Member Info for LWHL

Try not to dwell on it, PFCvetran. My loss here was small, certainly compared to yours, but nobody likes taking losses and I also did not buy back in, either yesterday or today. And nor will I tomorrow, in all probability.

Here is how I framed this for myself and based on pretty much all the points you raised as well: If I bought back in, what would be my sale price, or do I simply hold until a conclusion, whatever that might be?

I could not determine a number for the first question, and because of the loss of trust I have in the BOD now, I decided that holding come what may, was not something that I would be willing to do here now either.

Throw in all the other red flags and material uncertainties that are well-documented, and even if this doubles again, I will only regret the hindsight missed trade, not the logic of the thesis that meant I kept out of it.

But as always, we alone are responsible for every buy and sell we make. Your post struck me as somewhat anguished (understandable!) hence my comment, which I hope you will take in the positive spirit in which it is intended. Along with it not intended to be advice of any kind, of course.

Meanwhile, well done to Mary and those others who braved this. I said I hoped it worked out for you guys and that remains the case.

Half is not most, troll. Judging by your posting history, I suspect that comes as a surprise to you. A free lesson. You are welcome :)

OK - now you are starting to annoy me. Are you deliberately trying to twist what I said, or are you simply stupid?

I felt that John came across well in the latest Telegraph (Matt Oliver) piece.

I do not think that I can copy and paste the entire paragraph from that article under copy right laws, but it is not long. Look at the one that starts 'despite this, Mr Wood said...'

I am not a bitter ex holder and I have already managed to recoup about half of what I lost here elsewhere so far. Not that that matters either. I do not depend on this income stream.

Disappointed, sure, but not bitter. And I also do not wish to see current holders lose money here, just because I have.

And furthermore I have never said that you, or anyone else still holding here, is making a mistake and that I am right either.

Time will tell either way. While I am bearish, for the reasons previously shared, it is an opinion, which may or may not turn out correct.

You, and others like your sort on these chat boards that are incapable of reasoned and civilised discussion and that throw accusations around when you do not like an alternative viewpoint, really diminish the quality of these platforms.

Anyway, this has turned into a de-rail, but I felt the need to correct your latest unfounded slight against me. I am a free speech absolutist, but am not going to let falsehoods against me go unchallenged.

It was reading John's comment in that article that reminded me of our exchange a few weeks ago. You might make hapless statements and accusations which you then forget about quickly, but some of us simply have better memories.

Certainly not throwing a tantrum, was just interested to see if you would acknowledge this, especially now that John has alluded to it as a potential scenario.

A scenario that you dismissed entirely out of hand a few weeks ago in said exchange.

I guess some people can handle nuanced discussion, different ideas and opinions, and some people cannot.

Anyway, more importantly, let's see what the finance deal looks like. Must be imminent. GLA.

Oh dear. A retort that I might expect from a hysterical teenager, but not from a grown up on an equity chat board.

OK, if you are unable to see it, then there is not much I can do (or be bothered to do) to change that. Will you accuse John of not understanding loans too, then? Lol.

Not that I care what you, or any other clowns that are unable to have civil discourse think, but no, I am not, nor ever have been, a writer for any newspaper. I am not short here, nor ever have been.

I want this company to do well and think it would be healthy to have three, rather than two, entities in this space.

As a reminder, what I now think, versus when I was a shareholder, is that the bear case (specifically the outcome for shareholders in terms of whatever funding arrangement is eventually sorted), is going to be negative for existing holders. Especially and not least in the current credit environment.

A positive IM verdict could change that thesis perhaps. I said a long time ago here that I expected John to have had something lined up in principle and in advance of a positive verdict. That opinion is unchanged.

Other things could positively impact proceedings too. And then I will reconsider my investment case view.

Might miss out of course, but right now IMO the bear thesis - for shareholders, not necessarily the employees, or the company as some form of going concern - is stronger than the bull thesis.

I find it baffling how some posters read so much narrative into my comments, rather than just taking them in the manner in which they are clearly intended. Some paranoid people around. Hey ho. GLA shareholders.

Good to see John contribute (having the chance to contribute, perhaps) to one of these articles. A potential steadying of the ship, so to speak.

But if HARL does get the 80% funding deal, then you will owe me an apology, Xenor.

Back in mid-May you accused me of not understanding how loans work and that it would not make sense.

That was in relation to my pondering whether the 100% deal was off the table; that they would get 80% like everyone else under that vehicle and that they would have to find the remaining 20% elsewhere.

Ultimately, it is all still speculation until John provides the full specifics, but hopefully they can secure funding on terms that are not too harsh on existing shareholders. GLA.

Maybe. Hopefully they dump a load more and crash the SP to the mid 80's in short order, so I can buy some more.

Anyway, there is now no short interest here over the disclosed threshold, so perhaps 'the market' is not so confident in that assertion. Would be an easy short otherwise, IMO. GLA while we wait to see what the next few months bring.

Do we know how many shares the retiring Roger has? Could be him, or Telious of course?

For me, this has changed nothing since my last post. He seems to have been a valuable resource for the company during his time and it is a shame (but understandable) that he wants to step back and fully enjoy retirement now (I think I am right in saying). His replacement looks to have a strong profile too though - and ultimately, it is the CEO and other executives, who are the main drivers of the success or failure of any enterprise.

Still, it would be nice to see Pamela purchase a decent slug of shares soon. Both to support the notion that she is likely to be a useful member here, as well as to show that she has faith in the direction of travel (that she is going to help with) too.

And that, in a nutshell, is the investment case for me in this one. Sure, other retailers could steal their lunch one day, but show me any stock market equity where a risk-free scenario exists.

Anyway, as long as the management team acts prudently, I think this one has decent upside potential - but time will tell. GLA.

Yeah, I am pretty sure it is now invalidated, lol. Will take a few more around 90p. Looks like some pretty strong support there, IMO.

If that does not hold, then mid 80's for a final tranche. Not a lot of support there that I can see, so will not be loading the boat further if that goes - but subject to the obvious stuff - not looking to cut and run either, should we see those lower numbers. Fundamentals at the time of print, etc. GLA.

FG: That is an opinion that some people hold (including me). Have a look at 'shadow stats' for an interesting perspective on the topic of 'real CPI'. IMO, real inflation is not actually quite as high as he suggests, but IMO it is absolutely higher than official data.

Anyway, slightly off topic, but I saw your post just now and thought it might be of some interest. GLA.

I would rather they continue to pay down debt and commence a buy back, rather than M&A at this point.

If/when they get debt-free and have a larger cash balance than now, then perhaps.

Increasing their online footprint (as long as done in a fiscally prudent fashion) would be sensible IMO.

I agree that it is not the type of business that should command a high multiple, but even allowing for the headwinds, the current price is cheap IMO.

The BOD just needs to continue to do a good job managing the key elements of their operation, as they seem to have done in the recent past.

I cannot see what acquisition would not potentially damage the investment case here at the time of print.

That is not to say there is not a hen's tooth out there somewhere - but I cannot think of one.

I could however see this name being a potentially appealing target to a larger retailer, but that is not part of my investment case here. GLA.

Well, whatever the risks associated with FRES, it is nothing compared to the excitement over at Barrick right now.

I nearly had a stroke when I saw it on my screen :) Now I just feel sad that my attempt to buy some more at those somewhat reduced prices did not fill, lol.

Probably a similar feeling for holders of Berkshire Hathaway and a few other biggies.

Would particularly like to see some decent voluntary inside buying (not just the obligatory buy, as per this RNS).

Might help to chomp through the II seller a bit quicker. Voluntary or 'voluntary'....either is fine by me :)

Neither of which changes my opinion here, just the potential time frame that I had hoped to slice some profits. All being well of course, and subject to the obvious caveats etc.

I would be happy enough to see buy backs, as long as debt reduction and cost controls remain the priority.

Anyway, in order to see the cup and handle play out, we need to get back above the 50 DMA soon.

IMO, we are close to a confirmed break at the time of print. Still long here, but short term, the TA bull/bear thesis is finely balanced right now. As far as I can read this stuff anyway. GLA.

Pre-pack talk is extremely premature here, to say the least.

I have made my opinions pretty clear in this name, but you make me sound like a perma-bull/ramper in comparison, John :)

See what the next update brings. AGM soon as well. GLA.

CC: I think Ashton's second point in his reply to you regarding Dundas is basically the long and short of it.

For many, the question is what would now be the catalyst (what is now different) for this event to occur, versus several years ago?

The proof in the pudding is always in the eating.

FWIW, I once anticipated that Dundas would be sold or a JV/royalties arrangement undertaken with a major, and the cash raised would be used to further Disko explorations and some of the other prospects. While also removing the need for further cash calls. That was certainly my hope. This was some years ago now.

I hope my comment will be taken in the spirit to which it is intended.

Increasingly, these chat boards seem to end up with accusations of underhand Machiavellian stuff, which is a great shame, because I firmly believe that the vast majority of posters are genuine and sharing their views for free and in their own time, for the good of this little community.

I personally welcome bull and bear comments on all the stocks I hold, including ex holdings like this one, which I peruse occasionally still.

But everyone is free to block/filter (or whatever it is called) any posters that they so wish. At the end of the day, life is short, so do what makes you happy and try to keep a sense of perspective at the same time, is the only advice I would give. GLA.

I am inclined to agree with the opinions of the late Charlie Munger on the topic of EBITA.

Anyway, the AGM is not far off. Any of you here going? It would be interesting to hear thoughts after the event. Especially if anyone chooses to ask some challenging questions of the BOD attendees.

So 118p ish your target then, if the cup and handle plays out?

I can see that myself...although full disclosure, it is also from a position of absolute confirmation bias :) GLA.

Absolutely agree with you, 100%.

I only have the 'main' tranche in this one at the time of print. My buy order plans for another side pot trade did not trigger and I am not going to chase it.

I also do not have a 'feel' for this one right now either, so that is holding me back too.

Good weekend to you too, mate.