Member Info for m007j

Chid - it is good to see that Nurse Ratched allows you access to the internet. Do keep taking the pills.

A legal view inline with what knot has been saying for a long time:

https://gatehouselaw.co.uk/motor-finance-commission-in-the-supreme-court-predicting-the-impact-on-credit-brokers-and-other-professionals/

Knot, is it fair to say that it is likely the Supreme Court will overturn the CoA ruling? And if it does not then Parliament will be forced to do so by passing new legislation. Because as the legal article pasted here says: "The issues at stake have the potential to have a genuine macroeconomic impact on the UK". Either way, Close Brothers shares are likely to benefit.

My dear Pokerchips - that provision was a non cash item and tiny within the context of Mobico's total balance sheet which exceeds £4bln in size. Feels like amateur hour on this chat - but if discussing insignificant issues makes people happy so be it. It is a free world. But I can imagine there has been quite some "wealthtransfer" from some clowns on this board to investors who actually know what they are doing.

The key driver of the turnaround at Mobico is the US business which is huge in scale compared to Germany. And now Mobico is in the enviable position of either selling it at a great valuation or keeping it and enjoying the fruits of the full profit recovery.

Just for background here is a breakdown of Mobico EBIT: Alsa 54%; US 41%; UK 3% and Germany 2%. EBIT is Earnings Before Interest and Tax. Anyway, over to the clowns to go on discussing the political economy of Germany or maybe bus routes on the UK......

Wealthtransfer - your inability to explain the significance of the German business clearly shows that you are one of those amateurs who hangs around these messaging boards, with little knowledge nor analytical capacity, trying to seem relevant and knowledgeable. You focus on the German business which is totally immaterial give its small size - talking about the performance of the German economy as if it matters. Best to save this amateurish talk to the lads down the pub who will not doubt be easier to impress.

We need Chid to give us his view on REEVES and how her statement today may impact UK fiscal services! Come on Chid, we all miss your mangled syntax.

I understand. You are saying that the German contracts could become a significant part of the group in terms of earnings. Maybe on par with ALSA? As long as they are "resolved" in the right way. Yes we can but hope. Meanwhile, I would not give up the day job if I were you wealthtransfer.

We could really do with an in depth discussion of the German business! Given it accounts for 2pct of EBIT. Particularly whether the new government's fiscal policy will impact it positively and a general discussion regarding the extent to which a peace deal in Ukraine could provide a boost to Germany and thereby support this very important part of the Mobico group. Looking forward to an extensive discussion on the matter

There is the FTSE indices re jig next week. That is probably the reason for the volume at the close. Is CBG about to re-enter some index?

There is a lot of talk on this discussion board about Germany and Mobico's German operations but it is important to remember that Germany accounts for just 2% of EBIT. Call me flippant but I do not think the company's German operations are that important.

Day trading is a mugs game. You are gonna lose trying. But it is exciting. Meanwhile long-term investing is boring but you are more likely to make money at it. Look at CBG pre results on Monday. Looked like the results were gonna be great. Some said Fidelity ("as all the big boys do") had received the heads up before hand. And then Tuesday occurred. Bottomline is, CBG trades at 0.25x book value vs 1x for the likes of Lloyds and Natwest. It has never traded cheaper. During the Great Financial Crisis, which was a banking crisis, CBG traded at 1.2-1.4x book value. For much of the past decade it traded at close to 2x book value. Yes short terms hedge funds can push the price around but long term fundamentals will determine the price. And if you are in 0.25x book and the bank makes an operating profit of around £150m per year chances are you will do pretty well over the long term. Where the stock trades short term is anyone's guess.

Knot you sound like a value investors. With impressive knowledge of hedge fund/derivative strategies/market technicals and even more impressive legal knowledge. However, I have never met a lawyer that is a good investor - they are too word based in the way they think. So maybe you are an ex/current fund manager who studied law at university but then went into the City and never practiced law.

RNS just out says Fidelity International Ltd (FIL), the US fund management giant, last week raised its stake in CBG to 5.1% from 4.6%.

A sharp rise in CBG shares (akin to that seen at Secure Trust Bank last week) could be very painful for short sellers. A horrible situation could develop whereby shorts rushing to close their position drive the price yet higher against themselves thereby adding to their pain. Terrible. Like a wild animal caught in a trap - the more it pulls to free itself the worst the pain it suffers.

Secure Trust Bank published results last week and its shares rose 35% following the figures. It seems that in the case of Secure Trust Bank investors have started to look beyond the motor finance drama and focused on the long term earnings potential of the bank and the ultra low valuation of the shares. The same could happen with CBG tomorrow.

I think Changeofpace is correct. All the stocks added in the FTSE 250 in December 2024 have lost over 20% of their value. That cannot be a coincidence. There is a major unwind going - most probably relating to the mess up by Millennium which has lost $900m on that strategy.

Headline in today's FT: "UK financial regulators in retreat as prime minister piles on pressure".

The article says: "Confronted by an onslaught of government calls for them to support economic growth, regulators have been forced on to the back foot".

Check out results from Secure Trust Bank - they were published today. Like CBG, the stock was hit by the motor finance drama. But it is recovering fast - up 18% so far today.

Chid - keep taking the pills. And when things get a bit too much for you, maybe a nice lie down in a dark room would be good for you.

Weird there has been on RNS to document those big trades that went through on Feb 28th.

I wonder how this impacts CBG:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/bank-of-england-plans-to-ease-leverage-rules-on-uk-lenders/ar-AA1AhRjG?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds