Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Yes Citadel selling shares is clearing
is unfortunate that some useless fund manager chose to invest on this fantastic Mining opportunity at the height of vanadium price.
Hoping to make a quick profit, they where too slow to unload their shares when things turned sour and now they must be a pain in the buttocks for those company Directors that are heavily invested in this project.
Anyway as Warren Buffet said be greedy when other fear......

Right so ....if I yesterday mentioned that there is resistance on bush share price at this level, I get insults, go away talks and general indignation.
But it seems now that almost everyone on this board has been liberated from this taboo and can talk freely about some technical.

Hazbeen
I am listening and waiting for evidences discrediting FAR ceo, but without wanting to jump to conclusion, the very fact that you make accusations first and then need to do some research to see if what you claim is true, doesn't look good for your reputation Sir.
And yet again seems you have not learn the lesson....in your last posts you say...
"You are right Hambledom mining did reach production, but at what expense. The devil is in the detail"
referring to the period Mr. Bridgen was in charge of Hambledon .
The "devil is in the details" talks... at the moment just best describe what character you hare Hazbeen.
You claim to be invested in FAR but take every opportunity to come on this board and spread false information and negativity.
Are you bitter because unfortunately you bough FAR, full of expectation at much higher price?
Is it not this the reason why you are so negative?
Because my friend if that is not the case, I have to conclude that you are not invested here and your intentions are to deliberately discredit this company and Mr. Bridge, for some strange reasons.
You might be Mr. Bridgen divorced wife for what I know..lol

Please don't stop now with your researches, I am sure a bit more negativity from you, won't make you sell you presumed FAR shares. Awaiting evidence that discredit Mr. Bridgen ....
Hoping that nobody will take this to FAR attention for defamation in public domain.

Thank Jiff for the clarification.

...As you can understand there are many variables to factor in, including the fact that I am not expert and have no time to go trough all the correct procedures, considering that in the end $2 in vanadium price difference would completely transform the end result of any calculation...for the same reason I am not taking out from total revenue the initial capita employed to develop the mine or some £75 millions. As I said only £1 per kg V price increase would bring extra £128 millions profit so better simplify everything for what is worth....
What about sp target?
Another quick and simple calculation. Share prices are compared among other factors on PE (price earning ratios)
The number of PE is simply a multiple of a company net profit. A company with a PE of say...1 means that that company every year makes a profit as big as its market value, meaning that if I was to buy that company every year I would have 100% return.
In the mining sector the PE varies between companies depending of many factors, including geographical and political risks associated with the operation, type of commodities and trends, debit attached to any specific company and so on.
So again to simplify thing lets take in consideration a PE multiple of 15. By multiplying one year net profit 15 times we get to the market capital of a potential FAR mining Bala in to the future...
The sum gives £335millions is I got this right?
Now to get to the sp target we should simply divide the £335 millions by the number of shares issued and here things start to get even more difficult.
I am assuming that initial $101 million finance for phase one is totally funded with borrowing to simplify calculations. This means that at 7% charge there would be some £5.5 million going out in financial expenses.
So a NPV of £335 millions divided current number of shares gives exactly £1 sp.
Now I apologise for spelling mistakes and approximations in may areas of my reasoning, I am sure I got many things wrong.. for what is worth at least I tried to explain and go in more details than VSA report.
Is it realistic FAR at £1 for phase one development?
Let me tell you one more thing about this.
Miners sp price tend to rise steeply in predevelopment phases often exceeding their true value. This is because news flow like PFS, explorations, financing etc are al catalyst that push the sp higher .
Funny enough during development the sp of miner tend to decrease because in this phase there are attached risks more than expectations. Many things can go wrong during development even for the best companies and teams.
During production when the money start to come in the sp of miners stabilise for a longer period.....That is when FAR sp could be £1.
Good night

So my calculation (and please any polite comment is welcomed)
I am taking in consideration only the 23 million ore reserve we know and only at phase one production rate.
Right .....Bala Phase one investment $101 million . These are money going out...add to that all the money spent to produce the staff.
So 1 million tones ore per year gives a life on mine of 23 years
production of 5,600 tones at £10 per Kg. is £ 56 millions revenue x year
(note that life of mine is 23 years and price of vanadium is at historical lows, implying that with current trend in vanadium technologies is likely that revenue will be much higher but...)
So money coming in for the life of the project is 23 years by £56 millions equal £ 1.288 billions.
Now we need to take out money going out for development and production (capex and opex)
The VSA report state that cash cost of production would be $2.3 per lb or £4 per Kg.
This would mean that the Bala mine will operate at 60% profit rate but I don't believe that.
There is also a by-product production to factor in, but I am not sure when this will kick in and what profit will it bring, so I have left it out.
So let simplify and calculate a 40% net profit on total revenue of £ 1.288 billions and we come up with £515 million NPS from phase one development.

Hi Hazbeen
right I read the VSA research and although one can't disagree with them, the fact that their estimate on NPV and price target lacks a time frame , means that the paper used to write the research would be better used in a toilet.
But before I venture to express my opinion on numbers and price targets, I like to make make few comments on one of your posts, which opens full on with negativities on FAR.
You mentioned that there somewhere there was a time scale plan for the development of Bala and that it as not happened.
Please any link info were this is stated by the company? (if is to do with covid related delay please don't bother everybody knows that already)
You mentioned that beside delays in time scale probably Bala will not be developed at all. Wow...any concrete evidence in this regard? (please if is something to do with Nick divorce.. don't bother)
You state that you have deep mistrust of the Ceo...his past track record in Kazakhstan ect etc...any concrete evidence on that?
But please I need documented specific facts, not just voices like he left Hambledon mining, I need to know why and have concrete prove that that he was incompetent.
Because from my little research I done on that front I managed to find out that he was the founder of that once exploration mine and he managed to lead the company all the way to commissioning and gold production. Pl let me know more.
Lastly regard you negativity the right team in place....been the wrong one. Now I am not disputing the fact that you are able to judge an value if a mining team is the right one or not. What is difficult to comprehend is how can you compare a team or workers trained to carry out the current operation at FAR, with a future team that will be needed to build the mine infrastructure, mine the ground and produce the metal? Of course these are two completely different operations and of course there will be the need to employ new peoples.
Now the VSA research:
On NPV (net present value)
There is a formula to calculate NPV but to simplify everything let say that NPV is the sum of the profit an operation will produce in a given time frame. In other words total money coming in less total money going out (simple version)
As you can imagine been the time frame a very long period there are many variables that inevitably will result in almost all calculating of NPV inaccurate. Never than less when deciding if to go ahead with a project or and investment, there has to be a benchmark a starting point of reference to compare different kind of investible projects, to decide which is more profitable. (sorry to drag on)

Hi Hazbeen
this is a £35million market cap AIM share not a FTSE 100. Don't expect any mayor holder to buy shares in Far, what do you pretend that a fund manager will add FAR to their portfolio? Or maybe some clients of Goldman Sachs be advised to invest in FAR? Not going to happen mate. Citadel look to me well incompetent in their job, they probably bought at the height of vanadium price surely when FAR joined the AIM market, payed a lot of cash for the shares and now they need the money and have no time to wait. This is the only logical explanation......because the only thing that has changed since this company joined AIM market is vanadium price collapse and Covid19. If anyone is not able to understand this simple things, is here to deramp FAR with a hidden motive. I rather focus on production increasing 10 times by 2021, sales of by-products at higher price among other positives. Couldn't care less of Citadel .

Ok Hazbeen maybe is me paranoid with claiming that you belong to the Bush brigade, my apologies try to understand my feeling when some came to this board of recent ...Alfacomp and Libero to name few.
Nice reply will get back to you tomorrow as I am off to work right now.
Thanks for the VSA report I was wondering what it was, possibly have not read it yet.
Bye

By the way how is it going your investment in Bushveld Mineral?
Maybe that is where Twitter theory comes from right?
My world please someone save them poor souls invested in bush...now if there is no ramping going on in that board where else.
Today I ventured to say that technically there will be some resistance on the share price and everyone was against me.
Some resolved even to insults lol.
As soon as the sp drift a bit you get out the usual suspects with links and ramping .... what have we come to.

Hazbeen
you might be right ...one more reason to buy this shares. If Citadel had to resource to such conspiracy theory to unload their share now, when they could have done it at 70/60/50p etc it goes a long way to show how incompetent they are (not that I endorse you paranoid theory mate).
Couldn't it be that maybe after 8th October positive production RNS update, news has circulated around and it hit Tweeter as well?
I am saying so because honestly I don't even have Tweeter and yet I find my self here invested never than less.

On another note.. and without fancy calculations. It occur to me that vanadium pentoxide price was even lower than today on October 1019.
Yet Far sp back then was hovering around 20p. Since there has been many improvement on the opex side for this company and yet the market fail to notice this....So share price should reset on the technical and operation side. We need a day close above 12p not far away me think. Anyway better like this ..more time to top up on the low

Hazbeen please do I very welcome more knowledge and researches.

...one last thing
about profitability of bala mine in coming up with 208p potential sp I mention 12.5%.
Obviously its a joke, mining in Kazakhstan produce huge returns, for example Kaz Minerals copper producer, has margins of 56% gross and operating profit at some 30%.

Company presentation:

Only the first (of five known) ore-body has been explored to full depth, giving a reserve of 23 million tonnes, it is considered likely that after full exploration of the other ore-bodies, the Balasausqandiq deposit will be large enough to support an operation of up to 10 Mtpa of ore, producing about 55,000 tonnes of vanadium pentoxide per year. However, to avoid oversupply to the market, engineering risks, and to reduce shareholder dilution, FAR plans to develop more slowly, in steps that are more in tune with both the natural expansion of the vanadium market and at a pace which allows the later stages to be substantially financed from earnings of the earlier stages. This relatively slow development plan can be revised if there is a significant increase in demand, for example, for vanadium flow batteries for energy storage.
================================================
Now just a quick calculation of were does come from the 171p target price:
Potentially 55,000 tones of vanadium pentoxide per year at let say £10x Kg. gives £550 million annual revenue.
At 12.5% net profit makes some £68 million at a PE as low as 10 is a company with a market capital of £680 millions.
In case the operation is all financed by debits (which is not going to happen of course) still we have £680millions divided by current share issued equal a share price of 208 p.
You can imagine there are many variable to consider, most of all the price of vanadium and the fact that FAR will produce not only vanadium pentoxide but also much higher priced ferro vanadium and vanadium for batteries.
Anyway this is ramping and I try not to do that, future projections may or may not happen.
The two unconfutable facts that make me like FAR are production increasing almost 10 folds, cheep if not the cheapest mining project, and I am sure potential financiers will like that too.

Right although 171p broker target seems a fantasy, if is considered in a specific time frame could as well be achieved.
I am not going to calculate potential profit target and PE once Bala will be up and running....maybe latter, but I agree with you some wild claims without any calculated explanation on how and when are just that....wild.
Right rising the holly cash....how can this happen?!
For start it seems to me that there are out there traded company that command some billions shares in issue. If FAR was a 1 billion shares company right now, it would have not just the cash that YOU CLAIM are needed for for finalising production ramp up etc, but also the cash to complete phase 1 mining of bala.
...and now in you mind pops up the word dilution right Haz ?
It seems that you are using this word to scaremonger people, hoping that some don't know its meaning.
So what it means dilution ?
First of all if FAR was to rise 700 million shares tomorrow to get to 1 billion, is crucial to know at what price those shares would be issued, dilution of investor holding would happen only if those shares were to be issued lower than current price right? Is this going to happen? Citadel is moving on and the sp is rising, many other news catalyst point to sp increase (note I am not talking about sp targets).
That is one way to rise cash. Another is issuing bonds or borrowing money directly from banks. this investments will command a coupons that as long as is covered by cash flow will warrant the development of Bala mine, possibly the way is going to happen is a mix of those two.
You Haz insist on this question of Director rising cash but all info. point to the fact that they don't need to rise any cash at all.
Intention are the finish improvement work out of cash flow as stated by latest RNS, which bring me to the conclusion that ...again you are in this board only to deramp with the hope to redirect some investor to the other side....you know what I neannnnn
Not very successful according to current sp movement

Hazbeen
why you ask me I am not the company director, and although I have my theories right now can't be bothered to divulge it including the fact that I could be called ramper by you, (not that I care much but..)
You seems to pop up on this board every time there is a positive new/momentum and I would venture to say that your account exist exclusively to deramp other shares to the benefit of the competition ....you know what I meannnn.
Anyway please keep going I will be using you fluteless posts on here as a contrarian signal to top up. Thank you.

Not crying in to the wilderness, not seeking any particular attention. All started since I begin posting that bush sp is reaching resistance point remember????
It appear to me that most people here don't like to ear the truth and worst, don't have valid arguments or just arguments, when the conversation become a little more intellectual.
knutsfordnotary
Congratulation for the use of the word illiterate, by the way in your writing you are missing the pronouns?!
Is called grammar. Ohh sorry forgot I am filtered like the coffee.

Yes this share may not fly but to know that Citadel has reduce holdings from 13% to less than 5% is good news.
Less selling pressure going forward .....

So far none able to reply in a intellectual and constructive way...goes a long way to show the nature of these boards.
Ok then I give you the benefit of the doubt ...let say you have no idea of what I am writing about.