Member Info for M20ASH

Hi RD2U, I have to admit I was a bit hazy when I wrote that piece last night after a frustrating day dealing with endless demands from auditors and several beers to drown my sorrows.
I suppose my sceptism comes from studying economics and accountancy and having a more logical approach. If you think of it in simple terms, the price you are prepared to pay for anything would logically be what you perceive it to be worth. However, we don’t buy shares because we want to own them per se. They have no value other than how little we can buy them for and how much more we can sell them for. For those that want a quick return on their investment so they can buy some more cheap stock and sell on at a profit again in order to make a living i.e a trader, the charts are key.
For those that perceive that the intrinsic worth of a business or commodity is under-priced and are prepared to hold the shares until that value is realised have very little need for charts. They just need to ensure that the reason why they invested and whether that value will still be achieved remains in place.
If the latter seems a little dull and you don’t see yourself as the next Warren Buffet, a mixture of the two can be a lot more fun, provided you get it right.....
Cheers, Ash
P.S. I really should get out more on a Friday night. Times have changed!!

Hi RD2U, my problem is I get a hazy when it comes to Bollinger and bollingers. I’ve always thought that charting is like a self-fulfilling prophecy devised by someone very clever with a pack of crayons, who thought if I do this, then the sheep will eventually follow. No basis in reality, but it has become so well established now that the shepherds no longer need sheep dogs to herd the sheep.
However, drop a spanking RNS into the mix and you have to get the crayons out again! Personally, I prefer something a bit more fundamental, but have come to learn that it’s not always wise to ignore which way the flock is heading.
On that note, I would add that I sold my ECR first thing Monday, added some here and some in GRL. As Meatloaf sang, 2 out of 3 ain’t bad. Down on the week on my HUM though. Maybe I should’ve followed the fluffy ones.
Cheers, Ash

Hi VanVan, would be nice, if it can break out of this 3.75-4.25p range that it's currently settled into, but I expect it'll require some positive news and some added interest to the current topping up from the bigger LTH's.
Cheers, Ash

Hi RD2U, keeping hold of the des res in Turkey for now - great country, great people & plenty of friends.
SW France will be a base for a more chilled out lifestyle and some travelling. If money allows, it would be good to have a destination place in Galicia or close to Faro.
In the meantime, will be keeping on eye on things. Barchart is useful, but there is no bible for investing on AIM that will replace solid research to identify the best companies, who are undervalued. All you really have to do then is sit back and wait.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Rich, very sound judgement. There are many offering a 50%+ upside, but very few that look close to 100% purely based on current valuation, output and POG.
Cheers, Ash

Hi twogoals, check out page 20 of the 2019 Financial Report - 'In 2019, our total energy spend in Mali (electricity and fuel) was US$8.3 million, equivalent to approximately US$72/oz produced, comprising c.8% of our operating costs'.
Not sure where you get 1/3 of AISC, but happy to be proved wrong.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Suno, sorry to disappoint, but I’m going to wait a while before attributing anything to Dugbe. Right now, I’m invested for this year’s results from Yanfolila. Targeting 60p based on current POG and meeting forecast production/sales. Anything else is a bonus.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Paul, even if I could afford one, it’d be more than we’ll need. Quite happy with a 3-bed cottage in a village location, bit of land to grow some fruit & veg, maybe some chickens running around, laying eggs. As long as we’re near to the cross-roads with routes to Spain & Italy so we can travel from time to time, but not too far from the coast, we’ll be more than happy. Probably somewhere between Toulouse & Perpignan. Opportunity to watch some great rugby as well.
Cheers, Ash

Hi RD2U, chuckling at the thought of a villa in the South of France. I think the reality will be a little bit less glamorous!
Cheers, Ash

Cheers Joe!

Hi Suno, Odey hold 4.7% here as of 2 weeks ago. Could do without them having to sell as well, but as GoldenBull pointed out, it makes stock available and there is plenty of demand right now.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Paul, you're a braver man than me! What I don't get sometimes is why you and Joe are always locking horns, apart from the politics. I'm pretty sure I'd get on with both of you over a couple of beers, even if I had to play referee/umpire!
Anyway, a good day today for everyone with POG on the rise. AAU does look nicely poised for a bit of a run. Just needs a bit of volume and some whoop, whoop! I'll try and be more positive.
Cheers, Ash

Just to confuse matters, I added some AAU in my HL SIPP today with some uninvested cash & monthly pension contribution. Roll on Xmas, eh Joe!
Cheers, Ash

I don't think anyone knows. Selling down SHG as well. Putting money into GEMD and SEPL amongst others. Very strange.
Cheers, Ash

Unfortunately, there's only 365 days in the year....need a few more for some days off.
Cheers, Ash

Hi B66, I can't answer for everyone so I'm not going to attempt that. The concept of the new JV is fine by me. I understand the benefits and I also understand the short-term value that is being given up. I could probably provide you with a what if scenario that compares the two options over the next few years in terms of profit and cash. What I cannot do is provide you with a prediction on how the sp will react and I doubt anyone else can.
In short, everyone has to weigh up where to invest their cash now in the hope that the decision is the right one for them. If you have a longer-term view, then AAU stacks up - I cannot disagree with the points you put forward.
Personally, I think AAU will produce c. 18.5k oz of gold this year - about 2/3 of 2019 production. I think this will settle around 17-18k oz until Tavsan comes into production early 2022.
Granted the increasing POG will enhance profitability, but cash costs of production will also increase due to lower grades being mined - the best grades from Arzu South are nearly exhausted and the remaining grades are nearer 2 g/t then 4 g/t. They are unable to increase capacity for at least 12 months from the time they instigate that process. By the end of this year, I estimate they will have a year's worth of throughput sat in the stockpile. God knows where they're going to put that!
I don't think anyone has researched AAU or crunched the numbers to the extent that I have in the last year (if they have, then fair play) so I don't say this lightly, but as an investor, I need an increase in production, sales and profit whilst POG is on the rise in order to keep all my investment here as opposed to looking elsewhere. I do not disagree there is huge potential and in due course, the new JV will make this happen. There are risks as some allude to, but there is with so many investments. C;est la vie. Ultimately, you pays your money and makes your choice.
Cheers, Ash

Actually, having checked the numbers, FIFO is right on the potential write down - the tangible asset value is $65m so if you deduct the royalty liability of $15m the net is $50m - $25m loss on transfer of assets to the JV. However, if the costs of exploration and the DFS c. $20m? are added back to intangible assets within the JV, the value of the asset to HUM are increased again by 51% - $10m. Then they will be depreciated, if Dugbe goes into production - end result is the asset value will be written down sooner or later. Question is, how much more cash could HUM shareholders receive as a result of the JV rather than admiring a balance sheet with an asset that's probably worth jacksh*t without further investment, and which allows the company to focus on potential assets such as Kouroussa?
Far too complicated at this time of night after a few beers! Hopefully, someone understands my drift....
Cheers, Ash

If I was valuing HUM on a break-up basis, it would be of more concern. Also, worth thinking about the $15m future royalty liability - will this also be moved across to the JV - always look at the net asset position.
Ultimately, cash is king right now. Will the transaction affect HUM’s ability to generate cash? No. Will it potentially add further cash. Hopefully...
Cheers, Ash

Hi John, that first line sums up a lot of the investment stories in mining. GGP, PUR, EUA and countless others have so much baked into the sp in the earlier stages, but once they actually start producing, the valuation metrics seem to change overnight and they never seem to revert back to that original optimism, even when they move forwards with additional prospects potentially adding greater value.
I guess the only way to embrace this dichotomy is to have a bit of both in your portfolio - you know who your steady eddies are that you can trust and will rise over time, but you add a few riskier plays in the hope that one of them will be the multi-bagger you dream about, especially in the current climate. Not a good idea to go full in on a lot of the riskier plays, but adds a bit of spice!
Cheers, Ash

Excellent news, but starting to get a bit bored with this range. Needs some serious volume to put some pressure on the sp. Hopefully, quarterlies will be out next week and not as late as they were last year.
Cheers, Ash