RE: Shareholding14 Jan 2025 08:42
Hi Buydipsellrepeat,
A very interesting question indeed, although the last bit of it sadly doesn't make sense to me, I'm guessing you meant to say a heavily discounted price of say 0.1p or even 0.05p per share instead.
To answer it, you have to look at the factual bits (the bits we know) & then the bits we currently know very little about!
I did a forward cash position posting on the 1st December & another on the 5th December on the proper definition of "Going Concern" from an auditors point of view (if you want to read them in detail).
The company had just under £4.8M in the bank at 31st December. It's also said its cash burn rate is now £8M per year or effectively £2M per quarter.
If we assume there is no revenue generated in Q4 & therefore none of that turns into cash in Q1 2025 (to build in a margin of safety). Then the company has enough cash in the bank to last it until at least the end of July (£2.8M 31/03, £0.8M 30/06).
How much further that cash runway last's depends entirely on how much revenue Mirriad is able to generate between now & the end of April (given a 3 month delay to turn revenue into actual cash).
I currently doubt it will be a great deal, since there is a lot happening in the background but very little is actually live right now & it will take time to be adopted etc. They will get some money from Europe in Q1, but not enough to see them through to the end of August & I think it will be May before we see a meaningful amount of revenue coming in from Programmatic services.
So yes I'm probably 90% certain (at this moment in time) that they are going to need to get additional cash for the business around early June to see us through to break even on a month to month basis.
Your next question will then be how much & from where ?
Well if you do the basic maths £8m less £4.8M in the bank, means they need another £3.2M to last them until the end of 2025 with zero revenue coming in.
If they've no revenue coming in no-one is going to provide them with more cash are they, the business model (even adjusted as there doing right now) is a failure & so is the business end of story.
So how much revenue are they going to get, well if you look at the current data & what's been said, Europe may bring in £0.5M net in 2025 (from the current sources).
That takes you down to a cash shortfall of £2.7M max.
So you'd be expecting them to raise around £2 - 2.5M on that basis.
However we have no visibility at all as to what's going on in the background with regard to the multiple actions / agreements that are hinted at or that 2phev's has uncovered.
Shopify, Canela App, LaNation/TSR, BenLabs, 2 Majors & 2 major ad groups. Plus the rest of TDMA & the Diverse Marketplace.
Throw Universal Ads into the mix as well.
In other words there is massive news potential in the meantime from all of the above.
There is also Growthfronts end of Feb, Newfronts end apr/may & Upfronts about the 2nd we
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