Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
Morning all, hope everyone is well.
There are a few new faces since I last posted here, so I thought I’d re-share my research on Avacta, for those who haven’t seen it.
Original investment thesis, 01/03/2020:
aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/avacta-group-investment-thesis-3.pdf
Update note on the Company’s work on COVID-19 testing, 15/04/2020:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/avacta-group-update.pdf
Frankly, I am astounded by the current share price. There seems to have been some concern about the placing shares hitting the market tomorrow – but there’s been no sell off since the GM results earlier so I think my suggestion on p.13 of my second note, about who the placees were, was correct. Any institutions who wanted to take some profits would likely have done so already, either by selling down their existing holdings (to then reload with the shares being issued tomorrow), or by selling their to-be-issued shares on extended settlement.
Whatever the case, it is largely irrelevant. The TVR is now 208m, and I can’t see that changing for the foreseeable. The Company has circa £11m net cash now, which is more than enough for global diagnostics players to be willing to collaborate.
The CEO could not have been clearer – there will be additional partnerships announced over the coming weeks. There will also be pre-orders of test in the millions by bodies such as PHE. I would also be surprised if there was not grant funding for Avacta, either from the UK gov of from a major charity such as the Gates Foundation.
If you read my research (esp. the bullet points on p.13 of my second note), all of these announcements should not come as a surprise, when they do come out. The wider market is however – in general – not well researched, and so will get excited and pile in when these announcements do steadily come one. The obvious move is, simply position in size before they do, and don’t be surprised WHEN they do.
I hold 2m shares at ~21p average, and don’t intend to sell any at all until we hit ~500p / ~£1bn mkt cap. My longer-term target is several billion pounds. The detailed rationale for this valuation is all in the first note. I am particularly excited by the TMAC platform, as I think it has the potential to generate drugs that will themselves generate tens of $billions in sales, each year.
Retrospectively, the main flaw of my research is underestimating just how many lateral flow tests that use Affimer-based reagents (Cytiva’s and those of other yet-to-be-named partners) could be sold globally. I estimated 1-3 billion per annum. Given the recent noise coming out of the US, I think it could be several multiples of my estimate.
1/2
Morning all, hope everyone's well.
The reason for the fall in the SP today is almost entirely a factor of the news out from each of GDR and ODX this morning.
The majority of UK punters treat the AIM as a casino. They're not going to differentiate between an antigen test (AVCT's), an antibody test (ODX's) and a PCR test (GDR's) for COVID-19. They just want to jump onto the one that they think will move the most in the next 24-48 hours.
Those researched here will know that AVCT not only has by far the most advanced product (and is in a far less crowded sub-market), but also has a total addressable market of many multiples, $-wise, greater than the other two.
It's a very easy buy and hold for me.
Hi all, hope everyone's well and enjoying the share price rise.
I've written an update note on #AVCT, focussing on its recently announced work on a point-of-care antigen test for #COVID19:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/avacta-group-update.pdf
This follows the Investment Thesis:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/avacta-group-investment-thesis-3.pdf
Needless to say, all the content is my opinion only! Hope it helps.
I've only had an account for an hour, but have just used the filter button already. It's fabulous - can't even say that poster's name pop up now. It's as if he doesn't exist. Clearly upset that AVCT's antigen test could take a major share out of the market for NCYT's test (which he evidently holds). I would strongly recommend it!
Anyway, back to AVCT for good - my feeling is that this will hit mainstream global news in the coming days. It could revolutionise the worldwide battle against COVID-19. This will in turn bring the company's core division - it's cancer therapeutics pipeline - to a global investor audience.
I am in contact with the CEO: the placing only happened as the Boohoo founder and his friend - the CEO of small-cap broker, Zeus - approached the company and asked it to take their money. £2m between them. Subsequently, the existing institutional holders showed their disappointment, and demanded that they be given pre-emption rights (i.e. so that they could stand their corners). Hence the additional raise of £3.75m, which came exclusively form the top 6-8 EXISTING institutional holders. There will be no flippers. At least, this is my understanding. It may be that one or more might just sell because of the rocketing share price - but I doubt it. They're invested for the cancer drugs pipeline, which could revolutionise the global cancer therapies market.
With regard to the COVID-19 antigen test: well, if it works, then it could also be revolutionary in itself – this time in the fight against the global pandemic. Many billions of these tests would be manufactured. Right now, AVCT and its partner are the only ones developing one (at least, they are the only ones to have publicly disclosed that they are).
Do not be confused between an antigen test and an antibody test. Antigen tests reveal whether the patient HAS coronavirus. Antibody tests reveal whether the patient HAD coronavirus. NCYT and others already have antigen tests in use – but they are PCR based (requires the use of a machine in the lab). The turnaround time is a couple of days.
Many companies are developing antibody tests, which take only ~10 mins to work (like a pregnancy test). Mologic in the UK is one such company.
However, NO ONE has developed an antigen test that comes in an antibody test format. That is what AVCT is doing. And that’s why it could be game changing, globally.
Research:
aimchaos . files . wordpress .com/2020/03/avacta-group-investment-thesis-3.pdf
For those new investors today in AVCT - hi there, and welcome. I've built up a 1% stake in the company in recent months, averaging 21p.
I have put together my notes in an essay format - it's a month old, and so out of date after today's news - but I am quite certain that it is the most detailed piece of research carried out on AVCT to date (I trained as an microcap equity analyst in the City, before being a micro-cap investment manager for a short period).
Hopefully it'll help any newcomers in researching the rest of the business.
Personally, whilst I'm delighted by today's news, which was pretty expected (see my Twitter feed, at MylesMcNulty), it pales in comparison to the potential of the rest of the business. If it could have a tag line, it would be:
"Chemotherapy, without the side effects." The company's cancer therapeutics pipeline has absolutely enormous implications for the global cancer therapy market.
I was targeting a billion pound market cap by end of 2021 - but with today's news and the interest it will draw to the company from across the globe... I think that perhaps even half that target could be reached by the end of this year. All my opinion, of course.
Anyway, hope the note helps:
aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/avacta-group-investment-thesis-3.pdf