Member Info for LuckyLuciano

First day in the blue for a while would be nice to close above 330. Possibly one or two weeks consolidation for then a move higher. Indeed there will be dividend reinvested and a build up to March results with final dividends.
I am also invested in Champion Iron Ore which share price since last month, has moved 10% higher compare to Fxpo. It does look recent retrace is totally due to going ex-dividend. There are many levels a share can retrace due to the reason it has risen in the first place. Is reasonable to expect a share rising out of rumours and expectation to retrace back 50% and more, once news are out. In the case of FXPO recent rise is totally due to fundamental (not rumours) backed by tangible factors like more cash, more profit, more production and higher selling price, therefore I suspect any retrace will be bought by new investors. Finger crossed for a sp build up from here

Since last leg up from 279 I get a 50% fib retracement down to 315 ...hoping for a support.

Indeed forecasting 2021 profit is anyone guess....
It seems to me we kind of agree on 2020 numbers though...
For 2021 beside iron ore price we have to look at £/$ exchange how is going to pan out....
Everyone is talking about a super cycle on commodities, iron ore is needed almost in every kind of industry, which makes the price quite resilient and well supported, including beside China the reopening of many other economies world wide in 2021 and beyond.
Iron ore price will be fundamentally supported for the next few years , lets see what will happen with the 200$/t level, my prediction is that we will go past with ease...

So the average iron ore price for H1 was between 90 and 105 per tone depending on the grade for a profit of 250million $.
Looking at iron ore price graph during the H2 my guess is for an average of 150$/t and 950 million $ revenue. Total net profit in 2020 should come at 650million $ at £/$ 1.35 = £480million for a current PE of little more than 4.
At current iron ore price profit for 2021 will reach a cool £ 1 billion for a PE of 2.

Yes it looks they are taking advantage of these prices and selling more than what they produce... Until stock last of course.. Q1 will be interesting, possibly more than 3 million tones at today iron ore price will result in some $600 million revenue but the interesting thing is that margins will be much higher because any iron ore price hike goes straight in to net profit, so if in H1 we had 33% net profit margins, in H2 it should be already higher. But Q1 2021 should be unbelievable....

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp

Yes is difficult to interpret the sp support and resistance with fxpo. Previous resistance levels are so back dated that I am not so sure how much relevant they are these days... It looks like fxpo sp rise these days is faunding round numbers levels more of a catalist than any other technical anyses.... We had price consolidation around 200/300 and now 350 this sp movent is typical of some kind of investors that buy for short term ride upp in a low risk share. These investors have no price target based on fundamental but on arbitrary levels and often a round number is a selling level. I see on live trades many investors buying sometime 5/10 /20 shares only.. I suppose for some investing is just a funny thing to do...

Yes the problem is they have too much cash. At this rate end of next year they will have half of current market cap in cash. I am pleased that production expansion was executed to perfection it looks like they may achieve even higher production than 12 m/t. Great strategy to sell more than produced at these prices, will the new brocker rerate the sp to the right level? This should be above 10£ in my opinion.

Yes 351 been denied 2 times but forming a higher high sp level of support bodes well for end of the week and next.....
Iron ore price slightly up on the day ........again.

Another interesting valuation comparison can be done by comparing in a graph, FXPO sp with Champion Iron (CIA) sp.
By scrolling the time frame up and down is interesting to see how Fxpo sp has been lagging behind CIP until recently, when announcement was made of lifting share restriction of Zhevago share sale.
https://www.investing.com/equities/champion-iron-ltd-chart?cid=977857
Still even after recent rise with a 2020 profit around £500mil current PE of 4 and 2021 at much higher iron ore price and greater production volumes , this share has much to rise yet.

Yes thank OracleofOldham
it makes sense to put this cash to work in a very favourable environment, rather than paying out divi. My guess is that this divi policy was put in place to sustain the sp given the risk attached to Fxpo, or/and also because this could be the deliberate will of Mr. Zhevago , to support his expensive life stile....
Incidentally today I have taken a position in Champion Iron CA, similar operations of Fxpo but I would say more de-risked and doubling production in H1 2022. Just a small initial investment shame I didn't spot it a couple of months ago....

nice closing at 334 more gains to come.
Day close above 2017 on any time frame given the fundamentals and the momentum behind this share I imagine next resistance is all time higher at 449.07 day close on 28/04/2011.
It will probably retrace a bit at 390ish for then (if iron ore price are at these levels) go trough easily above 449. If iron ore price will come down then maybe 449 will prove strong resistance. Just my opinion not expert here...
But I think that at 12mil/t and 170$/t price this is a company with no debit and almost $1bilion profit for 2021. Make your own conclusion.

All miners are on fire today.

Fxpo is 50% of my portfolio and unless double in a week I will keep it till next divi and results. I have just discovered another iron ore comp. similar to fxpo and comparing sp and fundamentals to see if one or the other is undervalued....take a look at Chanpion Iron LTD.
Is fair to say that £5 and more given current iron ore prices is the minimum valuation for Fxpo but if you tell me that it will be achieved in 1 year time I don't think I will be waiting for that and may reduce my holding...lets see how fast this is going up.

For the technician out there, 2017 sp heights were hour candle 325.30, day candle 323.20 and highest for the day 9/12/2017 326.60 (which we have passed already).
Next should be a hour close above 325.30.....
possibly 350 will come earlier than production update

I would rather sell 35% of my capital gain and spend it on holiday at the Canaries...

less 35% tax for the Swiss.....

In my opinion rather than expansion FXPO needs a new project, a new copper or iron ore mine somewhere possibly not in Ukraine.
With $500 millions (less than 1 year net profit) with a new mine we could almost double production and current operation wouldn't be affected by more expansion work.
Beside iron ore there are many project in rare earth metals, lithium or vanadium that with less than $200millions could be brought to production.
Anyway in short I rather swap dividend for new project investments and I think too much dividends is one of the reasons fxpo sp is not where it should be by now.
Possibly this is how Zhevago likes to run the company....a cash cow to finance his other interests. Having some 50% of the company shares, without dividends he would be forced to sell shares to capitalise on capital gains. Pluss I like to know if he pays tax on his share divi....

A bit more info on tax refund...
Talks about bonds but possibly applies also for dividends.
http://ddm-group.ch/accounts/12633/files/288.pdf

...not just willing but super confident that Fxpo operation will never be affected by any geopolitical or Court actions.
Ukraine as seen its political fate change from filo wester governments to filo Russian and nothing happened to FXPO, even recent attempt to investigate on Doctor Zhivago have resulted in nothing to see here....Beside he is a small fish among Ukrainian oligarchs and also there are so many ....some still in politics that I find it difficult to believe anyone would be prosecuted, not withstanding the huge amount of tax FXPO pays to Ukraine gov.
The thing is everyone in Ukraine gov. has something to hide and is better is nobody goes down.