yes it is! All sorted. Thank you so much. Cheers, Ash