Member Info for M20ASH

Just checked on the laptop as well. If you're logged out, you can see all threads, but cannot post so you have to log back in to post and then log out again to view all posts. Exactly like ADVFN and a bit rubbish really. Not sure what to suggest other than to stick to the one thread?
Cheers, Ash

Evening all, haven’t checked it out yet on the laptop, but on my phone I’m now getting a view of several threads rather than just one view of all the threads. A bit like ADFVN? Not sure as I rarely log in there so I get to see the main thread.
If it’s a case of not being able to see all threads here, would it make sense to have just one and continue to post on it?
Or if I’m not understanding how this now works, would appreciate some insight.
Cheers, Ash

Evening all, not sure I understand this evening’s debate. Ok, there’s always been a clash between some posters on here, but can we just focus on AAU & cut the crap?
Anyway, some stats (haven’t verified these, but...)
2,765 deaths from Corona Virus this year
75,111 deaths from seasonal flu this year
13,681 deaths from hunger today
The reality is that the fundamentals have not changed. Sp has dropped. Ok, so what. If you sold and are looking to buy back in, well done at the right price.
Bottom line is that the current sell off has driven share prices down, but the sp shoulld bounce back.
Cheers, ash

Hi Benjie, all in my previous posts, but also highly speculative and perhaps now is probably not the time for further speculation. Hopefully, all will be revealed in the next few weeks.
Cheers, Ash

Hi dropinmonkey, not sure why VAT, hedges should be a surprise re SHG. Until the forward trades are settled, they will have to mark to market and provision for the difference between the spot price and the contracted sell price. All has been clear from published accounts and until they have the cash to settle the contracts, any increase in POG will increase the provision & cash liability - now higher than it was at 31st December.
The VAT is another issue. Suspect that repayments have been linked to Tanzanian investment incentives on VAT recovery for mine development costs and the underlying issues have not been resolved I.e. no recovery and probably no offset against CT.
No bearing on HUM. This week’s news has obviously impacted the sp, but the underlying problem is the media-generated panic over the Corona Virus. Whilst thousands are dying every day from the flu, etc, CV is making the headlines.
Hopefully, this will all settle down & normality will return.
Cheers, Ash

Hi VanVan, only 2 options to return capital to shareholders as far as I know. Dividend or buyback of shares. Given MDV’s strategy of moving shares into a pension, the previously announced special dividend seems the more likely. Just needs the share premium account to be cancelled either by a Court Order or, assuming they have the necessary permissions, 75% shareholder approval to create the distributable reserves to cover the dividend payment.
As to an ongoing dividend policy, I have no idea whether that’s likely. Maybe a mixture of dividends from future profits plus acquisition of exploration & development projects would appeal to most shareholders.
Cheers, Ash

Hi John, I have felt for a while that the proposed deal is probably giving away too much of RR and reducing exposure to the increasing POG, but the research I did recently leads me to think that there is a strong possibility that developing Salinbas without the new partner might not happen.
I guess it’s all about striking the right balance in order to grow AAU in the long run.
Along with everyone else, I have formulated a strategy to achieve my own goals over the next 3-5 years. My investment in AAU may vary in that time, but if all comes to fruition, I will certainly be invested here for the long term and on that basis will be supporting the proposed deal.
Cheers, Ash

Hi RD2U, good to hear from you. Hope you’re enjoying today. I’m not an expert in the dark arts, as you put it, but happy to hold and wait when the RSI is below 80%. I also look at how the sp is moving between the bollingers. AAU has been in the upper half during the recent rise and tends to pull back quickly when it moves over the top band. That’s it for my TA. Still prefer the fundamentals and will base my long term decisions purely on those.
Cheers, Ash

Hi John, perhaps the first indication that lower grades from Arzu North will mean higher operating costs per oz, but this will be more than outweighed by the increase in POG as we move forwards.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Wildfire, understood and yes, I agree. Maybe the integrity of the BoD here and the information we receive means there is less scope for speculation compared to other shares. Not unhappy with that.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Wildfire, I think you’ll that there’s some pretty good radar here. I think a few of us expected around $45m thanks to Cornishknocker’s average selling prices provided last month.
Looking forward to the full year results now.
Cheers, Ash

Hi VanVan, great surprise to wake up to this morning. Wasn’t expecting the quarterlies today. Big smile on my face. Will be celebrating in the tapas bars in Benidorm old town tonight. Hangover tomorrow!
Cheers, Ash

Maybe worth adding that the RSI is currently only 68% so there would seem to be plenty of upside here within the current upward trend and further news must be due shortly. My average here is not as low as some - around 1.75 so 3.5 would be a major milestone for me, but still think there's scope beyond that in the short term.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Willowman, not a bad thing though to be invested in a share where you can pretty much relax knowing where it is ultimately heading. Far easier on the nerves than chasing the short-term multi-baggers, like the get rich quick gamblers, where you hope to get in early, but then don't know whether to sell, hold or buy more and if you time it wrong and get spiked...
I know where I'd rather be invested. Value will out in the end.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Tommo, can’t disagree with your buy here or your investment in AAU or CEY. Maybe KEFI is more of a watch & wait now it is progressing towards mine construction. Once it gets there, then Yr 1 production might be a good time to buy.
Apologies all for the off-topic conversation, but interesting to compare notes.
Firmly believe that HUM will have a fantastic year & this is only the start.
Cheers, Ash

Hi JC, this share is my punt on the current strength of gold. Not sure that MTR would be looking to invest in a single play, which BMV currently is, given the issues in the Philippines, but no reason why the BoD here cannot raise the necessary capital to match SAU & get this project off the ground (or underground).
Cheers, Ash

Should have said firm believers in AAU, but also invested in HUM.

Hi TC, don’t be so hasty to knock HUM. There’s a few here who are firm believers in the AAU story, but HUM is a more leveraged play on POG, after all it’s set backs last year and some poor management decisions in the past, it is now potentially set to produce up to 130k oz over the next 5 years with further resource to be defined. Profit for 2020 will be exponential compared to 2019, if they can achieve this potential.
Apologies to all for continuing the off topic, but maybe worth a second look, if you’re looking to add to your portfolio.
I’m more than comfortable with HUM as a complement to my investment in AAU.
Cheers, Ash

I can remember selling out here well over 5 years ago - 5-6p range having been up to 10-12p. Since then it's just drifted lower and lower. Would be nice for shareholders still here, if it were to make a recovery, but I think the optimism is misplaced and I very much doubt they'll ever get anything out of the ground, but good luck anyway.
Cheers, Ash

Surprised no one here noticed this last week. Flagged up on the Advfn board. Might explain the increasing interest. Also mention that Aiden Bishop is in S Korea at the moment. BMV news of funding imminent?
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200211/pdf/44dzn05sbp5z1w.pdf
Cheers, Ash