Member Info for M.McNulty

I think whatever has been going on, is at last coming to a head.

Only 250k now on the ask. Let's see if more major prints materialize today. Very unusual to see 500k / 1m lumps published in real time on this stock. I think it signals that something has changed behind the scenes.

Whatever is going on, we're likely in for a very volatile few sessions ahead! I want 100p minimum; and several quid, once they also announce the listing of the HyProMag group companies on NASDAQ.

The very best of luck, fellow holders.

"Tiger Beta" is subnet 126. It was registered on 23 June.

"Swarm" is subnet 124. It was registered on 19 June, and is already generating T22/d.

If TIR's management has their wits about them, we should be looking for emissions to start building (which we can see online) at Tiger Beta before the weekend.

You are not taking into account that TIR is not only the subnet owner, but also both a miner (the owner of the AI bots in the subnet right now) and a validator.

So whilst the company does not do all of both activities, it does do a fair bit of them, especially the mining. Accordingly, it'll enjoy a high margin of the gross revenue generated by the subnet as a whole (i.e. emissions per day x TAO price).

If the gross revenue figure were not important to TIR itself, and only the owner share of emissions were relevant, then mgmt. wouldn't be repeatedly quoting that total emissions figure per day in the RNSs (including in yesterday's RNS).

Thinking aloud, would a more integrated tie up with AROK.VC be a possibility, launching the AI bot into TIR's bittensor subnet, Tiger Alpha?

My knowledge of this subject is basic (at best!), so anyone with experience / knowledge of this, I'd love to hear from you please on this topic.

It would seem the MKA guys read this BB, and wat to clarify that commercial production is indeed still to commence in the next two weeks at Birmingham. They just Tweeted this a couple of minutes ago:

"With first HPMS production runs at Tyseley Energy, UK, imminent, targeted by end of this month, Mkango subsidiary, HyProMag, is pleased to present an updated Technical Bulletin highlighting achievements and supporting ongoing offtake and partner discussions..."

So that's another major RNS in the next 10 sessions, to go with the major BCA RNS (unless of course that one is delayed).

Huge huge few weeks ahead here.

Just realized that we crossed with our posts here, Gallmat!

It's certainly an eye opener, isn't it. I just don't see our share price doesn't react aggressively to begin to close this immense valuation anomaly, soon enough.

The pre-market moves of both USAR and MP are ridiculous. MP now at $32; USAR at $16.

USAR mkt cap is now $1.6bn. MKA's and CTH's combined mkt caps are at $120m ($73m + $47m).

A 13.3x premium.

I would argue that HyProMag USA (alone!!) should be valued at at least double USAR's magnet operation (which accounted for their entire listing valuation - their early stage REE deposit was attributed nil value in the listing prospectus). Forget the HyProMag global business; forget MKA's other upstream assets and all of CoTec's other assets.

Just mental. A phenomenal rerate is fast approaching!

Always amusing to see trolls get caught out posting under multi-accounts, having forgotten which ones they're logged into! (And even more so, then try to explain away the purpose of multi-accounts!).

A fair few hate me because they bought AVCT at >200p-250p (I was quite clear I built my stake there at 17p), and losing a lot of money can turn people extremely nasty. Consequently, there are still trolls who will attack any other company I am heavily invested in. I appreciate this might sound narcissistic to some; but that's the truth!

Anyway - hopefully this instance will encourage us all to green box this particular troll and his multi-accounts.

Feedstock is evidently not an issue. Ig it were, there is absolutely no way that HyProMag USA would have completed its DFS in Q4 last year, only to then state in Q1 this year, "We're now looking at trebling the size of our US operation (1.0-1.5 ktpa o, to 3.0-4.5 ktpa) by converting the two intended pre-processing units, into integrated HPMS plants in their own right.

Same for UK going from the original 100 tpa plant, up to a suggested 1,000 tpa (watch out for this being mentioned again, in the next two weeks).

Same for Germany as well (informal talk in an interview of going to 500 tpa, again from only an original plant design of only 100 tpa).

Please block trolls, as they will not listen, no matter how lucid and rationally we present counterarguments. They are simply here to do their best to drive retail investors to sell, so they can enjoy watching MKA's share price fall.

Always makes me happy to see my dedicated troll accounts hard at work!

There're two possible explanations for the share price being pinned back the past two months, despite the unbelievably positive macro-environment, coupled with a handful of exceptional RNSs being released so far this month.

1) Talaxis is selling. I've spoken to mgmt multiple times about this possibility (including today), and they think it highly unlikely - on the contrary, they say Talaxis has recently voiced strong support. I think that everyone would agree (except of course my personal and/or Mkango's dedicated trolls) that selling now really is complete madness; but people and entities must sell all the time for any number of reasons, regardless of how promising the investment case is. [There is however, in general only ONE reason for anyone to be buying.]

2) The share price is being suppressed by a hostile entity. Difficult to do and can only be achieved for so long, in the face of a tide of positive news... but entirely possible. It could be an institutional player (trying to take a major stake at a low price); a corporate/industry player (trying to take over the company completely - be it a major miner or a PE House); or even - admittedly a v unlikely scenario - a national player (again, trying to take over the company completely; or, in a more nefarious scenario, possibly trying to see to it that the company does not succeed in bringing its operations online. No medals for correctly guessing which nation that might be, in this instance!).

I think it is inconceivable that it's someone building a short position, so I'm flat out ruling that possibility out.

Whoever / whatever is going on, the situation can’t last indefinitely. The NASDAQ and ASX listed public comps suggest a valuation for Mkango as it is today (for 100% of Lancaster and 80% of Maginito) of somewhere between 10x and 25x its current mkt cap. It’s not difficult for anyone to see this, if one chooses to look.

The share price is artificially low right now, for whichever reason it may be that I’ve highlighted above. I am 100% certain that the lack of mkt cap uplift it is not because the wider market is simply uninterested in company-specific and macro developments over the past several months.

The company has to just keep delivering, which will inevitably attract very larger investors, who will themselves clear out the determined seller(s) and/or nonsense trading games in no time.

Supply/offtakes, UK commercial production (and intended expansion over and above 330tpa!), BCA for NASDAQ SPAC, expansion into South Korea, Japan all coming up next, fingers crossed!

Evening Monteacute,

It's all to do with PRE just having carried out a placing and now with zero overhang in the way of avid buyers.

In contrast, Mkango is currently plagued with one of the company's largest shareholders selling down. In terms of why the SP didn't move today, despite all the buying, consider just how many shares the MMs are likely to be siting on between them, which they will need to offload to retail. Furthermore, there may well be more large delayed sells, which would also explain the heavy drag on the SP today.

Anyway - the seller can only sell once. We're churning the stock at a rate of knots >8% of the TVR in the past 5 sessions. Anyone who wants out, will be out soon enough.

I think that Trump is being intentionally vague.

If it were clear cut that Xi had confirmed he'd lift all export restrictions on rare earths / permanent magnets, I highly doubt buys would have poured unto industry bellwether, MP Materials, which is currently showing +2.7% after that Trump post.

Besides, as has been disused here extensively - regardless of whether all export restrictions are lifted now or in the coming weeks... The damage is done. All nations are now acutely aware of the urgent need to establish ex-China supply chains for rare earths, and above all, permanent magnets.

Morning esduk, unfortunately I don't. I have been reassured (this week) that Talaxis remain big supporters, so I'd be amazed (and obviously v disappointed!) if its' them.

Ask is certainly a lot light now, let's hope it was Mr Newton (or another 2-3% holder) and that was their final exit trade half an hour ago. Volumes will really pick up, if the market perceives that the block sales have completely stopped. I honestly think this will run to 30p, regardless of further news catalysts, simply to begin to price in all the amazing news (and rapidly evolving macro that is gloriously in our favour) that has been ignored due to the seller.

Book suddenly looking a lot healthier after that trade. It's different from the previous four sessions in that it was a non-rounded trade, mid-session. Dare I say the final exit trade? We shall see over the next few hours. Fingers crossed!

Another newly created account to troll Mkango, trying to sound intelligent but actually just appearing completely under-researched.

Both Pensana's and Arafura's projects (Longonjo, Aongoloa and Nolans, Australia, respectively) have secured at least some of the project financing necessary to commence mine construction - which has indeed commenced at both sites.

Both projects are uneconomical under current NdPr prices, yet both are still be built.

Such is the importance of bringing ex-China rare earths mines now into production as fast as possible, that government, industry and even the pro investment community are willing to back construction of projects whilst underwater.

Why? Because of one or both of the following two reasons:

1) Huge government subsidies will be provided to ex-China REE mines, to ensure they remain afloat, even if consistently lossmaking;

2) Government, industry and the investment community are banking on demand rocketing over the coming decade (humanoid robots, drones, EVs, space activities, data centres), which will massively outstrip supply, sending to the moon.

So the below troll's following statement - "So long as Songwe is uneconomical it will never be funded" - is, in my humble view, complete nonsense.

Imagine quoting a going concern to try to scare long-term investors in a pre-revenue, AIM-listed stock. Everyone reading is no doubt absolutely quaking with fear now.

The company could raise money at around - or at least very near to - the prevailing share price almost whenever it likes.

Agreed on Feed being a deramper. Ignore!

For actual holders who aren't aware though, the only City analyst covering the stock - Nick Chalmers at ARC - reiterated his numbers in a note published today.

For next year, for the HyProMag businesses (including a 50% share of HyP USA) he's pencilled in profit before tax of $6.5m and operating cash flow of $4.5m.

For 2027, those figures increase to $30.8m and $22.3m, respectively; and for 2028, to $53.3m and $46.5m, respectively.

Given Mkango's retained losses of almost $50m, I'd guess that the company won't start paying tax on those considerable cash flows until the end of FY 2028.

Expand the UK and Germany beyond the current nameplate capacities of 330tpa each (and it has been stated publicly that this could happen), to say 1,000tpa each; and in the US, from 1,500tpa to as much as 4,500tpa (being three separate 1,500tpa plants, and not just the currently planned hub and spoke model with a single manufacturing plant); and then roll out >1,000tpa plants in each of Japan, Canada, South Korea, India...

And it's very simple to see how Mkango can quickly become a leading player in the global NdFeB magnet industry.

[In a year or two, most expect NdFeB prices will be well north of $100/kg. So for the sake of simplicity, one can look at every 1,000tpa that comes online as $100m in annual revenue, yielding an EBITDA margin of at least 50%.]

...Especially given that they'll likely be throwing in one or two other major RNSs in the period, namely:

1) start of commercial operations at Birmingham - the first NdFeB magnet production in the UK for a quarter of a century;

2) scale up plans over and above the current nameplate capacity of 330tpa at Birmingham, possibly with UK Govt funding?

3) grant funding for HyProMag USA?

4) supply/offtake agreements for each of the three HyProMag operations.

This is the most opportune time in the company's history, for mgmt to really start pushing the story. And I am quite sure that they are aware of this.

A transformational period ahead for us!

£60m for our share of the combined HyProMag entities seems far FAR too low for me, given the valuation of the only publicly listed comparable, USA Rare Earth (which has averaged around $850m since its listing on NASDAQ three months ago).

We know from their respective prospectuses / feasibility studies that USAR is aiming for a cost of sales of circa $100/kg of NdFeB magnet product; whilst HyProMag is $16-$30/kg. We also know that HyProMag has incredibly strong, highly differentiated patented technology (the HPMS process), whereas USAR has non proprietary technology to speak of (and in fact it does not recycle at all).

We've got to focus not on the valuation that UK investors will ascribe to Mkango, but on what the international investment community will. I think that today, Maginito (on a 100% ownership basis) should be valued at double or treble the mkt cap of USAR. As for "fair value NOW", well, we should be taking that fair value that would likely be achieved, were the company to be listed on a different exchange (i.e. NASDAQ), and then discount back to account for the possibility of Mkango NOT deciding to move to NASDAQ (which would be foolish in the extreme), as well as the time that it will take to secure the listing as well as the risk in raising cash at said premium valuation.

A 150% premium valuation to USAR would be $2.1bn; a 200% premium valuation would be $2.6bn. Let's assume a very steep execution risk of 50%. Bear in mind this is nothing to do with operational risk but purely CORPORATE execution risk (i.e. solely the risk of failing to migrate to NASDAQ from AIM and raise cash at a lofty valuation there).

That's a fair value today for Maginito (100%-basis) of $1.1bn to $1.3bn. Assume Mkango ultimately ends up with 60-65% of the consolidated HyProMag businesses, under Maginito. That suggests a valuation range of $660m to $850m, for Mkango's interest in the HyProMag companies. TODAY.

This might sounds ludicrous, given Mkango's current market cap of £56.4m at 17.25p. But it is all there. It is a fact that the only listed direct peer to HyProMag is currently valued at $927m. It is also a fact that said peer has a cost of sales some 300% higher than HyProMag's. It is also a fact that USAR is constrained to a single operation in a single country, whereas HyProMag is globally scalable (operations being built in three nations right now, with further expansion intentions into Japan and Canada having been publicly announced, as well as there being obvious links for expansion into India and Mexico).

Such a valuation could come about very quickly, by a simple RNS landing tomorrow stating that Mkango itself (or Maginito) will also be seeking a listing on NASDAQ.

We should aiming very high, going forward. It's not just a pipedream anymore. Unprecedented geopolitical turmoil can transform that dream of a multi-billion $ valuation, into a reality, relatively quickly.

Don't disagree.

Volume has massively picked up since yesterday afternoon. Feels leaky to me.

Especially given that mgmt hasn't put out any significant news over the past two months, essentially since Pulawy was declared a Strategic Project by the EU in late March.

Given that throughout those two months, we have experienced such extreme geopolitical turmoil which has resulted in UNPRECEDENTED global news coverage of the rare earths industry - and throughout that time, Mkango has been almost completely silent - the natural conclusion is that they've been progressing on some VERY big workstreams (not least the SPAC).

Can't wait for this news to start to flow.

Buying pressure building again today.

Market makers were evidently sat on a considerable block from whoever had been selling down the last couple of weeks; but the buying pressure since yesterday afternoon has finally cleared it.

I m convinced that the large majority of the investment community has not cottoned on yet to just how important REEs (especially the key end-product, NdFeB magnets) have become to the largest governments and MNCs in the world, following the geopolitical turmoil of the past 2-3 months.

Look at the recent acquisitions of both Peak and Tanbreez; look at the market caps of US-listed Rare Element Resources and Idaho Strategic Resources; at the market caps of UK-listed Rainbow and Pensana; and a the market cap of ASX-listed Arafura.

I suspect the Lancaster spin-out will be valued at well in excess of US$200m. $200m equates to 46p per share, for Mkango, using the current TVR of 327m.

But the real upside comes post spin-out, when Mkango becomes a NdFeB recycler / manufacturer pureplay. That's when we start shooting for that >$1bn valuation, regardless of what happens to that passive equity stake in the NASDAQ-listed miner/separator.

Consider the valuation that USA Rare Earth (magnet production, but no recycling capability) just listed at (near $900m); and now consider Evolution Metals.

I genuinely think the combined HyProMag companies should be aiming for a >$1bn valuation (upon some form of NASDAQ listing), immediately.

The future has never been brighter for Mkango.