Member Info for M20ASH

Hi Mac, I am reasonably optimistic that the JV will generate a post-tax profit of c. £12m with a 50% share to Ariana. Less the holding company costs, I'm hoping it will result in a profit for the year in the range of £4-4.5m, double last year, and I expect the sp to rise on this basis, if it has not already reached the right level.
Lots of other factors - Panmure Gordon guidance, share tipsters plus the prospect of the new JV deal with $30m in cash and then a one-off special dividend of up to $5m may well see the sp push considerably higher.
After that, it may settle back down a bit - all depends on the gold price, how the market views the lower profit with the reduced JV share of 23.5% and reduced sales as grades settle lower. Options to increase milling capacity and bring in production from satellites will help and hopefully, increasing value will be attached over the next 18 months as Tavsan comes on stream by late 2021 and faster progress is made at Salinbas - there is always a possibility of finding those bonanza grades that were found at Hod Maden, which is not so far away.
Cheers, Ash

I haven't shared this for a while, but I have kept it updated and have now got over my brain freeze. I have updated it to incorporate a conversion from wet to dry ore at 96% i.e. a 4% water loss as my ore stockpile tonnage was originally too high. To balance this I have applied this opposite to the grade so I end up with the same contained gold ounces.
The end result is an ore stockpile of over 130,000 tonnes at a grade of 2.78 g/t giving 11,700 oz of contained gold, which at a recovery rate of 93% would convert to output/sales of 10,881 oz.
On the milling page, I have also estimated there is approximately 1,100 oz in process and a further 5,400 oz in tailings.
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Art3fOvTbZE8tDRNzj1TTdGiSUU_?e=3ltTiL
The question for me is that given the ability to mine more ore, which will continue to build the stockpile (c. 2,000 oz in the last quarter) and a further drop in output at these lower grades, when is consideration going to be given to increasing the milling capacity. Hopefully, once the deal goes through and Kizilcukur can be sold into the new JV, the increased potential throughput from satellites will justify the expense of a second ball mill.
Cheers, Ash

Scrap that - had a brain freeze! Of course it's c. 54,000 tonnes per quarter. Need more coffee.
Cheers, Ash

Quick question - in the RNS, Kerim stated that they had now built up a stockpile over over 130,000 tonnes of ore, which would be sufficient to cover at least 8 months mill feed. Surely this cannot be correct if they have been feeding c. 54,000 tonnes per month into the mill? Do you think he meant at least 8 months of gold output?
Cheers, Ash

Hi CK, thank you, that's really helpful in my understanding a bit more. Essentially, you are saying that by looking at quarter 3 last year with similar movements and ore processing at a cash cost of $540 per oz, I can use this as a basis for estimating a cash cost per oz for quarter 1 this year. Presumably, I would have to apply this not only to the gold produced, but also the increase in contained gold within the stockpile? Complicated by the fact that this latter element has mining costs incurred, but not processing? I think I'll just wait for the results!
Cheers, Ash

Hi CK, I agree they should be out based on last year's release. The figure I am most interested in, given we already know output, is the operating cash costs - what can we expect with the increased ore volumes and lower grades?
Cheers, Ash

A bit quiet on here today given that the sp has climbed rather nicely above 4p. Any thoughts on what we might be expecting by way of news next week?
Cheers, Ash

Hi Joe, knowing my luck, it will be a disaster somewhere down the line and the Bentley will be a clapped out Renault - good enough for pottering around France, but not much else!
Cheers, Ash

Evening everyone, the things I like about being invested in AAU and this board are many. Not worried about the sp not shooting up or lots of new investors - having a dabble in AVCT and that BB is now unreadable, unless you filter just to read the sensible informative posts.
Also, not worried about the fact that we don’t have a great deal of institutional investors right now. Experience with HUM suggests that when the sp rises above a certain level, fund managerS look to take profit and balance their portfolio within pre-set parameters by selling, which acts as a damper on sp increases, albeit temporarily.
So, anyway, let’s hope we continue to benefit from the wisdom of all posters here and Ariana continues it’s upward trajectory.
Cheers, Ash

Hi MAJW, my understanding is that The Govt of Mali have a 20% minority share (but have yet to pay for 10%) so would be entitled to 20% of the net profit.
Cheers, Ash

Hi VanVan, "They do not have current mining interests" - not who I thought it might be in that case. Oh well! Back to the drawing board!
Cheers, Ash

Hi Paul, I seem to recall you mentioned THR previously and I said I remembered them when the shares were around 1p as opposed to 0.00000001p or whatever the equivalent is now. I don't disagree that there are probably some good prospects in Oz, but THR doesn't strike me as one of them.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Paul, I certainly hope that will not be the case. The figures provided by Moneymaker are interesting, but if you take into account the recovery rates, the actual economically mineable ore plus costs of extraction and processing, the value to AAU will be considerably lower. On it's own, it may not have been of interest, but with the gold potential it has merits and may well add to the sp once the market knows more or thinks it does...
However, there is much still to do in Turkey for the Ariana and JV teams to further define the existing resource and acquire and develop additional resource to increase the value of the JV and personally, I would like to hear more of this, if and when the new JV is up and running.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Willowman, no need to apologise, it's all about sharing information. I have no direct experience of Harry Adams, but I am well aware that the hackles go up for a lot of shareholders here and elsewhere at the mention of his name. I see you referenced his antics being repeated at Kefi and thanks to the views on here, I have steered clear and avoided the dilution you speak.
It would be a shame to sell up on that basis, but everyone has to consider their own level of risk. I am of the view that as long as Cyprus remains a bit of a side show to developing the existing and future assets in Turkey, then it cannot do too much harm, but should it become a distraction or start to become more of the focus, then it may be time to move on.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Willowman, you are correct that Atalaya was once EMED and Eastern Mediterranean Minerals was a subsidiary. 90% was brought back by Samerang, a company owned by Harry Adams for 100,000 euros with Atalaya retaining 10% or alternatively, an NSR and Eastern Mediterranean Minerals was then renamed Venus Minerals (Cyprus) Limited on 9 October last year.
https://opencorporates.com/companies/cy/HE98178
I believe some of the funds paid to Venus Minerals Limited, the UK company set up for the JV, have been used to purchase the remaining 10% and the rest will have gone in Harry Adams back pocket.
It's all available online through a bit of google searching and backed up by Atalya Mining's published financial reports.
Cheers, Ash

Hi RD2U, had to look that up to check my understanding. Very kind and flattering! I'd heard of it in relation to the theatre - may have to start signing myself off as Larry or Johnny - and it brought back memories of the great Spitting Image skits back in the eighties.
On a serious note, I continue to hold AAU and HUM (lots of flack for Dan Betts on the BB, but the numbers this year should be phenomenal in relation to current market cap). With regard to bio science, I confess I got a bit envious of so many making great money on the back of COVID-19 testing, etc so I've put some into AVCT and BVC - they may not have first-mover advantage, but it's a big potential market and the additional revenue they may generate will allow them to continue to focus on their underlying technology and projects. That's all I'm going to say - you pays your money and takes your chance!
Sorry for the off-topic everyone.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Moneymaker, I think they have stated that for copper they expect recovery of up to 75% of what is economically mineable, which will be defined by further drilling and a JORC resource estimate. Hopefully, the exploration process will define how much gold there is on top.
Still seems cheap and obviously non-core for Atalaya with their focus on the 2 copper projects in Spain, which must be why they let it go for so little. Harry Adams is doing quite well out of this I think!
Cheers, Ash

Morning, interesting RNS this morning announcing first earn-in to Venus Minerals by spending 920,000 euros to earn 9.24% and that Venus Minerals (Cyprus) Limited is now 100% owned by Venus Minerals Limited, the JV company. I looked for an RNS from Atalaya Mining for confirmation (nothing found), but I suspect that means that some of the money has been used to acquire the remaining 10% of Venus Minerals (Cyprus) Limted (formerly Eastern Mediterranean Minerals (Cyprus) Limited) from Atalaya Mining and the remainder has gone to Harry Adams' company Samerang that bought the other 90% from Atalaya for only 100,000 euros - see my previous posts for the full history.
Unlikely that much has been spent on further exploration as yet as I noted yesterday that Chesterfield Resources announced they had just been able to resume operations in Cyprus.
Cheers, Ash

Hi MAJW, good to hear you're on board. Also, thanks to Paul1Deano for recommending my posts over the last year since I upped my investment here. AAU has been a great investment in that time as it has gone from just below 2p to the current share price with the odd hiccup along the way and there is no doubt more to come for the patient investor.
There has been a great deal of debate over the proposed deal and I am somewhere in the middle having originally identified a clear path to sp growth over the next 2-3 years through development of a mine at Tavsan to complement the current mine at Kiziltepe and now recognise that the short term may not be as profitable for AAU with a reduced 23.5% share in the JV to add to expected reduced margins as production costs inevitably rise to maintain output at lower grades.
However, this is balanced by the potential of $30m in the bank to allow acquisition and exploration of new prospects, a possible special dividend to reward long-term shareholders and bringing forward the development of Salinbas, which could potentially result in three mines operating together in 5 years with a combined output in the region of 100k oz per annum.
Hopefully, that is a reasonable synopsis of the current state of play and gives you a reasonable basis on which to do some more research and consider investing further as time evolves.
More than happy to answer questions on accounting issues and other areas I have researched, but I am certainly no expert on mining!
Cheers, Ash

Hi CK, yes they did what they said they were going to do by improving the measured and indicated contained resource, but I had hoped for a bit more than an additional 300 oz of contained gold and a 100k oz drop in the amount of silver from the previous resource estimate. Having said that, I probably don't know enough. Presumably it will assist in how they mine the resource?
Cheers, Ash