RE: ⭐ Realistic valuation: 60p–100p near-term ⭐ 150p+ medium-term with execution27 Nov 2025 11:18
PP come on 🤦♂️, You’re valuing Eco like it’s one Albanian pilot line selling raw panels, which is why your numbers collapse. That’s not the business anymore.
1️⃣ Eco isn’t a panel seller
The €1.8m interims included panels, slabs, stairs, structures, installation + partner-funded work.
You can’t value the whole company off a €42.50/sqm panel assumption. That’s just wrong.
2️⃣ Your JV maths is fantasy
Eco doesn’t earn “40% of 40%”.
In a JV it shares manufacturing margin + project margin and in several countries owns the lines.
Your entire argument is built on the wrong model.
3️⃣ You’re using ONE pilot line to value a GLOBAL rollout
Eco now has factories in:
• Chile
• Senegal
• Sudan (partner-funded)
• Albania
• Kosovo
• Canada (planned)
Minimum 2 lines per country, 6 homes/day per line.
Your model = “42,000 sqm Albania forever.”
Reality = industrial scale across 5 countries now, 8+ next.
4️⃣ PE multiples don’t apply mid-rollout
You don’t value a scaling manufacturer off half-year pilot revenue.
You value it off contracts, capacity, throughput and rollout.
5️⃣ The 2024 risk section is outdated
Since then: Chile €420m, Senegal JV, Sudan 2 lines, Canada entry, TÜV/EN/ISO suite, global line deployment.
Still calling it “just a story stock” is ignoring reality.
Bottom line:
Your maths isn’t “tough,” it’s based on the wrong company.
Eco today is multi-country, multi-line, multi-revenue, partner-funded and scaling.
If you model THAT — not the Albanian pilot — a £100m+ valuation isn’t far-fetched at all.