Member Info for M20ASH

Anyone else thinking that after today’s results, HUM is on target for a post tax net profit share of somewhere north of £35m? Just wondered what the market cap might be based on that...
Cheers, Ash

Surely if depreciation is added back, then writing down allowances are then deducted before calculating taxable profits, although it may be that certain assets qualified for 100% WDA's in the year of acquistion. Maybe worth checking out how Ct is calculated in Tanzania.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Dubbs, the gold is bought by the Turkish Treasury and paid for in Turkish Lira. Some of this is then used to pay the local running costs and the rest is exchanged - USD has been required to repay the original USD construction loan (now repaid), but not sure what currency the working capital loan is denominated in as it was never formally announced when taken out.
I suppose the potential issue here is whether the currency exchange restrictions being applied to Turkish citizens also apply to businesses. Turkish citizens are turning to buying gold. A lot of local businesses, particularly in tourist areas have always been happy to take payment in GBP or offer cheap FX rates.
Interesting scenario.
Cheers, Ash

Don't forget they expire 30 September and they've effectively bought them at 10p and sold them at 12.5p compared to the current sp of 11p.
Cheers, Ash

It’s late and I’ve had a few beers & a couple of glasses of wine ( nothing new there), it’s been a loss day as well so not all is rosy, but blaming it all on the board is not the right approach in my opinion.
I’m not sure how many investors here have run a public company or even a private limited company with all the day to day pressures?
I’ve only been invested in HUM since last December. Before that I was invested in AAU 100% and all I can say is that that the engagement with shareholders is completely different, but for me the difference with AAU is the willingness to engage in discussion with the Board.
The impression I have here is that there are too many dissatisfied shareholders, who invested at a higher price when so much was promised and not achieved in terms of the share price. As a result, so many decisions have been criticised. I suppose that’s inevitable, but put yourselves in the shoes of the Directors trying to steer this in the right direction. Ok, I understand that they are well paid, have cheap share options, but surely they are geared up to criteria that we want from company?
However, as shareholders, we now have a company that is heading in the right direction, which is what the BoD set out to achieve, but that engagement still doesn’t really exist.
Maybe some old wounds need to be healed and better engagement is required going forwards. It works both ways and what’s to lose?
Cheers, Ash

Agreed, but he just gets on my tits. As you say, no opinion on the merits, one way or another. I could cope with a reasoned argument or some basis for his view, but so far sweet FA.
Cheers, Ash

I’m thinking I’ve got about £75k in cash and a £275k SIPP transfer looking for a buying opportunity. How does that compare to your piddling little short on POG?

Hi GB, yes, they have been building a stake in Gem Diamonds. Probably as a long term recovery play as the market is down currently with a bit of a glut for the foreseeable future and competition from synthetics, if that’s the right word.
Cheers, Ash

I would suggest very little will find its way to Canada, given that Bunker Hill is in Idaho, USA.
Cheers, Ash

Talking of 30p, has anyone seen it recently? I’ve been hunting high and low, but can’t find it anywhere....
Cheers, Ash

Excellent posts, thank you.

Last word from me on the subject of techandy. My top three ****wombles:
1. Techandy
2. British b*llends
3. Donald Trump
Cheers, Ash

Ditto

Hi Visitor, I bow to your greater knowledge. Not quite up to speed on the tax system in Mali and you're quite right, it is only 10% currently, but even assuming that changes to 20% in the future, the numbers suggest HUM is sat at a considerable discount to where it should be, based on current metrics.
Thanks, Ash

Not to labour the point, but that H2 turnaround last year was $15m. If you double that to $30m for a full year, convert to GBP at 1.25, knock off the 30% tax and 20% post-tax minority interest it is £13.4m. At a PE of 10 that's about where the market value currently sits. Nothing allowed for gold at $1950 rather than, say $1450 in H2 last year. Simple I know, but true.
Cheers, Ash

Worth remembering here that 2019 ended up with a pre-tax profit of $9.4m after a disappointing $5.8m pre-tax loss in H1 at an average gold price of $1377/oz for the year and a much higher average AISC. Even at $1500/oz and an AISC of c. $900, HUM will be coining it in so at the current price of gold, I am quite comfortable riding out any dips. The only reason I sold any of my 5 gold stocks was to minimise any downside risk from a much bigger market event.
If you're happy to trade to make a bit here and there or see short-term opportunities elsewhere, fair enough, but I really see no reason right now to be concerned about HUM's ongoing performance.
Cheers, Ash

So would that suggest that they could initially get an open-pit operation going at Salinbas with 2.2g/t gold and then move to the Ardala porphyry or does that not make sense? Keen to understand more.
Thanks, Ash

Hi Balanced, like VanVan, I'm don't know much about SOLG, but I think GGP is a completely different type of deposit - deep underground with high grades.
Cheers, Ash

Hi CK, those are huge numbers and I had no idea that the capex would be so large. Mind-boggling stuff!
Cheers, Ash

Just wanted to say thanks for all the kind comments on my post last night. Shows what a great board this is.
Nice close for gold tonight. Watched it climbing after the Fed announcement and thought here we go. Maybe not yet, but can’t be long.
Adds more to my target, but if it does drop to 30p, maybe I’ll buy back the ones I sold. Unlike techandy, however, I won’t be selling at 33p!
Cheers, Ash