Member Info for m007j

Shorters moving to cut the rally in the stock down to size. They had no choice for fear it runs away from them. So they dig deeper.

I think Trump blinked because he feared the Fed would not bail him out if the bond market collapsed. In fact he feared the Fed would have enjoyed his pain as a way to discredit him.

The ERM was a nonsense system for the pound - flawed from the start which the BOE could have only sustained via capital controls. Anyway, too academic.

Let's wait for the July result of the SC and enjoy the comfort of CBG which trades at an all time low valuation of 0.28x book and which could possibly be on a dividend yield of over 25% in 2 years time based on the present share price.

My point is that government authorities like the central bank are more powerful than capital markets. Because governments can change the rules of the game should they wish while central banks with their own currency can expand their balance sheets infinitely thereby controlling interest rates in the market.

Am afraid you are over simplifying it, knot. The Bank of Japan has been buying Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) heavily in recent years and currently holds over 50% of all outstanding JGBs with the aim of keep interest rates low. Has this caused Weimar type hyper inflation? No it has not. This is also an option for the Fed if they are faced with spiralling interest rates.

Bladerunneruk - you are wrong. The US holds all the cards because China is the surplus nation which exports more than it imports from the US. So in a trade war it has more to lose - to whom will it sell all its surplus output? To Africa? If China dumps US government bonds the Fed would step in and buy them up thereby keeping a lid on interest rates. The Fed can increase its balance sheet infinitely.

Zero chance of Speedy being delisted. The top 10 shareholders (who hold over 50% of the company) are all fund management companies who can only invest in listed companies. When this company turns around it will fly given the operational gearing of the business.

I think the current correction is gathering steam. But CBG will be OK given it trades at 0.28x book and has plenty of cash following its disposal.

If China decided to abandon its holdings of US Treasuries I am sure the Fed would be there to unburden them of their holdings - at a price of course. Never forget the Fed has the capacity to increase its balance sheet infinitely. Or better still, Don might just default on all foreign holders of US Treasures. If you owe some $2K it is your problem. If you owe them $2 trillion it is their problem.

"One aspect to consider, for example, is the remaining massive overhang of QE that is still supporting the market, even with reverse QE ongoing". I would have thought "reverse QE" is negative for asset prices. That was my only point.

Knot, what multi trillion overhang do you mean? Because at the moment the Fed is shrinking its balance sheet. Do you mean the huge fiscal deficit in the US?

Liberty2 - thank you for that impartial analysis presentation from Quadrant Chambers. Their view is very clear - the Supreme Court will not be able to find against the lenders on neither the accusation that they had bribed car dealers nor on the accusation that dealers owed a fiduciary duty to their customers. This will make it pretty impossible for customers to pursue claims against lenders like CBG. For anyone interested here is the presentation, it is very well put together:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OAVfYLGWPuY

Watch the shorters put a lid on the share price rise once it gets near 290p. Problem is by doing so they are digging themselves in deeper.

Confirmed - shorters have been adding to their positions. The short position in CBG now stands at 5.71% which is an all time high. They add but they struggle to keep the stock down. Even on a very negative day for the wider market.

The shorters will need to add to their positions to keep it down.

I see Pokerchips - you think Trump has introduced the biggest set of tariffs for a generation, which threaten to change the nature of the US and global economy, so that the can get the best price possible for the US division of Tik Tok.

Sorry but you give clowns a bad name.

Stagflation, fixed interest bonds....clearly Pokerchips has googled "Economics". I guess most kids birthday parties are on weekends so you have some spare time on your hands away from the unicycle and green wig.

Pokerchips - maybe you should do an GCSE in Economics before posting any further comments? During recessions interest rates also fall which will be good for a company with lots of debt like Mobico.

Pokerchips - I am afraid once again your analysis is very shallow and poor. Maybe stick to riding the unicycle with a green wig and red nose at children’s parties.

Trump’s tariffs have nothing to do with who is going to buy Tik Tok. Save your talk for the lads down the pub, this is a site for serious investors not clowns!

The time between FirstGroup announcing its plans to sell its U.S. businesses (First Student and First Transit) and the actual completion of the sale was 495 days or approximately 16 months.

Announcement Date: 14 March 2020

Sale Completion Date: 22 July 2021

So First Group managed to sell its US business during an unprecedented medical crisis and also an economic crisis. That gives me hope that Mobico should also be able to do the same. Although clearly it takes time.