Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Fxpo sells some 35% iron to China, the rest is sold around the world so I suppose the $200/t for Chine export price is the max we can achieve. Still $200 plus $40 premium at today price is not bad.
On average right now tough we are probably making around $210/t. Today should be a green day , even Bloomberg tv yesterday was shouting about this base commodity cycle and how the supply/demand is unbalanced, lots of emphasis on copper but iron ore is up there as well.

Granto my hat to you soon you will have 10 times your investment, and correct no mm manipulations here, jus some profit taking. All healthy for fxpo sp. someone get out and other come in to support the price and up we go.

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
soon or late we will break 200....not today though.

Just a glitch Repression we are going to close in the green.....

Thanks for reply. So is true that some people may think to be able to move the market with 1 share....lol
I remember in the old days you would see very few 1 share trade going true, to be hones I think I also did it once out of boredom, but now wow....This morning there must have been dozens and dozens of 1-2-3 share trade, it must be zero commission trading side effect.

Hi anyone why on the live prices there are so many 1 share trading going trough?
In other words why some people buy/sell only 1 share?

..awaiting results in March showing a PE of 3.5 and a projected PE for 2021 at 2. Some 10% dividend or more depending the share price, no debit, expansion program, efficient operation and management executing every operation to perfection, becoming carbon free operation soon. Commodity in a up cycle that may last years to come.
Please tell me is there any other share in the investment universe like Fxpo?
Any doubt is going to double this year????
FTES 100 entry coming and then massive rerate past £10

Right now I have 40% Fxpo, 20% in Inovio (Covid vaccine) I am also awaiting a good re-entry price in Novovax, this share recently gave me more than 100% return in few days, I was out at $272, I consider it a (lucky) revenge for when back in April, I bought it at $17 to sell it at the same price out of panic.... Missed the re-entry at $250 out of greed if it will drop back around this price will buy again.
Had some luck also with SPACs, on my radar now is GIK Capital to buy Lightnins eMotors. Again there is a 100% return potential here....
Did also well with other US and Canadian Miners in REM, Lithium, Graphite and Renewables.
Right now though everything is getting too expensive and prices are becoming too volatile, hence Fxpo investment, indeed there is an argument here to go all in on Fxpo, go on holiday for a year and come back to see my retirement money doubled if not more....but for now I am hoping to squeeze out a bit more than 100% returns, finger crossed.

Good points robincherry1iclo hi,
the exchange rate is interesting I suppose what we save on costs with the Ukrainian currency we give back on valuation with the £ appreciating over $. Out of the equation we still get iron ore price going higher..
The Australian/China trade war is funny, the Chinese have embargo export of Australian coal to find out that it was getting more expensive same for coal even though they have been careful not to embargo coal from Australia. There is no way out for them after so much monopoly they had/have on many materials including REM and Polysilicon is about time they suffer a little.
Hi unvrkw
funny enough I am too reinvesting in Fxpo thanks to covid related shares, not proud of it though.
Indeed my commitment on Fxpo investment is in contrast with some opportunities which I think are still out there on the covid share sector. The difficulty is in deciding if to commit on something that you know, is surely going to double in medium terms with something that carrys more risk but would double in short term.
I have sometime this feeling not to push too much my luck, but I also recall moments when if I had pushed my luck more I would be retiring by now. I suppose for a balance portfolio one as to consider risk/returns together with how much to invest on each share. My current approach is to allocate more on Fxpo and less on some other shares, but I am still positive on covid shares where there is still high returns potential.
Another sector that possibly is ripe for growth are cyclicals in particular transportation and truism. Boris Jonson on Monday will make speech on reopening the economy and there will be some hints on start travelling again, something to do with vaccine passport.
I wouldn't be surprise is the likes of TUI and IAG will go up Monday coming, if I am going to buy some will be a short term very speculative bet.

Yes among other things that support iron ore price there is always and most likely miners coming short of production for what ever reason that would be..... On Covid19 been here to stay or not is debatable. It is a corona virus like flu and influenza has not gone away, moreover sars/covid is much more contagious end is mutating quite fast. In the other hand there as never been so much money and effort around the world to compact a virus, more over we have managed develop new biotecnologie on vaccines that could became a game change. Also on therapeutic there is a lot of solutions in the pipeline about to come out.... If we had managed to lock down the world Chinese style from the bigin, maybe there wouldn't have been any new mutations, but then again, how knows haw many mutations there where already out there and more importantly, this wouldn't have stopped a new contagion from Chinese wet markets and the likes. So it looks the only way out is vaccination, its a race between biotecnologies and virus mutations. The other alternative is shaggin more like rabbits, but I think we are already doing that.

unvrkw
on the economic bounce I have some doubt...
Imo we will have a sharp uptick in spending ens of the year, followed by a back to reality mild depression. Until governments spending don't replace those jobs permanently lost by covid (which by the way is here to stay) the economy will be anaemic. China may be do much better than us, they proved to be able to isolate and contain covid very efficiently and any new variant will be easily contained till new vaccines are produced.
Regardless of macro economics though iron ore has proved to be in a super cycle, I mean if we had a recent price rise during covid and lock down you can imagine what will happen when covid will be contained.
Another support for commodity price should be the dollar which is becoming fiat currency, next Biden round of spending will be some $1.9 billions and I suspect there will be more to come.
India is planning to invest hugely in rail way, lost of iron going there too.
The thing is there is not enough iron production out there, I was reading that the Chinese are desperate to start any iron mine project out there even a lower grade loss making project, thing is it takes 4/5 years to start on from scratch.
Fxpo price depend on the time frame obviously, somebody on this board mentioned what will be the sp in 2/3 years time. Is not a bad thinking ......next production expansion phase for Fxpo will be fully financed by profit I suppose, little or no debit and no share dilution add to that a higher iron ore price and we could talk about £15/20 per share in 3 year ?!
Right now though going back to my comparison with Champion Iron Ore, MY thinking is that if Champion last 2020 quarter had, $174 realised iron ore price, for a current PE of 4.2, Fxpo for the same metric (last quarter was 3 m/t production/sale at $174 plus premium ???) lets say $210?? 3 m/t x 210= $630milx 4 quarters= 2.52 bil $. Now FXPO had 33% net profit margins when price of iron was at $110/t shall we say 45% now? 45% of 2.52 bill $ = $1.134bil/£= 840 net profit current PE of 2.4
Meaning that to be valued same as Champion Iron Ore we should have a share price almost double the current £3.50.
Of course theses calculation are based on lots of suppositions and come rough data, especially regarding what will be FXPO net profit margin in the last quarter and the realised iron ore price for Fxpo.
Then we also have to consider that Champions has debit Fxpo don't and pays bigger dividends, but on the other hand Champion operate in a politically more stable jurisdiction than Fxpo.
Still the comparison is striking , almost double the price is not little difference.
I am not here for the dividend this is why I bother to do this research. If I had little investment on Fxpo probably I would put this share in the bottom draw and reopen it in 3 years time, that would be the best course of action, but I am a bit restless (with mixed results) when it comes to investing.

I know is Saturday and I should be doing other things.....

But I was comparing 2 very similar Mining companies in trying to understand how much undervalued is FXPO.
Take a look at Champion Iron Ore (Canada)...I mentioned this company before.
Single operation/mine like Fxpo, producing 66%Fe concentrate at the rate of some 8MT per year.
Beside a valuation and profitability comparison, I found some interesting information on iron ore realised price.
From the data available I am looking at Champion last quarter numbers end September 2020, compared with Fxpo H1 number end June 2020.
One striking difference is the profitability of these two companies. In H1/2020 Fxpo made 33% net profit of revenue, with iron ore price at around $110/T.
Champion made the same rate of profitability in the last 3 months of 2020 Oct/Dec. with iron ore realised price at $174/T.
Champion is currently trading at PE of 4.2 if we consider the last quarter results, but has few hundred million in debit.
At the same $174 realised iron ore price and 33% net profit, FXPO would be trading at the same PE 4.2.
Beside FXPO having no debit compare to Champion, if Champion made $174/T for 66%Fe concentrate how much would have made Fxpo in the last 3 month of 2020 for premium pellet?
Also if Fxpo net margins where 33% in H1 with iron ore at $110 how much higher are now?
The only interesting information out of this is that Champion made $174/T in the last quarter 2020, this would imply some $200plus for Fxpo, if this is correct it is much higher than what I thought.
Also at a constant H1 cost of production, with iron ore at say $200/T, Fxpo net profit margins should be much higher than 33% possibly even at 50%.

This is a bit better looks a close at 352 for the day. Mining sector back on fire, Antofagasta +7.5% and new high for FTSE 350 Mining.
I suppose we can only build from here.

Yes SR123
So last year results of $400mil net profit came at sp £120 in march 2020. The sp moved to a range of 165/200 for an average PE of 3.5
This year results will see a net profit at around $650mil (guestimate are welcome) for a current PE of 4.
It seems to me that factors like clearing of debits, lifting of restrictions on Zhevago to sale shares, increased production/profitability and iron ore price going forward , have hardly been priced in.
Q1/2021 should produce a net profit similar to the first half of 2020, who knows if iron ore breaks above all time higher where is going to go......
Is true that higher prices normally curb demand, but what is the alternative to iron? If developing Countries want to invest on infrastructures they need iron, and to be honest many developed Country also do need huge investments on infrastructures.
Taking all this in to account and giving a modest PE of 5 for projected 2021 I am guessing doubling in price this year.

Had a look at Rio Tinto preliminary numbers for 2020, it is now trading at a PE of 8.5 with net debt of some $664 mil.
Is positive that all miners so far are in the green, FXPO needs a day candle closing above 343.60 to hopefully move higher.

I have invented a new game:
To place an order to buy FXPO with broker and then switch web page to FXPO live price, before my order is gone trough.

...is it coming?
Yesterday high were sold out and today again if not more. Hmmmmmmm
Main indexes on retreat.

Hi playingtheodds lol
I suppose that is the 1 million dollar question, price/demand ratio.
I my view we will see a new high for iron ore is written all over the place, but how much is more complex matter...
Is true that higher price in theory could cut demand but again, what is higher price

Inelastic:
What Is Inelastic?
Inelastic is an economic term referring to the static quantity of a good or service when its price changes. Inelastic means that when the price goes up, consumers’ buying habits stay about the same, and when the price goes down, consumers’ buying habits also remain unchanged.
======
I got this explanation from the web, but have to disagree. Possibly because inelastic is a world very similar to my Italian vocabulary but at first it seemed to me that was referring to the supply side of the market.

correction ..FTSE 350 MINING all time higher since 2011.

Good rise today on the back of Rio Tinto results and big dividend pay out.