Member Info for m007j

It feels a bit squeezy for those holding short positions today.

The market is strong today. But Card Factory shares are weak.

Feels a bit squeezy for those with a short position this afternoon.

JamesOxford, you sound like you know your stuff. Are you a former stock broker?

Why would anyone want to supress the share price of Card Factory? Maybe it will just take some time for investors to figure out the stock is interesting. Maybe there is a big seller that needs to be cleared before the stock can progress.

Momentum building in Capita shares......

Flatliners is right. This stock is being held back by the hedge funds. And the WEF globalists as well as the market makers. All doing their best to get this stock down to 40p. All of them against good old fashioned native British businesses like Card Factory - the swines. Only Reform UK save this stock and also our country!

Do not understand why the stock was crushed in such a way. Results were good

Child, you consistently produce long winded posts which contain little worthwhile substance and certainly no analysis or insight. Maybe you were ignored as a child and now you have a desperate desire to have a voice and to be noticed. So you resort to cliche ridden missives which add zero to our knowledge of Close Brothers and its prospects going forward. Maybe save your vacuous musings for the lads down the pub.

Knot a further question if I may. Is it likely that the short position in Close Brothers is totally driven by quant funds. That is computer driven funds with little human overview of individual positions. The investment decision to go short is driven by certain factors that the computers consider to be bearish such as the past share price movement, forward earnings per share forecasts etc. These funds have no view on the outcome of the upcoming Supreme Court decision in fact the issue has had no bearing on their decision to go short. The fact we have 4 funds short Close stock - Qube, Marshall Wace, Caius and Walleye - is merely because they have similar computerised trading strategies which are largely based around past share price movement and forward (next quarter) earnings expectations as well as maybe other such factors.

Knot, clearly you feel that Close Brothers shares at current levels represent uniquely good value and in fact a rare opportunity for investors. Have you seen anything like it in recent time? You mentioned Centrica not too many years ago was similar. Any other recent examples which offered a risk-reward akin to Close Brothers today?

Sorry Alnwick but Card Factory's gross margin is not that great at all!

Alnwick, Card Factory has an OK gross margin. But other retailers in the UK have much better gross margins.

Frasers Group Gross Margin: 43%

Next PLC Gross Margin: 44%

Card Factory Gross Margin: 36%

Next PLC today said that the national insurance and minimum wage increases announced in October's budget would add £67m to its wage costs in 2025. Next has 32,000 employees in the UK - that is £2,100 extra cost per employee.

Frasers Group said in December that the national insurance and minimum wage increases would cost it an extra £50m per year. It has 21,000 employees in the UK which works out at £2,400 extra cost per employee.

Card Factory has 10,300 employees in the UK. Will it be impacted the way Next and Frasers Group have been? I guess we will soon find out.

Business is booming at Aldi. That is great news for Card Factory which is also in the retail sector.

Knot - 2 questions if I may. You seem very knowledgeable - have you worked in the finance industry for some time? Do you hold a 0.61% stake in CBG, a previous post of yours suggested that might be the case.

What could possibly drive it up to 40p?

The UBS note published on 5th December was in response to the US acquisition

My point is merely that UBS on the 5th December 2024 said there is no guidance with regard to the impact of higher national insurance costs and that we will find out the impact of these higher costs in the trading statement later this month. Sorry chaps, I don't mean to sow any doubt..........just thought it was an interesting point........I hope I have not caused any undue concern.....

Comments from UBS published on 5 December 2024:

"Card Factory shares are down c40% since the largely in-line H1 results, mostly driven by concerns

around H2 delivery as well as uncertainty around National insurance and minimum wage changes next year. The impact of the latter on FY-26 number remains unclear (with no official guidance on the topic expected until the FY update in Jan 2025).

Wiscos - you seem to know more than UBS.