Member Info for M.McNulty

There is undoubtedly an attempt to silence the media. Elsewise it is incomprehensible that no major media outlet has yet identified Avacta as the leading contender (globally) to produce a first-in-class COVID-19 lateral flow test.

I would suggest the reason for this is that other governments across the world would snap up Avacta - or its entire supply of stock - in a heartbeat. We saw Trump do exactly that with Abbott's nasal-swab LFT ($750m order, for the first ~3 months of Abbott's entire manufacturing capacity).

People should be realising that the LFT as a class of test is now being put on a comparable level to that of vaccines. Governments are securing the produce of domestic companies precisely for domestic consumption.

It is not TOO far off calling it a measure of national security.

Hence the attempted media blackout. My belief is that the UK Gov has already secured the future output of all UK-based manufacturing of AVCT's LFT, at least for the first ~6 months.

All my own views, of course.

I believe that BBI and Abingdon are both in the process of multiplying their stated existing LFT output capacity. I've had conversations with people who's job it is to know about these things, and from what I understand it is not the most difficult of tasks to achieve.

Without wanting to cause any offence whatsoever to anyone reading this, I also personally think that - looking back on this saga in the years to come - ODX's most important role during the pandemic will be in the manufacturing of AVCT's antigen LFT. That will very likely be an incredibly lucrative activity in itself for the company.

All purely my own opinion.

This is a real setback for the UK, and the markets will take a big hit tomorrow. Futures have already fallen sharply, in fact.

But I expect Avacta will receive an enormous boost in the coming days, if indeed the vaccine trial has to be delayed for a considerable time period.

Fantastic to see familiar faces here.

I too have been buying (back) in recently, after a lengthy hiatus.

Yesterday's announcement concerning the Vanadium Rental Partnership - and critically the Partnership's first customer, Pivot Power - seems to have been entirely missed by the market. There will now likely be many more such customers to come in the near and medium term, which I think will assist Bushveld in quickly commanding a premium valuation rating over its peers.

And what's more - V prices just might be at the start of an uptrend. They look good to me, anyway!

Hoping to up my stake considerably over the next few weeks, as I exit other positions.

A very exciting time for Bushveld and its shareholders.

I seem to have enraged Jim Cramer with my comments on AVCT v ABT this morning... Whoops!

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1298893959327092736

Anyway, we’re just days away now from potentially major news:

BAMS clinical validation and rollout plan. More important than any potential revenue projections that could subsequently be made, will be the sens / spec of the test. If something along the lines of "the most accurate COVID-19 test in the world" is used in the RNS, that will generate immense interest in the Affimer tech from the diagnostics industry, as well as excite the market about what accuracy could be achieved by the LFT.

Additional manufacturing partners for the LFT (and ideally, a more concrete number on production capacity).

A nationwide programme with the UK Gov for LFT test delivery to households. This item is why I believe there has been very limited media coverage on AVCT, and why the Co is keeping its reporting to the market on developments of the LFT to a bare minimum. There are watertight NDAs in place.

Clinical validation results of the LFT and subsequent CE Marking.

Daewoong amending its MSC treatment for COVID-19 to include Affimers before commencing Phase I.

So many potentially mega share price catalysts could land in the next few weeks. What a time to be invested.

Summed up perfectly. I've just seen a poster's name being mentioned this morning who I have had on filter for months. I assumed everyone else thought he was a sly troll too and had him filtered - it seems he must be one of the ones contributing to the sea of green boxes I am constantly confronted with when checking in here!

It's a real shame - those who used to post decent, thought-provoking content no longer do so, as some oppressive trolls have somehow, extraordinarily, taken over. The dozens of 'Recommends' garnered by spbhoy in his post this morning are testament to what the silent majority watching this board think of a few of the loud, regular posters here.

Anyway, onto the only subject that should matter here... AVCT! A hugely exciting few weeks ahead. For those who are focussed on immediate share price uplift - then the key news will be pre-orders for the LFT, and most ideally by government (above all US gov). If the US gov puts in an order for 50m units, the SP will smash through £10 very quickly, I believe.

Such an event is not implausible, in my view.

JRDC, this has been explicitly relayed to the market by Avacta since the beginning of the LFT development programme, months ago. The aim is to get the LFT into professional use markets first, and subsequently into self-testing circulation.

Everyone holding the stock should already know this. It will in absolutely no way cause a hold up in product development, as it has been factored into the development timeline form the beginning.

I've learnt to be flattered when I attract the latest troll. It means I must be doing something right, on the long side of investing.

Alas, I don't have time to be reading the drivel of some bitter keyboard warrior, so there's another one filtered now.

Thanks for sharing my Tweet, gmcc. I can't imagine I'm the only one with those views! There was a notably large print at 129p late morning as well, which might have contributed to the sharp sell off. Anyway, good to see the share price bouncing somewhat, and now stabilising.

Suffice to say, I'm happily holding my full position, and I will do so for the foreseeable - as yes, I do indeed see fair value by Christmas time at multiples of the current price...!

It still sometimes surprises me that such disconnected valuations can exist. But this is becoming less frequent for me each week. I have come to acknowledge that public markets (and above all, AIM) are both irrational and often slow to see the big picture. In those rare times that you see it quickly and clearly, best grab the opportunity with both hands.

I have done it with Avacta. I have never been more confident holding a stock than I am in holding these shares right now.

Avacta’s share price has been gradually climbing since my (final!) top up 10 days. Ago. In fact, it has actually been in an uptrend since 16 June, when it hit a low of 95.5p in the wake of the placing at 120p.

I have said it before, but I feel like it can’t be stressed enough: Avacta has all the makings of a multi-billion-pound company – in the short term. I have never seen a hundred-million-pound business (let alone a £360m mkt cap company!) possess such ‘multi-bagging’ potential in a 12-month period.

The most incredible thing is that ALL of the information is there in the public domain for investors to reach this conclusion. It seems that many are waiting on confirmation that Avacta has a functional, accurate lateral flow test (‘LFT’) for COVID-19, before buying in.

Personally, I find this odd.

We’ve been told the Company has a working LFT already, and that Avacta and Cytiva are simply in the process of making it as accurate as possible, as this will ensure first-in-class status.

Despite what some commentators have been saying online about Avacta “missing the COVID-19 boat”, we also know that Avacta’s test could be one of the (if not THE) first saliva-based LFTs to market – again, globally. Accurate LFTs will revolutionise testing for COVID-19. It is indisputable that point-of-care antigen tests will sell in the many multiple times more than PCR and antibody tests.

Not only is Avacta’s LFT likely to be the most accurate LFT in the world, but it is also saliva-based, and therefore will offer a significantly better patient experience than an LFT that requires nasal swabbing for the sample.

We know that various intended national testing programmes across the world amount to an aggregate several hundred million LFTs – PER MONTH. As a first-in-class product, what market share might Avacta’s LFT achieve?

We know that Avacta is in talks with multiple manufacturing partners, as no single entity will have the capacity to produce the anticipated global demand of Avacta’s LFT.

We know that the UK government’s CONDOR programme has already said that it will accept Avacta’s LFT onto the programme – and that CONDOR has rigorous selection criteria. And we know that Avacta is sourcing other live patient samples from elsewhere – I would guess in the US.

I have demonstrated in my final note (www.aimchaos.com) that Avacta’ LFT could generate in excess of £4bn in revenue in its first 12 months from 1 September, at a PBT margin of (at least) 25%. There is plenty of material in the public domain that suggests that this will ultimately prove to be a highly conservative forecast.

To me, it seems entirely obvious that Avacta will become a £1bn company (400p+) in the next 2-3 months, and substantially higher in the subsequent 2-3 months.

Then there’s the true value of the business – the Affimer and pre CISION platforms being used in cancer therapeutics. Don’t even get me started on that.

Personally I thought the news today was fabulous. I posted this on Twitter this morning:

..........

I’ve said several times on here that I think AVCT’s BAMS test could become the most accurate test in the world for COVID-19. Great to see management confirming as much today: “The BAMS assay will... potentially provide a new gold standard for laboratory reference testing...”

It’s also critical to note that a BAMS test will take 5-10 minutes to process on the mass spectrometer. So a newly arrived patient showing COVID-19 symptoms can be tested and diagnosed in sub 30 mins. That’s in contrast to PCR testing, where turnaround time ranges from 6 to 24+ hours.

AVCT’s BAMS tests run on an already installed base of hospital machinery. No specialised desktop machinery need be purchased to run them, unlike various PCR tests. So, potentially: Most accurate, fastest COVID-19 lab test globally, with no new machinery required. Glorious.

Plus: “The CONDOR programme will support the clinical validation of the rapid saliva-based COVID-19 LFT.”

CONDOR has essentially accepted the LFT onto the programme. AVCT is telling the market that optimisation of the LFT is working / has been successful. A key message!

..........

Many say that it DOES matter where the share price ends each day, and of course that's understandable for those who are particular about week-to-week performance, or are intending to sell the position in the near-term (whether because it's a trade, or because a longer-term investment is approaching a specific target (share price, time horizon or other)).

I am not one of those people. Naturally, I get frustrated seeing the share price decline on a day of what really is excellent news; but on the other hand, this is the universe of my career. Its chronic inefficiencies enable me to make a living through a combination of trading and longer-term investing.

AVCT is a long-term investment for me. I don't really want to be selling a single share until at least 1,000p. Ideally, I would let it run until an eventual take over (£20+, if our BoD and major shareholders can hold their nerve!), but familial pressure will likely force me into taking some out before then.

In short - a 13p drop today is neither here nor there. If it drops another 10p tomorrow, I will very likely open a short-term long, to take it out in the next week or two at 140p+. But my long-term position will not be touched at all, even if it drops to 100p.

Looking forward to the news-flow that could land any day and in so many different forms now!

Hi POI, hope you’re well.

Yes, AffyXell is certainly under the radar. What is really exciting there is that the therapy itself will be generating Affimers in-vivo. Huge implications (if indeed Affimers are first proved safe and efficacious in humans!).

To answer your questions:

A) this half year, likely Oct-Nov. I think the partners will want the vehicle funded (and in tandem, given a valuation) before Avacta passes on its Affimers to AffyXell (which I think will be around Christmas).

B) really no idea, I’m afraid! $20m to $50m, pre-new money, if I had to guess.

Evening all,

I see a multitude of green boxes this evening, always a sign that undercover trolls are trying to dominate the board to drown out useful posts. My suggestion would be to filter anyone who’s been talking negatively about other posters more than just once - as opposed to about Avacta, as is meant to be for this board.

Anyway, onto Avacta - another solid day with volume picking up nicely. The pipeline for potential news flow continues to swell, and with it the pressure under the share price.

I’m still confident of a first sales date for the LFT of beginning of Sept - although as has been discussed, sales figures will not be the key catalyst in the immediate term, but global manufacturing capacity. I am hopeful that this detail will be provided in the next LFT update, which could land any day.

An update on BAMS clinical validation and CE Marking / FDA Approval is overdue, I feel. With that, I would hope that the company updates the market on manufacturing and distribution partners.

The SKIN/MWG partnership probably won’t be updated on for 4-6 weeks from now.

I also remain hopeful of a major partner moving in to develop a neutralising therapy, but as previously stated, in my view that’s a complete toss of the coin.

It would also be unsurprising if it announces an entirely new product under development that incorporates the Affimer binders for COVID-19, although I imagine that some of the more shortsighted shareholders will actually be dismayed by that.

Onto the non-COVID stuff - the IND submission for pro-dox should come any day now, I think. Whilst not game changing per se, it’ll help to resharpen the wider market’s focus on the outstanding opportunity that the pre CISION platform offers Avacta.

This share price could go anywhere during the rest of the year. I personally think there is limited downside to the placing price in that period, but upside that could far exceed my own bull case fair values suggested in my final research note.

My family and I are holding just shy of 2.2m now: I have high hopes that in 2-3 years’ time, we’ll have a meaningful stake in one of the UK’s larger integrated biotech companies. What a fantastic story to be part of! Good luck everyone.

I bought SNG this morning several times. The highest I paid was 126p. Mind you it was all averaging up - I've been holding since 35.5p.

Hi travel_light, in response to your post this morning:

I have written in detail on the advantages that an Affimer based neutralising therapy would enjoy over an antibody-based one in this note (pp.12-14):

https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/06/avacta-group-update-ii-part-ii.pdf

In particular, see the two clinical benefits that I suggested, on pp.13-14, and then see Avacta's own RNS, two weeks afterwards, that confirmed as much (4th paragraph):

https://www.investegate.co.uk/avacta-group-plc--avct-/rns/update-on-affimer--therapy-for-covid-19-infection/202006180700062969Q/

I also wholly disagree with your suggestion that it would take 3 years to bring such a therapy to market. What evidence is your timeline based on?

I think it would take less than 6 months. My thinking is based on the fact that Regeneron, which is developing a mAb based therapy, hopes to begin distribution of its therapy (assuming successful trials) as early as the end of this summer:

https://investor.regeneron.com/index.php/news-releases/news-release-details/regeneron-announces-manufacturing-and-supply-agreement-barda-and

Hi B2HS2L, in response to your post yesterday at 16:21 - I am quite sure management isn't waiting for a suitable deal, but is actively in discussions with various potential partners. I personally don't think they will be wasting time. I also am of the opinion that the government doesn't have it in its power to command a major pharma to develop an Affimer-based therapy. I believe that it must be initiated by the private sector, and only then will the government be able to lend its support to a started project. I could of course be wrong in this though.

A much better day. I've spoken to a lot of investors (holders and non-holders of AVCT) today about BJ's 500k tests per day target. There are plenty of eyes fixed on Avacta at the moment.

The test will sell in the hundreds of millions over the next year, of that I am extremely confident.

The ultimate bonus for me would be a tie up in the next couple of weeks with a major to develop a neutralising Affimer therapy for COVID-19. That would really supercharge the share price!

It's a flip of the coin - and I don't include it in my own valuation - but such a partnership could prove transformational to Avacta.

Anyway - have a good weekend all, really looking forward to watching Avacta progress over the next few months.

I don't know, Wishey, I've never really looked into VRS.

Had you created or found realistic and detailed financial modelling to demonstrate that VRS could quite easily make a billion pounds plus in free cash flow over the next 12 months?

I've seen the value of my family holding in AVCT dwindle by approximately £2m, since the peak share price, 215p, 6 weeks ago. I am not concerned in the slightest. Yes, it would have been fabulous to have sold the lot and bought back 50%+ more shares in the 120p placing - but, as I said in my previous post, hindsight is a wonderful thing. When I see the share price at over £10 within 12 months, why would I want to sell it at an 80% discount, despite being up almost 10x? AVCT offers by far the greatest risk/reward ratio of the stocks in the space in which I operate.

I think at long last, the period of consolidation after the first major leg up in the share price is drawing to a close. It can be very difficult for investors to hold on to their positions whilst value is slowly eroded by a gradually descending share price. Hindsight is a wonderful thing though: it's a big risk being out of the stock and missing out on the next major gap up, if/when news lands here as expected. That news might have come two weeks ago.

I’m firmly of the belief that AVCT’s move will be akin to TSLA’s over the next 12 months – only its share price trajectory will be steeper. One need only look at QDEL – revenue likely to be $800m to $900m in 2020, and yet it’s valued at $10bn+. It has recently started selling a vastly inferior antigen test for COVID-19 than AVCT’s LFT is expected to be. Moreover, it is a desktop / machine-based test.

The market’s memory is short. 6 weeks of consolidation can smash positive sentiment. But we know that results of optimisation of the LFT is imminent, and with these results, very likely detail on manufacturing partners – which should itself reveal unit capacity per month. As soon as that lands, that’ll give the market numbers to work with for the purpose of constructing valuation targets. If it’s say 20m units per month across a couple of partners, then that’s $300m revenue per month for AVCT. An RNS with that detail on manufacturing partners could very easily land on Monday. How would the market react, if it can clearly see that AVCT will begin generating that level of revenue from late August / early Sept? Bear in mind AVCT’s current enterprise value of ~£250m.

The instantaneous re-rating potential is immense – hence my intention to add another block of shares today.

A fabulous post as always, BBN.

I think that is why many posters have been quiet in recent weeks. There is little more of use to be said on LFT development until that next update. I agree that it won’t contain detail on S/S; rather it’ll just contain wording like that of the 09.06 Adeptrix update - “highly specific prototype...”

The key bit of news will be the manufacturing partner(s), and their intended capacity. Whilst they’re preparing their production lines, the LFT will be tested in hospitals in the UK (and hopefully simultaneously the US, as is happening with BAMS).

I’m still hopeful of an August sales commencement date (albeit latter half); but if not, then I’m very confident of start of September.

A massive two months ahead!

Evening all,

A quiet week thus far for Avacta - personally I'm happy enough with that. Can't do much more research myself here, we all know it's just a question of the management team executing on its plan, and in my book its doing a superb job. They've catapulted me to a ~450% paper profit in less than six months. Of course, I fully expect multiples of the current price in the next 6 months too, the rationale for which I have detailed in my notes. Daily swings in the share price are largely irrelevant without any major news flow. Once the various items of news do begin to land, assuming they are as I hope they will be, then I am quite confident the SP will quickly surpass its all time high.

The big unknown at the moment is whether a major signs up with us to develop a COVID-19 NAf therapy. That has the potential to unlock colossal value in the immediate term. My belief is that it is probable to occur. Fingers crossed!

I'll be back for more detailed discussion when the concrete news does begin to land. Until then, keep confident and don't feed the trolls!