Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Got to be a bit wary of free ad blockers though, as some may contain malware or collect your data.

Kaeren - can't speak for ValJu, but luckily they don't sing (or say) anything to me using Chrome.

I still get the pesky pop ups, but can live with that. Almost gives you a sense of power seeing them on mute!

You couldn't really say Linda #1 was delayed though, as they never gave an estimated timetable.

So it's different this time. And yes, I suspect they ARE drilling deeper. But until we're updated, some will remain slightly on edge and I doubt the SP will make significant further progress. Shouldn't be long before we're fully in the picture though.

BigBiteNow - yes the timetable is within previous drills. But not within the estimated 10-14 days stated by Bo on 23 June.

I think this is what's causing a few nervous tics, given how well the company's updated us on developments previously.

Personally, I'm sticking to my holding & am not selling any. But I might have been tempted to add, had it not been for the above.

I guess we'll get to know soon enough!

Course, some may think the only novel insight is that IMM’s a slippery snake oil sales force.

Me, I couldn’t possibly comment.

Aquae - I understand that.

Presumably H&B are focusing on actually making money for once, seeing as they haven’t for years.

So if they couldn’t get the Slimexpert sums to add up, they may gave had to slim that range down. In which case it would beg the question whether Opti was charging too much for its ingredient or if it was some other costly part of the formulation.

Agreed, this is all speculation. But they would’t discontinue a profitable range that was selling well. So something didn’t work with it.

Aquae - you do realise I was highlighting the bottom line loss, which has nothing to do with gross profit.

H&B is loss-making. End of.

A £61.8m loss to be precise for YE Sept 2024.

Aquae - only half right!

www.cityam.com/holland-barrett-huge-losses-continue-despite-sales-surge/

Martinu - I suspect H&B's Opti sales had been in decline for some time already. As is H&B itself.

They either don't seem to have understood how to market the products. Or (less likely) they tried but they simply weren't a good fit with their customers.

Tiburn - sure. I'm just surprised at Bo's 8th July tweet that "Drilling continues on schedule at Inez #1", given that there's clearly a REVISED schedule now.

We're past the 10-14 days he initially estimated, so why isn't he pointing this out?

As I said before, drilling commencement was RNS'd at 7.00am UK time on 23rd June. So drilling must have started no later than 22nd June UK time.

That means we're on Day 18 now, which even allowing for a short pause over 4th July w/e (assuming there even was one) is more than 14 days.

I'm not trying to suggest anything sinister. Could be quite the opposite in fact, if the drill's run smoothly to date & they've simply decided to go deeper. But given Bo's excellent comms record, I just wonder why he's not filling us in on revised timelines.....

Maybe_tomorrow - your Inez timetable may prove right.

Interesting that on 23 June they RNS'd:

"Drilling is expected to take circa 10 - 14 days to complete, following which the Company will move immediately to wire-line logging and flow testing. The Company will keep the market updated as drilling completes".

Even if you assume they downed tools briefly over the July 4th holiday, that timetable has already been exceeded slightly. The RNS was issued at 7.00am on 23rd, so drilling must have started no later than 22nd June.

As Swissydog's link showed, their public file for Inez had a proposed depth of 6500 feet. So presumably they're either now going deeper than originally planned (assuming this is permitted) or the drill's taking slightly longer than anticipated. Either way, Bo tweeted that "Drilling continues on schedule at Inez #1" which - though reassuring - seems odd, as it appears to have already slightly exceeded his initial 10-14 day estimate.

Vendric - never any harm in banking a profit.

A firm timetable would have helped. But with various milestones having to be hit along the way, I guess it’s harder to pin down precisely.

Only thing we currently know is 31 12 25 being a “hard stop” date.

I don’t see the economic situation changing significantly between now & year end (least, not in the UK). So I don’t think that’ll be a deal buster. And if Trump introduced executive orders that could harm the US economy longer term, all the more reason for FirstCash to want to diversify abroad.

I’ll be hanging onto my shares. The market’s only pricing in a c. 1.5% chance of the deal falling through (650p deal price v. around 640p currently). So the general consensus is that this is a done deal, but you can never be certain until it’s official!

ID78 - no worries & thanks for clarifying.

That 2.5x multiple would have been wrong in April too though (unless you mean April 24 & probably even then!).

Bullsit - the feeling's mutual. No point in engaging any further with you. Filtered

If we take ID78's 4x revenue valuation (which may or may not be realistic), we'd need about $55m annual revenues to reach Trek's £1 SP target.

So around 14 wells assuming they each generated $4m p.a. Not impossible. But equally, not going to happen overnight.

Bullsit (almost apt name by the way) & MaximusD - I'm pleased to inform you I'm not a "lifelong pessimist" or "completely depressed", but thanks for caring all the same.

Looking at the share chart over the years, I think you'll find I'm more of a realist. Whereas your argument seems to be that if you do the same thing enough times, you'll eventually get a different answer. Text book definition of madness I'm afraid, but best of British with your investments. I fear you're going to need it here.

ID 78 - think you’re confusing revenue with market cap.

The latter is the share price multiplied by the number of issued shares & currently stands at just over £50m.

So if Hex’s market cap rose to £64m (based on your 4 x valuation of $20m annual revenues), that would give around a 28% SP rise (£64m - £50m / £50m). Not 2.5 times.

FS & Letitrun - I think we've reached a similar conclusion & suggest it's now time to move on from the salary cut debate.

Opti's one of the many AIM companies that could be poised for greatness. Yet that greatness always seems to disappear just around the corner!

I'm only really holding for Sweetbiotix now - and any deal there's far from nailed on.

Until SOH started cosying up to TW & the Lemmings, I had quite a bit of respect for him. I suspect he's not fundamentally out to mislead investors, but he has got plenty of things wrong and has often been way too trusting of partners' sales projections.

At least now we have a few which sound slightly more promising. But it's early days. And once the initial heavy marketing spend's reduced, it's anyone's guess whether momentum will be maintained.

As Letitrun points out, SOH has at least put his money where his mouth is with a near 10% holding. Many AIM CEOs fail to back their businesses with anything like that amount. Jury's still out on whether his investment will end up serving him (and us) well.

If my alternative's so daft, how do you explain why TEK's SP has performed so abysmally under its model?

Answer: Lucy & Bell