Member Info for m007j

It has around 8p a share of cash and no debt.

Smokeytime clearly suffers from some kind of mental impairment. The Comen family spent over £40m increasing their stake to 25% between November 2023 and July 2024 at prices around 70p. And now Smokeytime will have us believe they are selling their shares down below 30p. Because this will somehow give them control of ALSA. Surely if they want control of ALSA they will be buying more shares down here at 30p Mr I Took Repeated Blows to the Head as Child and Now I am a Moron Called Smokeytime?

We just need the German business to turn around and everything will be OK!

Would not be surprised to see the Cosmen Family adding to their stake at these levels.

But that is the point Hindy86 - Mobico can use the £600m RCF (low interest instrument) to pay off the £500m hybrid bond (high interest instrument). Net debt would remain unchanged but the company's interest bill would be greatly reduced!

Mobico generated £426m of EBITDA in 2024. Of that £92m came from the US school business which is being sold. So ongoing EBITDA is £334m. That is more than enough to cover the going interest charge of £89m. After sale of US school business, cash will be £436m, debt including the hybrid will be £1671m, so net debt will be £1235m (£1671m minus £436m). Current market cap (at 33p per share) is £203m giving an enterprise value of £1,438m (£1235m plus £203m = £1,438m). That gives a valuation of just 4.3x EV/EBITDA. If the share price increases to 100p the valuation only increases to 5.5x. Not sure what all the hysteria is about. The currently low valuation will assert itself and over the coming months we should see a re-rate.

Anyone thinking that a rights issue or equity fundraising is coming clearly has no idea what they are on about. Mobico currently has £203m of cash. By the end of July it will have a further £233m of cash from the sale of the US school bus business (excluding the earn out which comes over the next 2 years and could reach £52m or $70m). That is £436m of cash by the end of July. On top of that Mobico has a £600m unused revolving credit facility. That is over £1bln of liquidity.

REEVES wants to plans to reduce banking regulation

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-reeves-banking-regulations-growth-us-b2739154.html

Enso your numbers add up.

The upfront consideration of $385m is after deductions for:

IFRS 16 leases ($38m)

Non-IFRS 16 leases ($75m)

Other adjustable items ($40m)

Add on the $70m earn out and you get to their EV of $608m

Wealthtransfer - calm down mate. You are gonna have a coronary. Maybe a have lie down in a dark room - that might steady you a bit.

Mobico ran a process starting in October 2023 aimed at selling the school bus business They spent over a year trying to get the best price for the business. This is the best price they could get. Because clearly it is not a very good business. Otherwise they would have got a better price. The school business is a very capital intensive business - that means it needs a lot of capex and working capital to maintain and grow it. By selling it Mobico can focus on generating cash from ALSA which is a cash cow in order to pay down debt.

Sounds like the wealth transfer is continuing today. From wealthtransfer to other market participants. Given the quality of your analysis regarding Mobico I suspect further such wealth transfers are on the cards for you my friend.

US disposal today is a side show. What counts are the results next week and particularly the performance of the German division. Isn't that right Wealthtransfer?

I would be interesting to hear what Chid thinks about a potential Santander exit from the UK and how that might impact LLOYDS and UK fiscal services more generally. Come on Chid, we need a laugh!

Thanks Wealthtransfer. It is so good to have you. I have followed your posts very closely and always use them as a reverse indicator. Also it is good to have someone like you to laugh at. There is not enough laughter in the world but your missives on this message board are a great source of mirth.

You are wrong fishb0n3. Wealthtransfer will explain to you. Germany is all important. You tell him Wealth! Because you know so much.

I wonder how the German business is performing. That will be key to the company's future.

Kopernik Global Investors who now hold 3% of CBG could cause quite some damage to those with short positions. It has AUM of $6.3bln. It is focused on global value investments according to their website: "Kopernik invests and trades primarily in global corporate public equity, including assets from an extensive global investment universe across the entire capitalization spectrum within the developed, emerging and frontier markets. This is implemented through an actively managed, research-driven, fundamentals-based, value-oriented process".

Short sellers seem to have cut their short position in CBG today. Probably because they found out that Chid is bearish on the stock.

Actus is a systematic investor.

Systematic traders focus on using predefined, data-driven rules and algorithms to guide their stock market investing decisions. They aim to remove emotional biases by relying on quantitative analysis, historical data, and market indicators. Their primary focus includes identifying and capitalizing on market inefficiencies, trends, and patterns through strategies such as trend following, mean reversion, momentum, and statistical arbitrage.

Actus is not a fundamentals investor. Severfield has an 20pct market share in a specialised part of the UK steel sector. This is not a rival to British Steel.

Chid can I ask, were you dropped repeatedly on your head as a child by your mother?