Member Info for LordWM

The IDB meet on Tuesday, suspect will be a formality, we could see an announcement straight after.

I wonder if the project level equity funding is all lined up and the FID will be announced as soon as the debt funding (IDB) part is confirmed.

Anyone have experience of this?

Thanks.

https://www.idbinvest.org/en/projects/atome-first-green-hydrogen-fertilizer-export-project-paraguay

I didn't see this posted on here yesterday, may have missed it.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1061629/helix-exploration-ceo-bo-sears-discusses-latest-test-work-results-from-ingomar-dome-project-1061629.html

I've just re-watched the full interview with DM from last week. He commented that the flow rates for Armsden were strong, but it isn't the primary target.

It's obviously disappointing that we haven't had a hit with teh first zone tested, but my understanding is that there could be a good trap in the lower Charles or Flathead, which is ideal.

I'm a bit confused as I thought they were testing from the bottom up, but seem to have tested the highest zone first?

Time for more patience. I don't think I have the balls to add more at this point, but certainly not selling, happy to hold and see what happens.

Everything crossed for all holders.

I’d be surprised if it slides much more with a £22m mkt cap. I’ve added more today.

We know they’re testing both sites, all day every day. We’ll have news soon.

Have a great weekend all, we could hear any time.

Lots of data a difficult to read, but all looks very positive to me.

When I add in other projects (assume online from 2031), here are the group earnings and SP forecast including Viletta, Yguazu and Costa Rica. Assume the same finance terms, extrapolated based on MW output of each site.

This is based on very conservative factors, full debt repayment and assumed Atome retain 60% of project level income across all sites.

EPS £ SP £

2027 0.24 1.95

2028 0.27 2.17

2029 0.30 2.39

2030 0.33 2.62

2031 1.06 8.49

2032 1.17 9.37

2033 1.28 10.27

2034 1.40 11.19

2035 1.52 12.12

2036 1.64 13.09

2037 1.76 14.07

2038 1.88 15.06

2039 2.01 16.08

2040 2.15 17.17

2041 2.28 18.23

2042 2.41 19.32

2043 2.55 20.43

2044 2.69 21.56

OK, I've modelled earnings for Villeta based on $270m loan with 20 year payback at SOFR rate (which is high currently, likely will come down).

CAN Inflation 1.03

Share Capital 48,515,297

Multiple 8

$ to £ 1.40

MW 145.00

Villeta only

NP $ Interest $ EBITDA $ EBITDA £ EPS £ SP £

2027 42,000,000 25,478,550 16,521,450 11,801,036 0.24 1.95

2028 43,260,000 24,862,950 18,397,050 13,140,750 0.27 2.17

2029 44,557,800 24,247,350 20,310,450 14,507,464 0.30 2.39

2030 45,894,534 23,631,750 22,262,784 15,901,989 0.33 2.62

2031 47,271,370 23,016,150 24,255,220 17,325,157 0.36 2.86

2032 48,689,511 22,400,550 26,288,961 18,777,829 0.39 3.10

2033 50,150,196 21,784,950 28,365,246 20,260,890 0.42 3.34

2034 51,654,702 21,169,350 30,485,352 21,775,252 0.45 3.59

2035 53,204,343 20,553,750 32,650,593 23,321,852 0.48 3.85

2036 54,800,474 19,784,250 35,016,224 25,011,588 0.52 4.12

2037 56,444,488 19,168,650 37,275,838 26,625,599 0.55 4.39

2038 58,137,823 18,553,050 39,584,773 28,274,838 0.58 4.66

2039 59,881,957 17,937,450 41,944,507 29,960,362 0.62 4.94

2040 61,678,416 17,321,850 44,356,566 31,683,261 0.65 5.22

2041 63,528,768 16,706,250 46,822,518 33,444,656 0.69 5.51

2042 65,434,631 16,090,650 49,343,981 35,245,701 0.73 5.81

2043 67,397,670 15,475,050 51,922,620 37,087,586 0.76 6.12

2044 69,419,601 14,859,450 54,560,151 38,971,536 0.80 6.43

Stopped here, you should get where it goes.

That’s correct, but ex any finance repayment.

I tried copilot ai to ask the usual terms of an IDB loan to factor this in, but it’s not working. Will try over the weekend and update numbers, see how it will affect cash flow.

Again, would welcome scrutiny when people have time.

So why's the SP so low?

- Until ther FID is confirmed and published, there's finance risk and uncertainty around project level dilution.

- There's then operations/delivery risk (building Villetta), but Atome leadership seem very experienced and are keen to state how they're mitigating this (world class engineering partners, no technology risk, etc).

- Then we have a build period before first revenue, 2-3 years off.

Assuming we get there, we will have a 24/7/365 facility producing green CAN, with strong and predictable cashflow, and no commercial risk (selling a much needed product, that's greener than alternatives/in high demand, at a competative price to a local market).

We'll also have a repidly advancing and de-risked (being follow on sites) pipeline of further copy/paste facilities.

For me, this is very much one to buy now and tuck away for a big future payout.

Here are my calculations assuming 50% project level dilution and BEFORE any loan repayments, which will affect income.

Also assumes:

- $ to £ exchange rate of 1.4, so pessimistic.

- No gree premium income (green CAN premium or Carbon Credits income - €68.5 per ton of CO2 - icing on the cake)

- Assumes 8x valuation multiple, Olivier says 12 is normal as stated in prev post.

- Note that timescales have probably shifted by 1 year for Villetta and the rest of the pipeline.

Villeta Earnings 2027 $ $70,000,000

Group Earnings 2030 $ $252,665,424

Share of Earnings 50% (Project level)

Shares in Issue 48,515,297

Earnings Multiplier 8

$-£ Exchange Rate 1.4

Todays SP £0.53

For Villeta only:

Earnings 2027 $ $35,000,000

Earnings 2027 £ £25,000,000

Est.Share Price £4.12

% of todays SP 778%

For Group/all projects:

Earnings 2030 $ $126,332,712

Earnings 2030 £ £90,237,651

Est.Share Price £14.88

% of todays SP 2808%

Again, there will be debt to be repaid, but please share views on these figures.

Slide 15 has illustrative financials stating $70m EBITDA from first full years production from Villeta only.

https://wp-atome-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/09/250724-ATOME-Investor-Presentation-2024-v.fin4_.-0924.pdf

That excludes any green premium for the product or any carbon credit income, which they describe in presentations as the ‘icing on the cake’.

They’re using part project level equity funding, and part debt funding, so there will be a long term loan to repay and we’re unsure until the FID is published what % dilution there will be (at the project level) and how much income will go to ATOME group. But a significant part will be funded by debt so I’m guessing 50% perhaps.

They’ve also said an 8x multiple is normal in this sector, and I think 11x or 12x for a green premium. Olivier said that in this presentation

https://www.atomeplc.com/proactive-one2one-investor-forum/

On page 15 in the first link above it also states anticipated EBITDA for pipeline projects.

I’ve tried to model this, and although first cash if 2027 I think, it should be many multiples of the current SP.

And as CEO you don’t spend £750k of your own money at £0.65 if you’re not confident that things are on track.

If you're prertty sure as I am, based on announcements, presentations & interviews so far, that they have a significant commercial discovery, this will strengthen with every piece of hard data they release.

All being well, we'll have many announcements over the coming days and weeks, as guided by DM yesterday in the Proactive Investors interview.

I added more on 13th Nov (dropped immediately after) and yesterday (dropped immediately after).

I'm not worried because I don't day trade. I feel certain this will be a multiple of where they are now by the New Year, and will steadily rise further as they get closer to production and first revenue at the end of 2025/early 2026 and beyond.

As always DYOR.

Good luck everyone.

I've just added again, thats the last time I promise (myself).

Back to work now.

following my post earlier, i guess the solid gold grillz will have to go on hold, and we'll all be downgrading to an elderly ****erel for christmas instead.

a strage reaction to this excellent news. i'm guessing that liquidity if so restricted institutions won't give it a second glance, impossible to pick up the volume they'd need to make it worthwhile without rocketing the price. i'm sure that bigger players (hnw, family offices, smaller funds) will start buying when the dust settles and they realise the data.

that makes it incredible for private investors for whom modest holdings can be worth while/life changing.

current mktcap of £25m is insane, i added more this morning making this 4% of my total portfolio, very high risk for a tiny stock like this, but i'm confident we'll be on multiples of this when more data comes out, development funding is put in place (they've said they'll prioritise debt funding - no significant dilution) and we have a roadmap to first revenue.

fingers crossed for all holders.

We’ll see shortly whether we’re all ordering a gold teeth grill that rappers wear, a G5 or just a modestly large turkey for Christmas.

Happy Christmas everyone!

With the IDB funding meeting just before Christmas I’m guessing Jan before we get it. Strong momentum so confident it will happen, but it’s been a delaying factor.

However, once funding completed I’m guessing we’ll have a load of action and regular construction media, plus they’ll focus on pipeline projects.