Member Info for LuckyLaurie

🤣🤣🤦‍♂️ Ad hominem noted. Still waiting for an actual counter-argument.

If calling numbers “slop” is the extent of the critique, that usually means there isn’t one. DFS-stage asset, EU-designated strategic project, funded to completion, state partner (ČEZ), and EMH sitting on ~49% , yet the whole company trades at ~£40m mcap.

That disconnect isn’t a “ramping bubble”, it’s basic valuation maths.

If you disagree, fine, point out:

• where the DFS cash flows are wrong

• why EU strategic funding doesn’t apply

• why Cinovec deserves a sub-£50m look-through value

Otherwise it’s just noise. Personal insults don’t move NAVs.

DFS lands → re-rate follows.

70p–£1.00 on DFS isn’t optimism, it’s arithmetic.

Over to you… or feel free to keep shadow-boxing AI instead of the numbers.

Building on Fingers’ funding analysis, the valuation gap really comes into focus once you anchor everything to DFS economics.

Cinovec carries a DFS NPV of ~€1.9bn. Even applying a very conservative 10–15% risk factor, that still implies €190–285m value. Against EMH’s ~£40m market cap, the disconnect is hard to ignore.

What matters, as Fingers outlined, is how it’s funded:

   •   Non-dilutive EU grants and strategic support reduce equity dilution

   •   Better debt structures lower WACC

   •   DFS moves EMH from “optional” to bankable strategic asset

At that point, valuation stops being theoretical. On a DFS-backed basis, a 70p–£1.00/share range is entirely reasonable without heroic assumptions, simply reflecting preserved equity and reduced funding risk.

That’s why DFS is the inflection: not hype, just numbers, structure, and funding terms finally lining up.

Peak BB comedy: a 6-post account complaining about “spam” because someone posted analysis instead of a slogan.

Fingers laid out clearly signposted scenarios on EU funding that are directly relevant to EMH, a CRMA-aligned strategic lithium asset where non-dilutive funding could materially reduce equity dilution and lift valuation. That’s contribution, not spamming.

Crying “AI” and moaning about length isn’t a counter-argument. If you disagree with the funding ranges or implications, explain why. Otherwise it just looks like discomfort with the upside case, and the filter button exists for a reason.

A small UK Government 🇬🇧 contract say ~£250 Million could do it …… 🤷🏼‍♀️

Leaky Leaky 🫢

Difficult to get a quote to buy ……

Smelly 🤦‍♂️ You’re recycling the same misinformation you’ve posted for months, and it’s still wrong.

1️⃣ The JTF deadline is submission, not approval.

This has been clarified repeatedly. JTF requires the EIA to be submitted within the window , not fully approved. Approval always takes months. If approval were required inside the window, no JTF mining project in Europe would qualify. You’re inventing rules that don’t exist.

2️⃣ EU grants are always reimbursed against verified spend.

This is how CEF, Innovation Fund, Battery Booster and almost every EU capex programme works. It’s standard financial governance, not a sign of “mistrust”. Trying to spin a universal EU rule into an EMH-specific insult is just dishonest.

3️⃣ Cinovec just received one of the largest EU critical minerals grant commitments because it is a strategic asset and EMH keeps delivering its technical requirements.

If the EU saw EMH as “untrustworthy”, they would not commit to fund 35% of capex. Brussels does not pump money into companies it thinks can’t deliver.

4️⃣ The DFS is being lodged this month. The EIA is being lodged this month.

Keith stated both clearly. Your long-running narrative of “they’ll never do it” collapses the moment those land, which is exactly why you’re trying to spin deadlines before they arrive.

5️⃣ Your Rock Stock reference is misleading.

They questioned timelines, not the viability of the project. Their investment decision has zero bearing on CEZ, the EU, or project financing.

6️⃣ Your criticism of the EIA submission date shows zero understanding of permitting.

Submission windows are statutory. Companies submit inside the allowed window, that’s how the process works everywhere in the EU.

Here are the actual facts:

• EU funding up to 35% of Cinovec’s capex

• DFS this month

• EIA this month

• Final permitting next

• Largest hard-rock lithium resource in the EU

• CEZ + EU backing increasing, not shrinking

Trying to turn one of Europe’s strongest critical-minerals endorsements into a negative is desperate. The market will trust the EU’s judgment long before it trusts a troll on a message board.

Anyone who watched the Keith Coughlan interview and still doesn’t understand what’s unfolding here needs to watch it again. December isn’t just another month for EMH, it’s the month the EU effectively declares Cinovec a strategic asset and accelerates it into development.

We’ve just secured one of the largest critical minerals grant commitments in the entire European Union. A pure grant, covering up to 35% of all approved capex. Nothing repayable, no strings attached. This immediately strips out a huge portion of funding risk and sends the clearest signal yet: the EU wants Cinovec built.

Keith spells it out: the “quantum” matters, but the commitment is the real headline. Cinovec is by far the EU’s largest conventional hard-rock lithium resource, even more critical now that Rio Tinto’s Serbian project is shelved. Europe has a supply problem, and Cinovec is now the centrepiece of the solution.

And now comes the real pivot. Keith confirms the DFS will be lodged this month, followed by the Environmental Impact Assessment also this month. Two milestone de-risking events landing back-to-back. Once the EIA process starts, we move directly into final permitting, and Keith openly states that both financing and offtake discussions will now intensify across Europe thanks to the EU grant + DFS.

Macro is finally turning too. Lithium sentiment rising, prices stabilising, Europe reacting to the US locking down its own supply. Cinovec moves from “important” to urgent.

And yet the market still has EMH sitting around 19–21p. That is now wildly out of step with fundamentals and strategic positioning. Based on the grant, resource scale, geopolitical context and imminent DFS/EIA, the realistic near-term range is 70p–90p. Once DFS and EIA are formally lodged, making Cinovec a fully defined, partially EU-funded, near-permitted project, the fair value range moves into £1.20–£1.60.

Put it together:

• Massive EU grant covering a third of capex

• DFS this month

• EIA this month

• Final permitting next

• Offtake + financing newsflow to follow

• EU’s largest lithium resource

• Lithium sentiment recovering

• SP stuck at 19–21p despite a clear re-rating pathway

EMH has never before had a cleaner, clearer, EU-backed development runway. The current valuation simply won’t survive what’s coming this month.

These are realistic worse case funding ranges available for the Cinovec Project which is regarded as High Priority

I don’t think he said by 9am 😂😂

You’re absolutely correct makemoremoney 🤦‍♂️ , I messed up my numbers there 🙈 as I meant to say market cap of £250M - £300M which would be more accurate as a comparison to peers.

That said, the valuation logic :

– Cinovec is already supported by €360m from the Czech state

– It is an EU CRMA Strategic Project

– It is eligible for EIB loans (€200–300m)

– Eligible for Battery Booster (€150–300m)

– Eligible for InvestEU guarantees (€100–200m)

– Eligible for Innovation Fund (€50–100m)

– OEMs are now legally required by the CRMA amendment to diversify away from China

– EU stockpiling, joint purchasing and price-support mechanisms are incoming

– DFS close, FID targeted 2026, ČEZ backing in place

On a peer-comparison basis (Keliber, Vulcan, Savannah etc.), a £250M - £300M valuation today is still conservative.

And using what those peers were valued at pre-FID, the pre-dilution range for EMH sits closer to £250m–£300m, which equates to around £1.20–£1.45 per share.

The long and short of it remains unchanged:

EMH at £48m is wildly mispriced for the scale, backing and strategic necessity of Cinovec.

1️⃣ European & Global Lithium Peers vs EMH (Plain-Text Comparison)

Keliber (Finland):

– Smaller resource than Cinovec

– Received €500m+ funding

– Valuation before construction: €800m+

– EMH today: £48m

Vulcan Energy (Germany):

– More complex extraction

– Received €250m EIB loan

– Market cap historically: €300–700m

– EMH today: £48m

Savannah Resources (Portugal):

– Smaller Portuguese lithium project

– Pre-DFS valuations: £150–250m

– EMH today: £48m

Atlantic Lithium (Ghana):

– Not EU-backed, not strategic

– Market cap multiple of EMH

– EMH today: £48m

Now compare that to Cinovec:

• Largest hard-rock lithium deposit in Europe

• Official EU Strategic Project under CRMA

• €360m Czech government support already secured

• Eligible for EIB loans (€200–300m)

• Eligible for Battery Booster (€150–300m)

• Eligible for InvestEU guarantees (€100–200m)

• Eligible for Innovation Fund (€50–100m)

• Eligible for EBRD financing (€50–175m)

• OEM diversification from China now legally required

• EU stockpiling & joint purchasing incoming

• Price-floor / price-support mechanisms being built

• DFS almost complete

• FID targeted 2026

• ČEZ as a major state-backed partner

And EMH’s entire market cap is £48 million.

That is not a discount.

That is a complete mispricing.

2️⃣ Why EMH’s valuation should already be much higher

**Because EMH is valued like a tiny explorer…

But is actually a 49% owner of a multi-billion-euro strategic asset backed by two governments and the EU.**

Even before new EU interventions, Cinovec’s previous PFS-level economics already indicated:

• NPV in the billions

• Strong IRR

• Long mine life

• Strategic importance

Now overlay the new facts:

✔ €360m confirmed government support

✔ EU needs new domestic lithium supply (64% dependency still in 2030)

✔ OEMs now legally forced to diversify

✔ €3bn CRM Funding Hub opening

✔ €2bn/year EIB lending to CRMs

✔ Battery Booster €300m/project

✔ Stockpiling + joint purchasing = demand protection

✔ Price-floor mechanisms incoming

✔ Strategic Project fast-track status

A project with this setup cannot be worth £48m at the equity level.

It is financially irrational.

3️⃣ Updated Share Price View — Now Using £48m Market Cap

**Current MCAP: £48m

Fair value TODAY: £120m–£180m

Share Price Range: 120p–180p**

Bullish but realistic (pre-dilution): £2.00–£2.40

Why?

Because EMH’s 49% of Cinovec — at DFS stage, €360m funded, EU-backed — is not a £48 million asset.

It is a hundreds-of-millions asset even before FID or offtakes.

Here is the combined structure:

Mechanism Estimated Range

Czech strategic funding (confirmed): €360m

EIB loan: €200–300m

Battery Booster: €150–300m

InvestEU guarantees (enabling private debt): €100–200m

guarantees → €200–400m debt

Innovation Fund: €50–100m

EBRD (equity + debt): €50–175m

Czech/EU Cohesion/STEP: €50–100m

CRMs Centre price-support / stockpiling: €70–190m equivalent

OEM prepayment/offtake financing: €100–200m

➤ Combined TOTAL FUNDING POTENTIAL:

€1.03 BILLION – €1.72 BILLION

➤ Already secured:

€360 million

➤ Likely EU/EIB/EBRD stack (without OEMs):

€550m – €1.1bn

➤ With OEM prepayment:

€650m – €1.3bn+

This fully covers Cinovec’s capex envelope, and then some.

🔥 EMH/ČEZ may ultimately contribute minimal dilutional equity because the capital stack can realistically be built with:

• State backing

• EU grants

• EIB long-tenor loans

• EU guarantees

• EBRD strategic equity

• OEM prepayments

• Price-floor mechanisms

• Stockpile-backed demand

This is as close to risk-free as a mining project gets in Europe.

Cinovec has already secured ~€360m in national/EU-backed funding, and now Brussels has launched the most aggressive policy support package Europe has ever created for critical raw materials. €3bn in new CRM funding, €2bn/year EIB lending, a Critical Raw Materials Centre, stockpiling, joint purchasing, permitting fast-track and even a lithium price floor mechanism are being deployed specifically to bring Strategic Projects, like Cinovec , into production by 2029.

On top of that, EU OEMs are now legally required to diversify away from China, meaning long-term offtake agreements with EU lithium producers are no longer optional, they are mandatory for compliance. Cinovec is the largest and most advanced EU hard-rock lithium deposit and is already funded, aligned with Czech national strategy, and sits at the centre of EU energy security.

The market is still pricing EMH like a small-cap explorer, when the EU is treating Cinovec like essential infrastructure. The valuation disconnect is extraordinary.

Exactly, this was never going to be wrapped up in a single meeting. The fact they're even sitting down for long, detailed talks is progress in itself.

Negotiations always move in steps, and each round keeps the door open to a real breakthrough.

Yesterday's meeting wasn't a solution, but it was movement and that's what matters at this stage.

🧵 What just happened

   •   Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow yesterday for about five hours.

The Kremlin said no compromise was reached, especially on the key issue of territory. Russia still insists on control over occupied areas, which remains unacceptable to Kyiv. 

   •   Reports describe the talks as “productive but difficult”: some elements of the US-Ukraine plan were discussed, but Moscow called parts of it “unacceptable,” particularly anything that implies giving up land it currently holds. 

   •   Zelensky is in Europe (e.g. Paris) talking with Macron and others about a “lasting peace,” stressing that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is the biggest challenge in the negotiations. 

   •   Meanwhile, fighting continues on the ground (including around Pokrovsk and attacks on Russia’s oil “shadow fleet”), which underlines that we are nowhere near a ceasefire yet. 

🧾 Bottom line

   •   No deal, no ceasefire agreed.

   •   Talks are ongoing, and the US-Ukraine proposal is still alive, but territory and security guarantees remain total sticking points.

   •   Most analysts are framing the latest round as: useful to keep diplomacy alive, but no real breakthrough.

Greenmachine67, you forgot Earache !

Oh dear gsdsitgs 🤦‍♂️, Worried about an em dash? Meanwhile CEZ, Prague and Brussels are pushing a critical-raw-materials project worth billions. You’re watching punctuation, the market is watching Cinovec.

🤦‍♂️ Skelly, you’ve been posting the same tired horror stories for so many years it’s hard to tell if you’re stuck in 2018 or just emotionally attached to being wrong. You clearly sold, you clearly regret it, and now you want everyone else to stay trapped in your misery. Time to grow a pair and deal with the present instead of replaying the past.

• €360m Czech state support is real — published by the Ministry of Industry & Trade for the CEZ/Geomet JV.

If you still think governments hand out hundreds of millions for “maybe never” projects, that’s on you.

• EIA by year-end is a condition, not a miracle.

Geomet has worked on it with regional authorities for 18+ months. But sure — keep pretending you know more than a €30bn state utility.

• Your ‘DFS merry-go-round’ line is ancient.

The DFS has been substantially complete since 2019. What’s happening now is CEZ-driven optimisation and downstream integration — real engineering, not BB fantasy timelines.

• ‘Paid for it three times’? Absolute folklore.

Updating flowsheets and integrating new partner requirements is called development. Only on AIM forums is progress mistaken for conspiracy.

• ‘Zero cash’? Wrong.

EMH’s corporate runway covers permitting. CEZ funds the heavy lifting. EMH is not building a mine alone — that’s the entire point of the JV.

• Dilution? Of course — every multi-billion-euro mine raises at PF.

You shout it like it’s a scandal, when it just proves you’ve never followed a real project. And no one raises PF at a £40m mcap — the share price will be multiples higher long before PF even gets discussed.

So by all means keep recycling decade-old talking points if it helps you cope — but don’t pretend it’s analysis.

The project has moved on. CEZ has moved on. The Czech state has moved on.

The only thing still stuck in 2016 is you.