Member Info for M.McNulty

But firstly, a quick nod to my troll:

Gallmat - such an angry man! 😂

Presumably he bought AVCT at the highs of 290p (after I had state my initial entry was 17p); TGR at 150p (after I had stated my initial entry was 52p); and BSF at 23p (after I had stated my initial entry was 8p). SO what if the share prices have come down since then? If there are people online happy to do zero work and just try to piggyback on someone else’s trade (and more importantly, the work gone into the trade), then they should at the very least be using trailing stop losses.

The Internet is littered with bitter losers who can't take responsibility for their own actions, when it comes to buying and selling shares. If any of them can find anywhere online where I've actively suggested anyone else should buy a particular stock, I'd love to read it. I state why I've bought or why I like a stock; that's it.

[With particular reference to Gallmat – having had a quick flick through his posts, it is obvious that he has been trying to act a friendly guy and as an innocent new investor in Mkango, before not being able to hold back his resentment towards me and allowing his mask to slip last night. Loser 😂]

......

Now, to Mkango itself!

A very bullish presentation last night (well, the first 45 minutes were; the final 15 minutes were a complete shambles with the poor connection!). The Insermi technology is superb, and is highly complementary to HyProMag's technology (which is the only REE recycling tech that can work on NdFeB magnets that are not entirely stripped down first – thus making it only relevant to HPMS recycling anyway!).

The partnership will supercharge the flow of material to Maginito’s HPMS plants across the world. It was great to hear that Will and Alex have recently been in Japan – I’m hoping for a Cotec-esque partnership there (hub and spoke model, with multiple HPMS plants established), given the importance of REEs to a number of Japan’s key industries.

Both Canada and Mexico were also mentioned as fifth / sixth locations in which the technology could / would be rolled out.

In the Q&A, offtakes were asked about. I will need to re-watch it when the recording is released, but I recall that they alluded to already being in discussions with major customers (at least for the UK and German plants). I’m expecting news on this front in the coming months.

On multiple occasions, it was mentioned that each of Mkango’s three businesses (mining, separation, recycling) had strong support from the US government, the UK government and the EU. I’m also expecting news on this front (i.e. grants and possibly additional equity injections) in the coming months.

It would appear that I was correct yesterday. See the note at the bottom of this morning's TR1:

"All shareholdings notified by Peel Hunt since (and including) 5 June 2024 have been held by Peel Hunt's market making division, not its Nominated Adviser function which forms part of its investment banking/corporate finance division. Bullet points 3-5 (inclusive) of Schedule One to the Aim Rules for Nominated Advisers only apply to shareholdings of the corporate finance function of a Nominated Adviser firm and not to other areas adequately separated by ethical walls or similar safeguards."

I would hope today's RNS officially clarifies matters once and for all, for those doubters.

I bought quite heavily yesterday, following initial purchases two weeks ago - and suspect the share price begins to move more freely now.

Peel is a market maker, not a fund manager. It is not in the business of taking big punts on binary outcomes.

Separately, Peel also happens to be GDR's Nomad and broker. The fact that it has a market making division – separate from its corporate finance and equities divisions – is a big bonus. My view on the situation – and I could well be wrong – is this:

In order to help its client, GDR, Peel's market makers took a big chunk of the placing, so that Peel's brokers could raise the minimum £6m for GDR to pass as a going concern and not fall into administration / delist from the market.

The market makers are now rapidly reducing their risk. They are not in the business of holding big positions (be they long or short) – but, as their name suggests, of simply making markets.

Fortunately, in the weeks since the raise, UK markets (particularly for nano-and micro-caps) have strengthened considerably.

Many investors of the type who balked at putting in an order for the 1.50p placing, seven weeks ago, are now evidently happier to buy the shares at a 10%-15% premium in the open market, with the knowledge that many other investors are too. Classic herd mentality.

Peel Hunt's market makers took a calculated punt, in order to primarily assist the corporate finance and equity sales divisions. It is paying off for the market makers (i.e. nice profit on the placing shares that it is flipping to now-more-confident investors buying in the open market); and it is paying off for Peel's other divisions, as GDR survives as a client that will pay an annual retainer for Peel’s broking and Nomad services (not to mention future commission on further fundraises).

I hope that helps.

Let's try that post again, hopefully in full this time! -

Pretty sure I bought up 1% of Avacta at 17p-18p in early 2020... and it went on to hit a high of 290p in

Pretty sure I bought up 1% of Avacta at 17p-18p in early 2020... and it went on to hit a high of 290p in

Www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2024/02/04-bsf-enterprise-an-introduction-1.pdf

Hope it's of use to anybody!

However, it is very important to remember that both AVA6000 and AVA3996 could receive accelerated approval from the FDA / MHRA etc, BEFORE they have completed (indeed, even commenced) their Pivotal trials (being P2 for 6000 and P3 for 3996).

As an aside, I am quite sure that the block selling going on these past few days, will be linked, one way or another, to the impending issuance of shares to HCI next week.

Very much looking forward to next week.

Following the announcement of the completion of the Suni Resources acquisition, I've spent the past three days researching and drafting this relative valuation analysis on Tirupati.

www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2023/04/tirupati-graphite-valuation-analysis-05.04.2023-5.pdf

Simple message: TGR is brutally undervalued in comparison to its peer group. My view is that it should not simply be trading in line with the peer group, but in fact at a significant premium to the peer group average.

As the business stands, I think TGR should be valued at in excess of 200p/s.

Please read the note before shouting me down. There is plenty of relevant data in the note from which I have arrived at this target valuation.

"Talk about rec dose for 1b being lower than we are now - rubbish. Makes no sense."

I will file this one away, beinthelead, to be brought out once P1b is underway.

PAH, I think people are (incorrectly) using Shasqi's compound, and the extremely high doxorubicin dosing levels they've achieved with it in their Phase 1a study, as a reference point - which is silly.

Click chemistry and cleavage via FAP - two COMPLETELY different delivery platforms.

I am quite sure Avacta will not go beyond 400mg/m2 (if indeed they get to C7).

As ever though, all my own opinion.

......

Morning IFA90 - if nothing has changed with regards to how quickly they can dose patients / how many doses per patient are required, etc... Then absolute best case it'll be 42 days between start of C5 and start of C6 (which they have actually already achieved between C3 and C4).

We have plateaued at +25% incremental increases, in line with the Modified Fibonacci Sequence that the trial is following.

Next dose should be 312.5mg/m2.

As I Tweeted some weeks ago, in a sense Avacta has been a victim of its own success (at least in the very near-term for traders focussed on weekly share price movements), as when it set the trial parameters it never thought that it'd reach 200mg/m2, let alone see the MTD dramatically surpass it (which I think will happen).

For Avacta, its long term shareholders and the value of the pre CISION platform, it is extraordinarily good news.

The delivery platform has exceeded (by a long way) all expectations set by the pre-clinical data.

To be clear, I think that a change in communications (and several other matters) will come in the near future. That's my opinion.

My opinion is based on numerous large shareholders (including myself) actively pushing management for a number of changes in the company. Our actions are fact.

A considerable number of shareholders who I speak to – who in aggregate control a not-insignificant portion of the TVR – believe that Avacta's share price should be multiples of where it is now, given that the preCISION platform has now been proved both with 6000 clinical data, and with 3996 pre-clinical data.

Avacta has an 88% retail shareholder base. They hold the power.

Forcing major change is relatively straightforward, if the retail shareholder base can be brought onside of those pushing for said change.

From conversations I have had with dozens of shareholders, as well as from reading various online forums, I would suggest that the large majority of retail – and thus the large majority of Avacta’s shareholders – want to see change.

There are a few simple fixes that can be easily made, which IMO would enable the share price to reflect the phenomenal progress made to date in the clinic with 6000 (i.e. via a large rerating upwards!).

Never been more excited about Avacta’s future. People seem to have completely forgotten that they have a working preCISION platform that will be worth tens of $ billions in the not too distant future. It’s just a matter of going through the clinic and ticking the boxes.

[So yes, RAH was correct in his statement below.]

More than 18:1 was not unexpected, for everyone who has been following Avacta (in mice, the ratio was 18:1 on average, and the company has been clear in its communications that due to less free FAP in the bloodstream in humans, compared to rodents, that this ratio could be surpassed).

If I do indeed recall correctly - and I say that as no one was given hard copies, it was all presented on the projector, and the specific slide wasn't up there for long - the ratio spanned from the teens to 120-130.

Happily for you with your rapacious mind, we in the auditorium had zero phone signal the entire afternoon.

Hope it's useful!

aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2023/02/avacta-group-validation-of-precision.pdf

I'd suggest that the reason for the delay in announcement of dosing C5, is to get permission from MHRA, and subsequently the SDMC, to alter the protocol so that they can hike the dose in greater increments than 25%. In this way, it could be found in no more than 3 cohorts from now. Just my own opinion, as always.

A wonder drug (and platform!) in the making.

That website does not account for ongoing equity dilution. Nor does it report on increases / decreases in positions below 0.50% (except for the initial reduction below 0.50%, as was the case for Jupiter on 18 October (who will, in my view, almost certainly have subsequently closed out the 0.30% balance of its position)).

If one thinks that Bronte has an open short still, then one must think that it increased its short, post the 95 placing, to maintain its 0.50% short position of the enlarged equity.

I find that highly unlikely.

Incorrect. It will only be 15-20 patients per tumour type in P1b.

If only one tumour type is selected, there could be as few as 15 patients in the whole of P1b.

If three tumour types are selected, there could be as many as 60 patients in P1b.

See slide 25 below for detail.

avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Avacta-Group-plc-Preliminary-Results-April-2021-for-web.pdf

Significantly better than preclinical, in my personal view.

Public evidence from the fact that they went to a C4 (when they had initially been in two minds to go there, based on preclinical data combined with standard dox human data).

That said, I’ve been wrong on Avacta many times before!

Laughing face x1, crying face x10

Many thanks for sharing a link that actually works, VertizeaSun.

https://aimchaos.com/category/investment-notes/

Morning,

Hope everyone's keeping well.

I've put together a note covering recent developments:

www.aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2022/10/avacta-group-transaction-and-fundraise.pdf

Personally, I think yesterday's news was fantastic.

It primes the SP perfectly to react as we hope it will to positive news from AVA6K Pla, later this quarter.

Really not long to wait now until that company-defining news...!