Member Info for LWHL

Well done, theAccountant.

Nobody went hungry taking a profit, although I am holding out for 4 quid-ish for my first slice.

Then, all being well, looking at that sub 5 gap fill. Will take a view at that point, should it happen, naturally. GLA.

I am going to be tied up when the conference call is on, so if anyone is dialling in and would be so kind as to share some feedback, that would be appreciated.

Update looks fine to me. Does not look like anything that is going to turbo charge the SP though, IMO and indeed we might get another red day, depending on whether the market retains faith in the BOD and their suggested confidence in their plans to improve in those areas as highlighted in the RNS.

Some hefty inside buying would, as always, speak louder than words. So hopefully we see a few put their hands into their pockets in the coming days. GLA.

Yeah, just been reading those updates myself.

Fingers crossed we see similar here tomorrow...

Fair enough and you make some good points.

And we both share the same opinion regarding what we see as a price disconnect here.

Which hopefully we are going to be right about, sooner or later :) GLA.

To be clear, the update would have to be spectacular to achieve that kind of rapid gain (20% - 25%).

Especially in a name this size.

But if PI Winner is right, then this kind of price action might be feasible over the course of a few weeks perhaps. As long as the wider markets hold up, too. Lots of 'ifs'. Lol.

While long here, I am expecting a bit more pain before hopefully a return to sunnier uplands.

I will trade whatever scenario comes up. To a point, either will be fine for me. GLA.

Currently 418.05p. The 200 is 432.62p.

In which case, we will hopefully have a go at the 50 DMA early doors tomorrow. Perhaps even the 200.

It will need to be very strong to achieve that though IMO, and nothing wrong with exercising some caution so close to the update.

Herd behaviour offers opportunity, so be grateful for it :)

And if we do see further downside tomorrow, well, the herd will have been right, so take nothing for granted, is what I would proffer. GLA.

If the update is good and the forward guidance is positive, then yes, I think it will.

Especially if they show they are ahead of the curve, in terms of a potential government tax levy, in the CEO statement that tends to accompany such updates.

Might only get us back to the mid/high 60's range again, where we were before that annoying article, but that is of no consequence to me, ultimately.

What matters is the black and white specifics of company performance and forward guidance. For me, anyway.

Fingers crossed for that of course. Not looking further ahead at this point.

The short interest is small here, so I have no concerns about that, personally.

If it was several shorts, declared above the threshold, and we were for example in the top 5 or so of most shorted stocks, I could see the point.

Not much happening here right now, but agree, things might start hotting up nearer to news. GLA.

I would be pleasantly surprised to see a bounce before the low 70's now.

Not a lot of support at the current price, IMO.

Having said that, we are close to the 61.8% fib retrace price I think, so you might actually be right in your timing.

CBA to do the proper calculation, now this one is in the investment pot, lol.

I like those choices as well.

And I like the bull case thesis here enough to have some skin in the game, despite my thoughts on the shorter term direction of travel.

As to your prediction of what will happen after the next update: I will be delighted if it is so. GLA.

Companies tend to use BB's to boost EPS. Fundamentally to benefit senior management, not the general shareholder base.

Of all the times I have seen BB's, which span a lot of names, both here and across the Pond, I am struggling to think of many where BB's were started at low prices. Perhaps BATS, at the time of print? OSB too, maybe?

Anyway, like I said, I am fine with BB's, but if they are stockpiling a big cash moat, in advance of the Budget and possible recessionary trends, then they might look pretty smart a year from now, if certain things come to pass.

I certainly would not support cancelling the dividend to swap it with BB's. Nor would, I suspect, many of the current funds here. Some of whom would have to exit as they are here for divs, not just potential capital growth.

Lol. Nice. Mine was a reasonable bottle of cabinet sauvignon.

I think the lack of buyers is largely down to pre-Budget nerves, on top of the worry that the next update is going to follow the path of bad company news coming in threes. This being number two, if it comes to pass.

We discussed potential technical areas previously here.

A close below that price of 403-404, if indeed confirmed in the next couple of trading days to follow, would indicate possible 370's in the lead up to said update IMO.

Maybe low 380's is less aggressive. I often seem to be out by a couple of pennies here and there. Especially when it is a buy or sell order, lol.

I appreciate that this is not a number driven by technicals, but I think it would offer a support level driven by investor sentiment.

Obviously that projection goes out of the window if a currently unknown something pops up. Be it a black swan macro event, or company-specific. Which is not part of my thinking right now of course.

Or it might close below 403p today, drive back up tomorrow and have a decent run up to the update to the top of the current range. Hence not a confirmation from one daily close alone.

Always pleasant to share muses, while we wait for Mr Market to tell us what is actually going to happen in the next couple of weeks....GLA.

Just realised, I presume you meant if they had said it pre-election?

Perhaps. Not sure. I do think, had they included the changes to the WFA in their manifesto, then it would have been a hung parliament at best for them.

Throw in some of the other stuff they have done in the short time they have taken power, and I would imagine that most of their voters will already feel that they have been conned.

Not that I think many of them will vote differently next time. Because their fathers voted that way and their grandfathers before them etc. Sigh. Anyway, no more off topic stuff from me here today :) GLA.

I do not think people would understand, or accept, such a deceitful political move.

It will be bad enough if they break the pre-election manifesto promise and raise employer NICs (which they will try and convince people is not a broken promise, even though it would be a blatant lie).

Raising income taxes would be a lie even they would not try to pull off!

They need to have the balls, to coin your phrase, to cut public spending by 40% from current levels. Not raise any taxes.

But they do not, and they will not, so it is a moot point.

As to the point made by bobolove: perhaps they would rather keep back that potential cash for now instead?

Which I have no issue with. And would rather it went on further debt reduction at this stage, than BB's.

Get debt free, or as good as, then take a view, would be my preference.

Will be interesting to see if the government introduces a tax on BB's. I understand that the Dems across the Pond might be pondering increasing the current 1% tax on their country's BB programmes. We tend to copy many of their policies. Especially the rubbish ones, lol.

FWIW, I am against any tax on BB's, but that is neither here nor there.

And as a policy, it would be more palatable to the wider electorate than NICs or income tax hikes, by quite some margin. It would probably be quite popular with the masses, in fact.

Anyway, dividend date getting closer... GLA.

Hope you enjoyed your glass of wine, stupmy :)

Same boat, mate. Both in terms of glass(es) of wine and more specifically, sentiment in and approach to, this name at the present time. GLA.

Much less freedom and much more regulatory scrutiny/red tape/running costs, to list on the main market versus AIM.

Different (less favourable) tax stuff too, at the time of print. In a nutshell, and in answer to your question.

Ultimately, if the BOD can demonstrate that the last update was a one off blip, then the current listing is not going to stop this one from appreciating materially north of this range, IMO.

FWIW, I could see this being a nice bid target at some point, although not part of my thesis at all right now.

Happy to only have the same small book mark holding here until the next news though, because the jury is still out in my mind here. GLA.

Hopefully they are looking forward to buying more after the update :)

Even if they are fully loaded now, I am backing them to win the challenge. And thus we fellow longs will, too. AIMO & GLA.

Yep. Spot on, Finley1.

Anyone buying now, or recently, IMO is basically doing so on the basis that either the current CEO, or a new broom, will make this work effectively again in a short, or more likely, medium term period of time.

With the potential wild card of a bid prior to then.

In this latter scenario, I personally do not see it being at a price lower than at the time of print, so even if we see eg 270's tomorrow, should the market dislike the update, it is not going to faze me. Subject to the obvious caveats naturally.

Normalised P/E of 16 now though, but was higher when they gave the update which has led to this price drop.

Market confidence in their ability to deliver on future EPS currently in question.

And comparisons to other names in the same space do not generally offer much of a reliable metric to use as part of a thesis IMO. Based on having done so myself with a few names in totally different sectors over the years, and often seeing the disconnect last for years. A time frame that therefore invalidates the thesis, to my mind.