Member Info for LordWM

Why don't we just say that we'll have a party/drink/smoke IF we hit £2 PS?

Even Bagzzz has to come.

I'd guess a SP of between £0.30 - £0.50 for Rudyard North, up to £1 or more including the Southern Dome when Reserves confirmed.

Double that (£1.50 - £2.00 if Ingomar Charles has as much Helium as Rudyard, I believe they're looking at a significant sized column with elevated Helium similar to Rudyard (ie higher levels than the non-commercial Ingomar Armsden which wasn't commercial, hopefully due to a trapped resevoir in the Charles/Flathead).

And more if Rudyard reserves are increased after more survey work (which seems likely). And more if the realised Helium sale price is above $500 (which seems likely).

And who knows how much extra if there's commercial Hydrogen in Ingomar Flathead. Anyone have experience of this/could hazard a guess?

Plus who knows how much more if they acquire further licences, which they've suggested they intend to do...

It’s been a frustrate with Atome, they were due to have FID confirmed and ground broken at the end of 2023.

I’ve added a bit at the lower prices, especially after Olivier spent £675k on 900,000 shares at 75p in October. With the BOD holding such big stakes their interests are aligned. I don’t think there’s risk of them delisting as some have suggested, they’ve said a few times that being a transparent listed business helps with government engagement.

I’ve seen with many UK listed businesses that the market doesn’t value potential like in the US. I’m assuming that there will be a slow rise up towards first revenue (assume 2027), but from then onwards it will throw off cash, especially when pipeline projects are added. For me this is one to tuck away for many (many) multiples in a few years time.

Interested in other thoughts re the likely market reaction to the FID?

I can see little or no downside risk to stop them generating $20m annually by the end of the year.

But I can see huge potential upside.

I sold other stocks to buy more Hex at 14.7 just before the bell on Friday.

Another interesting factor that's not being talked about much is the helium price.

At Rudyard we have CONFIRMED RESERVES of 355/Mcf of Helium in the northern dome, and with the forecasted Helium in the Southern Dome, a total of $220m net revenue (Profit), based on a Helium price of $500/Mcf.

The Ingomar Charles formation could double this figure IF they make a commercial discovery, which looks likely based on high gas shows during the initial drill.

Slide 13 highlights Helim price growth of 20% CAGR (average annual growth over the past decade). With industrial demand increasing, especially in the US with chip onshoring, this would likely continue this price growth at the very least.

Also, Helium is so critical that slide 13 highlights two instances where industial users paid more than double this to guarantee supply:

- US Defence Logistics Agency bulk helium pricing at $1,080/Mcf (2023)

- NASA signed five year for 1.16Bcf helium supply contract at $918/Mcf (Nov ‘22)

So not only could the RESERVES potentially double with the Rudyard Southern dome & Ingomar, resulting in $220 Net Revenue ($20m pa), but this number could then be doubled if the team strike good supply deals with industrial end users (something they've stated they intend to do).

So we could have $440m of net revenue, or approx $40m net revenue annually, excluding any upside from a potential Hydrogen discovery in the Ingomar Flathead.

That could mean, for example, $30m annually in dividend payments (approx 0.15pps annually), leaving $10m free cash annually to pursue other MMA and developemnt activity,

WOW!!

I've just sold some Atalaya to buy more HEX at 14.7p!

Newsflow for Armsden will be rapid, I don't see any downside risk as they get to production.

The upside from Ingomar could be absolutely incredible.

These points make me very happy:

Cash-flow at $15-25m/pa to support organic growth and dividends

Development of the USA’s first large-scale geological hydrogen project at Ingomar

Expand pipeline through M&A and securing new leases

Conclusion - Slides 9-10:

Helix has consistently delivered throughout 2024…

• Helix has seen excellent price performance and significant volumes, average trading over £500,000 per day

• Proven ability to execute on deals demonstrated by the acquisition of Rudyard for $250,000 paid 60% in shares

• Helix has delivered operationally with 2 wells drilled in only 8 months since IPO

• Discovery at Rudyard, flow tested, with reserves in-situ ready for production • Industry connections allowed purchase of suitable PSA processing plant for only $500k

… And will continue to deliver in 2025

• Fully-funded rapid commercialisation of helium at Rudyard

• Cash-flow at $15-25m/pa to support organic growth and dividends

• Development of the USA’s first large-scale geological hydrogen project at Ingomar

• Expand pipeline through M&A and securing new leases

• Grow a disruptive helium and hydrogen company to supply USA market and beyond • Create significant value for long-term shareholders

https://www.helixexploration.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/

If you look at the timeline on slide 8:

3 production wells by teh half year

5 production wells by the year end

The SP will absolutely rocket by Christmas, it's incredible that it's not reacting right now.

Chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/02/Helix-Exploration-Corporate-Deck-Feb25-v2.pdf

Looks like we've broken £4 again, onwards and upwards!

I wonder if inclusion on indexes will give us a significant bump. Any views on this appreciated.

What about that holiday Bagzzz?

I think we'd be prepared to have a whip round to help you go away for a couple of months, if your top 10% earnings won't cover it.

"No #Gold here at #ATYM #Atalaya but there's a lorra #Copper - heading towards £6 now in response to #Copper's breakout move"

£6 would be very tasty. The CEO said that this will be a £1b company some day. As they bring further resources online to ramp production and with the copper bull run we're all expecting due to the long term structural shortage of copper globally, this could come sooner rather than later.

GLA

A great post BNN, many thanks.

I've said this a few times but I've committed as much as I can to Hex, very happy to hold and see the story develop.

You love it Bagzzz. Remmeber, sit on your hands until 18th April and you'll have doubled your money (at least).

As a top 10% earner, why not take some time away, unplug from the angst of daily SP movement. Go on holiday or something, then come back on 18th April and see where we are.

Another LI post, hopefully includes the final touches of a finance package to get moving.

It's been a busy week for ATOME in South America! 🎉

Here’s a quick recap of what the team have been up to! 🌍 📸

Our CEO, Olivier Mussat, and Head of Fertilizer & Ammonia Markets, Terje Bakken, were at the CRU and Argus Media Fertilizer Latino Americano Conference 2025 in sunny Rio, Brazil, connecting with industry leaders, with Terje taking part in a panel discussion titled “The outlook for green ammonia, ammonia projects, and new production technologies” 🟢

Olivier & Terje, together with the project’s offtake partner, held a series of key meetings in Asuncion, Paraguay alongside our local team (James Spalding and Juan Pablo Nogués).

As announced yesterday, the ATOME team had successful meetings with senior Ministerial representatives of the Paraguay government and international funding institutions, including at Paraguay’s Ministerio de Industria y Comercio de Paraguay and our IDB Invest partners, where support was reinforced on the back of recent progress and the project’s strong development impact 🌱🤝

The trip also included a visit to our site in Villeta where ATOME intends to construct its major green fertiliser facility. This was shortly followed by a trip to the incredible 14GW Itaipu Dam Itaipu Binacional, which provides the Villeta Project with the constant renewable baseload power it needs to supply the region with cost-effective, efficient and low-carbon fertiliser! 🌎✨

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/atomeplc_fla-sustainability-greenfertiliser-activity-7293176644268113921-_32n?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

Anyone know the reason for the spike?

It’s reassuring to hear we’re on track and should have FID in Feb by the sound of it. All looking good, wish my average was at the current SP but plenty of time for upside as the project progresses.

I've no idea why the price is so depressed, I suspect it's the low shares in issue which limits appeal to larger holders and bigger macro factors/sentiment.

But one thing's for sure, when they hit first revenue and pay a dividend that won't be ignored (could be late 2025 or likely 2026, depending on other M&A activities). But revenue and a de-risked path to dividends should be enough (surely we're there now right?).

What are the risks we don't get there?

- Regulatory risk - Low/No Risk

- Reserves have been incorrectly modelled - audited by independent 3rd party - Low Risk

- Execution risk - it seems straight forward to extract from the gas mix they have, processing plant part-acquired already - Very Low risk

- Funding risk - They're fully funded and have one producing well ready to go, with more wells funded - No risk

- Helium price crash - It's in short supply with increasing demand, with few producers - No risk

- Lack of offtake - We need visability here, but they seem confident about their ability to sell directly to end users, achieving a higher price - Low risk.

- WW3 or asteroid strike? - Probably the biggest risk right now.

Have I missed anything?

We also have the almost certainty of increased reserves at Rudyard and the huge Ingomar potential which could more than double Rudyard reserves, and add Hydrogen to the mix.

I can't remmeber a stock with such potential for explosive SP growth in the very short term, It seems a gift at this price.

Added more at 0.15079, I need to stop this, can't hold myself back!

GLA, suspect we're going to be rich soon.

The delay is frustrating. They must be close or would likely deliver a general 'holding' update.

I'm still committed and holding, too scared to add more even at these lower prices. Fingers crossed we get a FID soon.

Everything seems in place to start building once FID confirmed.

The ecomomics of Villeta alone are incredible - $110m revenue, $70m EBITDA, consistently for 30+ years, should have a very good multiplier. If they announce a PPA for the second (larger) & third project, the finance should be a lot easier to arrange and the revenue they'll throw off (in 5 years time) is incredible - $230m EBITDA! At an 8x multiple thats $1.8b market cap (today we're £21m...

We need this first project to be confirmed.