Member Info for LuckyLuciano

https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-price-goes-parabolic-after-cyclone-warning/

Definitely up and away with Fxpo.
Just wondering any pull back from 300/320 how relevant it would be.....with Q4/Full year result update coming out 1st/2nd week of January.

unvrkw
It looks no deal to me. UK can't afford to lose complete sovereignty, the fishery is a smoke screen and the Europeans know that. What's the point in keeping territorial waters for yourself if you can't sell the fish you catch because of tariffs. But the sticking point is Britain been able to do what they like with matters of law in finance and business. This is the only way UK can compete with EU and they don't want to lose this advantage (possibly is the very reason some Tory back benchers instigated Brexit).
If Fxpo was trading in USD I would buy them.

Today another high fort 62% and 65% iron ore price.

In my opinion no deal Brexit will have more an effect on currencies rather than stock market. The UK index is full of companies exposed to US Dollar revenue, perversely a devaluation of Sterling will make profits in Dollar look much better, which again bodes well for Fxpo. Moreover the vaccine and reopening of economies should support also other cyclical sectors like travel, retail etc.
There is so much money floating around looking for growth, with interest rate below zero the stock market is set (already for a decade now) to keep growing to infinity.
The game charge for Fxpo is the removing of the stigma as Russian/Ukraine company, this is happening albeit slowly.
One would hope that after the Kyiv Court dropping of Share sale restriction on Kostyantin Zhevago, more news will flow to re-establish a good reputation for the company. Perversely if Mr. Kostyantin Zhevago would start to sell his share maybe to a investment entity I guess the sp would skyrocket. Thing is the guy is not so stupid to sell at theses prices.

unvrkw I wasn't doubting the dividend
is just that because I am in for sp increase rather than dividend
I take little notice of when dividends are declared.

Too many positives going on for Fxpo right now...its almost unbelievable.
Even with some uncertainty in the main market, any small drop on sp get bought up.
Beside massive profits and cost reduction due to increased production from next year,
we have debt coming down to zero and the removal of Court order restriction...(which is not a small matter)
With Fxpo investors have been used to value the company at ridiculous PE, but in reality the market prices the majority of miners above 10 PE even for company with large debit.
Just a PE of 5 would give Fxpo sp of £8 for 2021 production.....why not?
Early January we get trading update for Q4 should be an interesting reading full of positives, including news on increased production and possibly more dividend. Looking forward to that.

It got to 251 but i was too slow to react and in the end not really worth for a meaningful average down.
Iron ore price to a new high this week is supporting well Fxpo sp.
No doubt Brexit is a factor in the market, but I am looking also at USA approval of next financial package to be agreed hopefully before Christmas.
Either way fundamentals for Fxpo remain super positive.

Yes is holding well...not sure if we are going to take out the 300ish level before Christmas but then again couldn't rise at recent rate for much longer. Looking for a top up below 250.

Good point Tornadotony
this is why I usually do my own research and then eventually ask info for confirmation, but definitely won't rely solely in anyone advise to go all in in a stock. Definitely a good advise for those new to invest, or those that think research is not needed.
Have been investing for almost 30 years, won and lost lots of money lol.... but even when losing the one thing that kept me going was the determination to at least learn something out of my loss.
Have to say these days the market is much more forgiving, kind of give you the second chance...no surprise though considering the huge amount of cash government have release in to the market.

Was there a pre feasibility study out?
I read it somewhere but lost the link.....
I am comparing Pensana with another Aussi REM developer, the only very positive I see in Penasana is the fact that the Angola wealth fund is participating on the project which should bode well for all the permitting and authorization once the BFS is out.

Many thanks for the info.

Hi I am looking to invest in the REM miners and doing some research.
Can anyone please give me a quick round up on Pensana?
In particular the CEO talks about next year building the mine, when Bankable feasibility study is still undergoing....
What is the NPV of the Longonjo project? Is 100% Pensana? Forecasted production , what is the grarde of reserve/resources?
Is the project fully funded?
Would appreciate some info. Thanks

Indeed I am doing quite a bit of research these days on miners and metals, including rare hearth metals, basic metals and the one in between...nickel and vanadium.
The market out there is incongruent and mispriced imo.
For example Lithium miners are reaching astronomical valuation and yet Lithium price is at historic lows.
Vanadium and Nickel both used in iron ore/steel production are going in opposite direction and potentially both are also used in batteries and renewables.
Then there is the conundrum of light and heavy RHM, everybody is screaming that we are going to run out of it, but in the end the price is mainly driven by countries policies and politics (very volatile situation)
Overall it seems to me that the market has anticipated every possible trend for the next year and in some cases beyond.
In many cases prices of some miners have trebled and quadrupled in the last 3/4 months and often it doesn't justify the price of the metal they produce.
The good thing about iron ore is that it is needed in almost every industry therefore price should be little volatile, moreover is not a metal controlled by a government/country or few miners. I am very positive on iron ore price for the future, there is going to be lots of government cash to be spent on heavy infrastructures. At zero rate of interest governments are going to print like never before to create jobs and modernise the economies.

You are correct Maksym
not sure if in 2011 FXPO was producing any iron ore but yes that's correct.

https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-prices-are-going-ballistic/

Considering that China has almost the monopoly of all the strategic metals out there
is a nice place to be invested in one of the metal China doesn't have but can not do without.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-price-bands-narrow-in-year-of-contrasts/

I am guessing $700 M. or £530 M for a PE less than 3 at today sp.

I was just trying to do that...
SP is getting close to all time high and many (me included) will wonder if is now time to sale.
On a technical view this is the case...320/300 is not just a resistance point it is an all time high, and one has to expect some resistance/consolidation.
The question is will the price pull back for then stay lower for long or will it briefly consolidate there to pull away to new heights?
My analyses is a mix of technical and fundamentals and is an approach I use almost always for mid/long term investment decisions.
To start I am looking at FXPO sp all time high back in November 2017 and look at the same time the Iron ore 62% price (as benchmark price) to my surprise back then iron ore was 60$/t, less than half of today price.
Than I consider that back then the Kostyantin Zhevago saga of tax evasion was yet not out on the maker price.
I am now looking at the sp graph of FXPO on the 30 November this year, the day sp broke out from a channel price range.
I consider the news of Kyiv Court lifting of share restriction a massive game changer for FXPO, this rns came together with q3 production report. Note that even if q3 production report was somehow disappointing the sp start to rise till these days....
We all knew that q3 production was going to less for this quarter, but one would expect that with sp at the top of the channel it can only go back down.
In my opinion the market is rerating FXPO and pricing in the fact that Kostyantin Zhevago tax evasion is out of the way.
Moreover we have to factor in Iron ore price rising, this is driven by China economy been immune to covid 19 and in mid/long terms we will have also the reopening of the rest of the world economies which probably will push iron ore price even higher....
Another fundamental factor to price in is FXPO production increase going forward and finally debit reduction compare to when FXPO sp reached all time high back in November 2017.
All these considerations are to support the idea that this time FXPO sp will reach new height beyond 330p.
How much to value FXPO ?
Will it get to a modest PE of 10?
That would imply more than double today sp, no debits and still paying a nice 5/6% dividends.
I suppose time will tell, ne thing I am almost sure though is that current sp rise is relentless and looks more a rerating rather than iron ore price on the up. DYOR

Wow I wouldn't sleep at night if I had 77k shares on one company....then again this is why I lost so many opportunity to make lots of cash very quickly.
This is why my de risk against drop was to place a stop loss, in the end we close highest at 61,60 which correspond with
1Million shares buy at close. Should bode well for Monday.....